Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$45

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved (90d)

707

Trades (90d)

806

4,627 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.80K

$7.16K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-04 03:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 85% -$9

Other

17% 52% -$61

Politics

4% 14% -$20

Tech

1% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes		+0	$0	17¢	$0	$0	10-03 10:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	14	$136	119	118	+1	Yes	+$1	10-02 13:46
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	6	$106	70	70	+0	open	—	10-04 03:31
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	10	$83	83	83	+0	No	-$6	10-04 03:32
will the highest temperature in new york city be 35 36f on february 2	4	$59	36	36	+0	Yes	+$11	02-02 20:57
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?	6	$49	50	50	+0	No	-$4	10-02 02:34
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	6	$48	65	65	+0	open	—	10-03 22:57
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	4	$47	50	50	+0	No	-$7	10-03 02:06
will the highest temperature in new york city be 33 34f on february 2	4	$42	32	32	+0	No	-$4	02-02 19:52
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?	4	$41	45	45	+0	open	—	10-03 01:46
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	4	$40	50	50	+0	Yes	-$5	10-02 16:20
highest temperature in london on february 5 2026 8c	5	$39	28	28	+0	Yes	-$5	02-05 22:21
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	5	$39	25	25	+0	open	—	10-04 03:31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	2	$38	25	25	+0	Yes	-$6	10-03 08:50
highest temperature in nyc on february 4 2026 32 33f	3	$29	18	18	+0	Yes	+$6	02-04 20:56
AWS service disrupted by October 31?	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	10-02 15:48
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	4	$27	50	50	+0	Yes	-$2	10-04 02:54
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	5	$26	45	45	+0	No	-$3	10-03 11:59
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	10-02 12:33
highest temperature in london on february 4 2026 10c	4	$24	15	15	+0	Yes	+$6	02-04 14:55
highest temperature in nyc on february 3 2026 34 35f	6	$22	32	32	+0	No	-$20	02-03 21:10
Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	2	$22	25	25	+0	Yes	-$1	10-03 13:50
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	2	$21	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	10-02 07:07
highest temperature in london on february 11 2026 12c	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	02-11 15:24
highest temperature in nyc on february 10 2026 32 33f	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	02-11 00:12
highest temperature in atlanta on february 4 2026 52 53f	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$2	02-04 19:52
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	5	$16	14	14	-0	No	$0	10-04 03:31
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	5	$16	25	25	+0	open	—	10-04 03:32
highest temperature in nyc on february 11 2026 40 41f	3	$14	9	9	+0	Yes	-$2	02-11 16:44
highest temperature in nyc on february 6 2026 32 33f	2	$14	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	02-06 20:56
highest temperature in atlanta on february 7 2026 52 53f	3	$14	10	10	+0	No	+$4	02-07 20:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 03:32:11	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xbd6a72…
10-04 03:32:05	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0x103317…
10-04 03:31:59	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0x175fb0…
10-04 03:31:53	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x1c7981…
10-04 03:31:46	Will Seattle have more than 6 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0xd28b7c…
10-04 03:31:37	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xe578f9…
10-04 03:31:31	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xa419c0…
10-04 03:31:25	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	72¢	$5	0xf31927…
10-04 03:31:16	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	35	66¢	$23	0xfa460b…
10-04 02:54:59	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	25	24¢	$6	0xc2d310…
10-04 02:00:11	Will Seattle have more than 6 inches of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	25	19¢	$5	0x38df40…
10-04 01:57:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x3a13b5…
10-04 01:18:28	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0x11d311…
10-04 01:02:23	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0x6f1d33…
10-03 23:33:58	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0xdbb982…
10-03 23:32:01	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	25	26¢	$6	0x231904…
10-03 23:30:49	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa22095…
10-03 23:13:16	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xe9946f…
10-03 22:57:13	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	25	29¢	$7	0xe35dca…
10-03 22:32:59	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x5d117f…
10-03 22:11:58	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0xc961f4…
10-03 21:52:01	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x12d734…
10-03 21:03:23	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x8d0a1d…
10-03 18:02:57	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x14c98e…
10-03 18:02:12	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0x5291fc…
10-03 17:59:54	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xf0c5e9…
10-03 17:58:30	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xf12c7c…
10-03 15:33:29	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x9ce783…
10-03 15:30:59	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x9fb78e…
10-03 13:50:53	Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	25	42¢	$10	0x1e1dab…
10-03 11:59:06	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xe3a891…
10-03 11:31:05	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x87c664…
10-03 10:51:50	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	21¢	$5	0x4dee7f…
10-03 10:49:59	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0xd03e65…
10-03 09:37:26	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0x9670e1…
10-03 09:24:00	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0xfa639a…
10-03 09:24:00	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x54a1ce…
10-03 09:24:00	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x081b28…
10-03 08:50:54	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	65¢	$16	0x7ed398…
10-03 08:11:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0xd54e5c…
10-03 07:39:11	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd0700a…
10-03 07:39:11	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x9e74c5…
10-03 06:05:41	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x5a81e8…
10-03 05:56:51	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xd19271…
10-03 05:14:20	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0xe85d3f…
10-03 05:14:20	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0xc3bc56…
10-03 05:14:20	Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x634141…
10-03 04:05:09	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0x572733…
10-03 03:34:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x08035b…
10-03 02:06:51	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0x184e4d…
10-03 01:46:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	25	25¢	$6	0x38e094…
10-03 01:27:42	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x31e070…
10-03 01:07:50	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0xa5d00c…
10-02 23:58:00	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xbd8787…
10-02 23:57:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x84c3bc…
10-02 23:43:32	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0xbaee6d…
10-02 23:10:42	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x05b94a…
10-02 23:02:39	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x465fa0…
10-02 22:50:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xd040cc…
10-02 22:47:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0xdf45b2…
10-02 22:42:14	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x649310…
10-02 22:35:54	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x39d693…
10-02 22:19:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xf03013…
10-02 21:59:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-11 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x8e1777…
10-02 21:38:02	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0x40d420…
10-02 20:53:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0x58ad6d…
10-02 20:26:56	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	22¢	$6	0x6d8432…
10-02 18:21:54	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x7c7e7c…
10-02 18:08:33	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x3d6763…
10-02 17:43:21	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xf9a34a…
10-02 16:20:44	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	SELL	25	27¢	$7	0x4165a1…
10-02 16:17:06	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf13fd9…
10-02 16:17:06	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0032d1…
10-02 16:17:03	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x5f7cb2…
10-02 15:48:35	AWS service disrupted by October 31?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x0ebf67…
10-02 14:27:42	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0x410212…
10-02 14:03:05	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0x8e0b99…
10-02 13:55:09	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in October?	No	BUY	25	46¢	$12	0x631ad5…
10-02 13:46:53	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xe79a3c…
10-02 12:33:26	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x04e7e2…
10-02 12:19:00	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd63aa5…
10-02 12:18:44	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xbdd15a…
10-02 12:18:35	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa83795…
10-02 12:18:02	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	19	93¢	$17	0x7d05d0…
10-02 11:36:08	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x87d707…
10-02 11:36:06	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	SELL	18	93¢	$17	0x131073…
10-02 10:59:48	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x980982…
10-02 10:55:44	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0x2bc5ed…
10-02 10:39:21	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0xf36f97…
10-02 10:03:35	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x448925…
10-02 10:03:35	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x1787f6…
10-02 09:59:11	Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x8b8e34…
10-02 09:58:45	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x868036…
10-02 09:58:39	Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xbe0884…
10-02 07:07:02	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xc2f729…
10-02 06:26:48	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	27¢	$5	0xc8465f…
10-02 06:22:20	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5f5965…
10-02 04:48:53	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xec02f5…
10-02 04:48:47	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xfa78c9…
10-02 04:33:50	Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x9d271e…