Warlike-Mincemeat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$444

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

138

Trades

438

lifetime

Volume

$24.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-16 13:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

51% 64% +$141

Other

42% 77% -$123

Crypto

4% 14% -$339

Tech

3% 50% -$123

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-16).

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	20	$4.2K	5,717	5,717	+0	open	—	07-16 13:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$1.2K	1,158	1,158	+0	No	+$965	05-24 16:33
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$693	199,570	360	+199,210	No	-$269	06-01 18:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$661	361	361	+0	No	+$61	05-16 08:16
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$578	328	328	+0	Yes	+$78	05-31 16:58
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	4	$466	329	329	+0	Yes	+$22	06-22 18:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$427	237	237	+0	No	+$40	05-27 14:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	4	$426	243	243	+0	Yes	+$26	06-22 18:04
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$421	234	234	+0	No	+$21	06-22 18:02
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	30	$408	4,140	4,140	+0	No	-$185	06-11 04:41
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	3	$407	231	231	+0	No	+$7	06-22 18:20
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	11	$403	939	0	+939	No	-$403	05-25 14:48
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	4	$394	266	266	+0	open	—	06-22 17:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$343	227	227	+0	Yes	+$3	06-09 16:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$336	237	237	+0	No	+$96	06-20 03:54
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	6	$331	487	0	+487	No	-$331	05-26 15:16
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	4	$320	170	170	+0	Yes	+$20	06-01 05:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$315	249	249	+0	No	-$85	05-23 18:43
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$289	149	149	+0	Yes	+$6	04-30 06:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	7	$271	144	144	+0	No	+$12	04-27 13:49
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	21	$265	2,044	0	+2,044	No	-$265	06-18 17:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$250	294	0	+294	No	+$43	04-27 13:08
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	7	$246	316	316	+0	Yes	-$47	06-25 11:34
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	10	$230	265	0	+265	Yes	+$35	06-14 16:35
atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	4	$229	129	129	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$29	06-05 15:43
atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	2	$228	128	128	+0	Alexander Zverev	+$28	06-07 18:55
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$228	121	121	+0	No	+$8	04-27 13:07
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$222	147	147	+0	open	—	06-06 06:55
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$222	122	122	+0	Yes	+$22	05-31 15:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$219	120	120	+0	No	+$19	05-28 05:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 13:11:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5,717	37¢	$2,115	0x23e7cb…
07-01 12:47:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	23	36¢	$8	0x4f546b…
06-30 16:19:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	71	34¢	$24	0xc34246…
06-30 12:51:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x83f67f…
06-30 11:57:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	142	34¢	$48	0x83ef9f…
06-30 11:56:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	34¢	$340	0x60ed15…
06-30 09:28:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x47b623…
06-30 09:18:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	54	34¢	$18	0xb6f87c…
06-25 11:35:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x8a38d5…
06-25 11:34:41	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	26¢	$16	0x5dce09…
06-24 17:31:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	183	35¢	$64	0x7a088e…
06-24 17:23:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	99	35¢	$35	0xf89b05…
06-24 11:32:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	130	76¢	$99	0x3df141…
06-22 18:21:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	927	38¢	$352	0xc4d8b3…
06-22 18:20:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	109	93¢	$101	0x7c0d67…
06-22 18:20:16	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	231	90¢	$207	0x537972…
06-22 18:14:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x572aad…
06-22 18:09:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x3382fd…
06-22 18:08:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	92	38¢	$35	0xf8d401…
06-22 18:05:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,662	37¢	$616	0x78387d…
06-22 18:04:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	93¢	$226	0xac8e71…
06-22 18:03:22	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	329	74¢	$244	0xc606c4…
06-22 18:02:31	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	73¢	$109	0x76cde1…
06-22 18:02:08	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	234	94¢	$221	0x1a13ad…
06-22 17:55:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	811	37¢	$300	0xb25fa1…
06-22 17:51:55	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	266	73¢	$194	0xf14ee3…
06-22 05:35:56	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	114	95¢	$108	0xbbbc12…
06-22 05:00:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	140	35¢	$49	0x6f380b…
06-22 04:51:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0xc953cf…
06-21 18:50:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc12dbb…
06-21 18:50:22	Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County?	Yes	SELL	110	95¢	$105	0xd45c95…
06-21 07:40:34	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0xaf42b5…
06-21 07:37:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0xb50848…
06-21 07:36:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x85e57c…
06-21 05:50:37	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0xe78543…
06-21 05:47:23	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x7c8a8e…
06-21 03:54:44	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x3a8c6b…
06-20 17:00:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xb6b3d8…
06-20 16:46:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x204ac2…
06-20 10:29:05	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	72¢	$60	0xd9a674…
06-20 03:57:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x7e0fc4…
06-20 03:56:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xdf97b8…
06-20 03:54:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	213	94¢	$200	0x556d83…
06-19 09:09:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xeb9481…
06-18 17:51:20	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xea4c29…
06-18 17:48:28	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe8b234…
06-18 17:48:20	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1d483d…
06-18 17:45:35	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb349cf…
06-18 17:44:56	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0xce8906…
06-18 17:44:52	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	358	0¢	$1	0x2f729a…
06-18 17:44:47	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x079652…
06-18 17:44:41	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc3262c…
06-18 17:30:41	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2eb2b9…
06-18 17:12:25	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x581125…
06-18 17:02:04	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x87d61d…
06-18 17:01:43	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x8d4d06…
06-18 16:58:11	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x206629…
06-18 16:58:02	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x2888c4…
06-18 16:57:47	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xee47b1…
06-18 16:57:16	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xbee361…
06-18 05:21:44	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	SELL	115	97¢	$112	0xb0dabd…
06-17 05:12:10	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x8bd331…
06-17 05:09:32	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x9c3f18…
06-17 05:08:41	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x635049…
06-17 05:07:37	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd58edc…
06-17 05:07:23	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x5c4ec3…
06-17 05:07:14	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xefe5c3…
06-17 05:07:10	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xef8d2a…
06-15 06:52:52	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x6e3c33…
06-14 16:35:42	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x2a2731…
06-14 13:33:00	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x346e1f…
06-14 13:31:45	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x8ab78f…
06-14 13:31:40	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xd94130…
06-14 13:31:18	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x9fbdb7…
06-13 15:21:51	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb58bbb…
06-13 15:21:06	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xbfd6f4…
06-13 14:49:57	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x66e000…
06-13 09:47:21	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x4deede…
06-12 18:20:33	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x8cab01…
06-12 17:36:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	127	59¢	$75	0x729fcb…
06-11 15:41:12	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xafb748…
06-11 09:06:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x9b5881…
06-11 09:00:57	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xaa78f6…
06-11 09:00:34	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x182887…
06-11 08:58:16	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	55	99¢	$54	0x8d8362…
06-11 06:50:12	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x2062a7…
06-11 06:47:06	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0x968a03…
06-11 06:45:19	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	136	70¢	$96	0xd56693…
06-11 06:43:28	Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	91¢	$17	0xe92333…
06-11 06:16:43	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x098ab5…
06-11 06:16:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x615a93…
06-11 06:15:07	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	77	11¢	$9	0x6049fe…
06-11 04:41:58	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,140	3¢	$112	0x6c3b4b…
06-10 16:47:36	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0xcf486b…
06-10 15:16:24	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	139	4¢	$5	0x0c1ff2…
06-10 15:11:37	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	238	4¢	$10	0x3cc723…
06-10 15:09:16	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	217	5¢	$10	0x44dd3f…
06-10 13:22:45	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	208	5¢	$10	0xe9bfb9…
06-10 12:40:09	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x037296…
06-10 12:18:15	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	166	5¢	$8	0x6283fb…