Friendly-Cephalopod — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

1,222

Trades

7,849

lifetime

Volume

$367.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 02:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 245 days

Categories

Politics

56% 63% -$1,194

Other

34% 66% -$7,105

Sports

8% 56% -$162

Crypto

1% 67% -$2,012

Pop-Culture

0% 56% -$71

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	93	$7.5K	7,614	3,812	+3,801	No	+$493	05-22 01:02
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 spread home 3pt5	6	$7.0K	7,500	0	+7,500	Netherlands	-$6,960	06-20 17:52
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?	6	$6.9K	4,006	4,006	+0	No	+$1,102	04-30 22:17
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	6	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	Under	+$180	06-20 21:24
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	50	$5.4K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$318	06-11 00:59
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	55	$5.3K	3,717	3,833	-116	No	+$717	05-25 03:44
will plc win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	174	$4.7K	5,551	1,380	+4,171	Yes	+$1,234	04-24 19:00
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	19	$4.6K	2,935	3,135	-200	Yes	-$164	06-08 18:10
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	11	$4.4K	3,197	1,399	+1,798	No	+$160	05-14 02:03
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	50	$4.2K	4,014	1,308	+2,706	Yes	+$1,050	06-25 17:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	37	$4.1K	2,509	2,509	+0	Yes	+$41	06-17 23:52
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	2	$4.1K	4,237	0	+4,237	Yes	+$165	05-17 07:47
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	30	$4.0K	2,041	2,041	+0	Yes	+$68	07-06 22:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$30	06-09 21:18
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$51	06-28 14:32
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	9	$3.9K	4,200	0	+4,200	No	+$297	06-12 13:47
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	44	$3.8K	2,459	2,309	+150	Yes	+$24	06-20 13:40
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	39	$3.6K	2,051	2,051	+0	Yes	+$89	06-22 00:55
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	60	$3.5K	1,378	2,410	-1,032	Yes	+$259	03-09 01:30
will plc win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	36	$3.2K	2,575	2,538	+37	No	+$401	04-24 23:19
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	33	$3.0K	1,704	1,704	+0	Yes	+$243	06-21 21:36
iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	39	$3.0K	1,616	1,616	+0	Yes	-$5	07-15 01:20
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	88	$3.0K	1,787	1,787	+0	Yes	+$382	07-19 22:48
will trump praise allah by june 30	6	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$6	06-10 13:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	22	$3.0K	3,213	3,213	+0	No	-$1,159	07-19 21:48
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	26	$2.8K	2,017	2,017	+0	Yes	-$765	06-18 00:03
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	36	$2.7K	3,361	3,361	+0	Yes	-$1,786	06-21 22:04
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	20	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$360	06-18 03:20
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	27	$2.4K	1,419	1,419	+0	Yes	+$363	04-13 16:26
Trump kiss by May 31?	34	$2.4K	1,401	1,411	-10	Yes	+$427	05-20 16:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:58:27	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	126	77¢	$97	0x6027aa…
10-27 02:54:45	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	124	76¢	$94	0x1a0075…
10-27 02:47:38	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xf97736…
10-26 22:33:59	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	192	98¢	$188	0xaa1f7e…
10-26 21:44:23	Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "slop"?	Yes	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0x5daae7…
10-26 20:48:08	Will Unai Simon win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Goalkeeper of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	74	77¢	$57	0xbdaf56…
10-26 20:45:21	will merriam webster 2026 word of the year contain slop	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xb28464…
10-26 20:44:59	will merriam webster 2026 word of the year contain slop	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x2e9846…
10-26 03:21:59	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	99	99¢	$98	0x49a440…
10-26 03:21:09	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x672524…
10-26 02:36:51	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xcd5629…
10-26 02:36:50	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	34	78¢	$26	0x3fc610…
10-25 23:22:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	96	6¢	$6	0x46bdbd…
10-25 22:16:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	26	22¢	$6	0xa3437e…
10-25 22:06:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0xbe934a…
10-25 16:37:27	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	175	99¢	$173	0x6b7825…
10-25 16:37:11	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	185	99¢	$183	0xbb5f1a…
10-25 16:00:50	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x475710…
10-25 01:38:14	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x7f9251…
10-25 01:38:02	Will "The Dreamed Adventure" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x63e14c…
10-25 01:37:09	Will Vozinha rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0xfd769f…
10-25 01:36:35	Will Alysa Liu rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xed944e…
10-25 01:35:50	Will Folarin Balogun rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0x172ee6…
10-25 01:04:56	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb86403…
10-25 01:04:20	Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0xf5620f…
10-25 00:34:11	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x57ed7a…
10-24 23:53:11	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xc2d1f8…
10-24 23:20:21	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xdb3595…
10-24 23:20:21	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0xc587e8…
10-24 17:43:17	Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x95e53f…
10-24 17:40:08	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xd598fe…
10-24 15:09:53	Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0xf77552…
10-24 15:09:23	Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x26dde6…
10-23 22:16:47	Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0xe3eb37…
10-23 20:45:44	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0xf0c999…
10-22 23:03:38	Will "Wildwood" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x8d1f3f…
10-22 20:10:09	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	77	67¢	$52	0x48d580…
10-22 19:12:35	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x0ae238…
10-22 18:32:39	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x64d003…
10-22 17:01:59	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xce473e…
10-22 16:39:38	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xd557aa…
10-22 16:12:27	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0xd7d145…
10-22 15:39:42	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x96e84e…
10-22 15:39:39	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0xbe1833…
10-22 15:39:30	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x6521f1…
10-22 15:39:26	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Nicki Minaj by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xb0a4d8…
10-22 15:14:23	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xf75cbd…
10-22 14:47:17	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd7376e…
10-22 14:45:54	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0x8da3c2…
10-22 01:57:44	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x6747bd…
10-21 22:16:12	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xa2bec8…
10-21 22:15:56	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x557354…
10-21 22:08:17	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xfbae02…
10-21 22:08:17	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x1e26f3…
10-21 22:07:11	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xebb0b6…
10-21 22:06:57	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x149b7d…
10-21 21:31:48	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x8aad46…
10-21 21:29:08	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xea2cae…
10-21 21:26:36	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x23acdc…
10-21 21:07:14	Will Vozinha rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xbb04cb…
10-21 20:36:45	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xee3dbd…
10-21 20:27:45	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x4a2ff6…
10-21 20:27:42	Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xf11841…
10-21 20:24:56	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x39c419…
10-21 19:23:44	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0xfd01dc…
10-21 19:23:41	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x27ee5b…
10-21 17:11:38	will trump say binance during his roundtable october 21	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x41c09d…
10-21 17:11:38	will trump say binance during his roundtable october 21	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x210cd8…
10-21 17:10:42	Will Trump say "Cybercrime" during his roundtable?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x56c589…
10-21 17:10:32	Will Trump say "Cybercrime" during his roundtable?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x8fa3c5…
10-21 16:42:54	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x856ebe…
10-21 16:08:32	Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x92fab5…
10-21 14:51:39	Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfc50cb…
10-21 12:17:56	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x61a85a…
10-21 11:07:08	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31?	No	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0x733020…
10-21 11:06:47	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31?	No	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0xcb1d9c…
10-20 14:53:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	80	73¢	$58	0x76f56e…
10-20 14:48:08	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x87ce4c…
10-20 09:05:04	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x35c0eb…
10-20 07:35:11	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xfc15f0…
10-19 23:47:24	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xfc6e43…
10-19 23:23:06	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3efffb…
10-19 22:53:06	Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2703c0…
10-19 22:48:18	Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0x83caa3…
10-19 20:30:35	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	80	71¢	$57	0xfd8169…
10-19 20:30:35	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0xca52f8…
10-19 17:37:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x54f9b2…
10-19 16:57:03	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	204	73¢	$149	0x8801e3…
10-19 11:47:08	Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x80276a…
10-18 20:13:17	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$62	0x8fed9d…
10-18 20:13:02	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x296402…
10-18 16:46:17	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x7a3341…
10-18 16:46:02	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x20ac2f…
10-18 16:20:00	Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x392ab3…
10-18 16:17:47	Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$81	0x98974e…
10-17 23:46:30	will wildwood be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x7f55fb…
10-17 18:34:54	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x5ee1c0…
10-17 18:33:53	Will "Whalefall" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xf4678e…
10-17 18:27:57	Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf7aff7…
10-17 17:53:45	Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xbf4667…