Harsh-Statistics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 06-26 05:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

66% 61% +$18

Politics

24% 100% +$0

Crypto

11% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-26).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$272	144	144	+0	open	—	04-29 07:54
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$53	100	100	+0	No	-$49	06-26 05:21
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$45	100	10	+90	No	-$36	05-18 00:47
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	05-11 02:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	05-21 02:36
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 6?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	05-05 02:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C or below on May 9?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	05-08 01:07
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$37	100	0	+100	No	-$37	05-18 00:34
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 30?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	04-29 08:22
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 9?	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	05-08 01:06
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on May 6?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	05-05 02:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	05-21 02:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	04-29 08:18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$33	100	0	+100	Yes	+$67	06-25 05:13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	05-08 01:07
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 15?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	06-14 02:02
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 22?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-21 02:37
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on May 6?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-05 02:08
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$28	81	0	+81	No	-$28	05-13 02:37
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 9?	1	$28	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-08 01:07
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	1	$27	80	0	+80	No	-$27	05-13 02:36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$25	97	0	+97	Yes	+$72	05-18 00:41
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$25	100	0	+100	Yes	+$75	05-24 06:26
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on April 30?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-29 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on May 6?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-05 02:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	05-11 02:38
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$24	100	0	+100	No	-$24	05-24 06:27
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 30?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	04-29 08:28
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 22?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	05-21 02:37
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-15 06:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 05:21:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xadf5c7…
06-25 05:13:37	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xcecb74…
06-25 05:13:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x9d145c…
06-25 05:13:35	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xe25db0…
06-14 02:02:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 15?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5f81f7…
05-24 06:33:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	4¢	$4	0x32fdd5…
05-24 06:30:59	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xb4b224…
05-24 06:30:33	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	16¢	$6	0x221c15…
05-24 06:28:50	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	16¢	$10	0x608a4c…
05-24 06:27:17	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0xd4f8dd…
05-24 06:26:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x3c4dd1…
05-24 06:26:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x0a849c…
05-21 02:37:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 22?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x57ab15…
05-21 02:37:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 22?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xfd754a…
05-21 02:36:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x03b8e8…
05-21 02:36:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x046032…
05-18 00:48:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x664947…
05-18 00:47:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xe7acb5…
05-18 00:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	26¢	$22	0x90bd54…
05-18 00:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x40ad48…
05-18 00:40:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xa5314f…
05-18 00:34:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xcd28dc…
05-15 06:45:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdf49d1…
05-13 02:37:53	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	35¢	$22	0x87e2fc…
05-13 02:37:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	18¢	$15	0x9b0ca3…
05-13 02:37:06	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0xd15efe…
05-13 02:36:39	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0x7d5aad…
05-13 02:36:08	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	9¢	$2	0x237573…
05-13 02:35:59	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x6e5e60…
05-13 02:35:52	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x377019…
05-13 02:35:40	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xe59d83…
05-11 02:38:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x34feb3…
05-11 02:38:03	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x8a2c46…
05-11 02:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf50853…
05-08 01:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x3ab3b8…
05-08 01:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C or higher on May 9?	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xabfb0d…
05-08 01:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 14°C or below on May 9?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xb20321…
05-08 01:06:43	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x33f991…
05-05 02:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C or below on May 6?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x34f364…
05-05 02:08:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on May 6?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3631cb…
05-05 02:07:44	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 6?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xf3c577…
05-05 02:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on May 6?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x22b474…
04-29 08:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on April 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xea1118…
04-29 08:28:26	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc87841…
04-29 08:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 30?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xb30c83…
04-29 08:18:32	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x76c7d2…
04-29 07:54:24	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	144	94¢	$136	0x366d5d…
04-29 07:53:48	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	144	94¢	$136	0x74e1ec…
04-29 07:28:02	Solana Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xf40fce…