Friendly-Cephalopod — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$763

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

4,590

lifetime

Volume

$246.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 22:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Politics

58% 87% +$412

Other

31% 71% +$345

Sports

8% 100% +$6

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 177 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	91	$7.4K	7,437	3,812	+3,624	open	—	05-22 01:02
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 spread home 3pt5	6	$7.0K	7,500	0	+7,500	open	—	06-20 17:52
fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	6	$5.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	06-20 21:24
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	49	$5.1K	3,000	2,733	+267	open	—	06-11 00:59
will plc win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	174	$4.7K	5,551	1,380	+4,171	open	—	04-24 19:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	52	$4.6K	3,717	2,813	+903	open	—	05-25 03:44
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	11	$4.4K	3,197	1,399	+1,798	No	+$160	05-14 02:03
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	2	$4.1K	4,237	0	+4,237	open	—	05-17 07:47
world cup folarin balogun to play vspt belgium 20260702164610264	30	$4.0K	2,041	2,041	+0	open	—	07-06 22:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-09 21:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	36	$3.9K	2,309	2,509	-200	open	—	06-17 23:52
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-28 14:32
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	9	$3.9K	4,200	0	+4,200	open	—	06-12 13:47
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	60	$3.5K	1,378	2,410	-1,032	open	—	03-09 01:30
will plc win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	36	$3.2K	2,575	2,538	+37	open	—	04-24 23:19
iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	39	$3.0K	1,616	1,616	+0	open	—	07-15 01:20
will trump praise allah by june 30	6	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	06-10 13:24
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	22	$3.0K	3,213	3,213	+0	open	—	07-19 21:48
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	26	$2.8K	2,017	2,017	+0	open	—	06-18 00:03
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	27	$2.4K	1,419	1,419	+0	open	—	04-13 16:26
Trump kiss by May 31?	34	$2.4K	1,401	1,411	-10	open	—	05-20 16:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	25	$2.4K	1,612	1,612	+0	open	—	05-29 15:50
will cd win the third most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	43	$2.3K	1,215	1,451	-236	open	—	04-12 15:37
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	5	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-20 19:05
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	17	$2.3K	1,288	1,288	+0	open	—	07-19 23:15
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	32	$2.2K	1,800	800	+1,000	open	—	06-16 22:31
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	13	$2.2K	1,130	1,130	+0	open	—	07-06 14:23
fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	3	$2.1K	2,257	0	+2,257	open	—	06-21 01:35
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	16	$2.1K	1,900	470	+1,430	open	—	05-10 16:11
will trump post ufc on truth social this week 20260622154014267	3	$2.0K	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	07-01 03:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 22:15:37	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	16	82¢	$13	0xf8a9d5…
07-20 17:44:42	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x018bb0…
07-20 17:30:09	iran successfully targets shipping by july 22 20260718200842464	Yes	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0xf4f504…
07-20 17:27:27	will trump fly in original air force 1 again this month 20260710003923849	No	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0x56568f…
07-20 17:27:27	will trump fly in original air force 1 again this month 20260710003923849	No	BUY	34	81¢	$28	0x41206c…
07-20 15:54:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,100	42¢	$459	0x8046ed…
07-20 14:50:19	will a trailer for avengers doomsday premiere at sdcc 2026 20260713164810623	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0xd496b2…
07-20 14:47:43	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xc373d5…
07-20 14:40:43	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xeccd6c…
07-20 14:21:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x0a6f0f…
07-20 13:59:37	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x340144…
07-20 13:59:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xb91d1d…
07-20 13:56:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xb4b35f…
07-20 13:52:01	will a trailer for avengers doomsday premiere at sdcc 2026 20260713164810623	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x395132…
07-20 13:33:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xbef52c…
07-20 13:01:58	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xf340c2…
07-20 03:09:06	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x83aad2…
07-20 03:04:19	will rupert murdoch attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357121	No	BUY	169	94¢	$159	0xa486a2…
07-20 00:28:16	iran successfully targets shipping on july 20	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xee1246…
07-19 23:15:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1,098	99¢	$1,083	0x3154eb…
07-19 22:59:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x85ea60…
07-19 22:59:39	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x45b1d0…
07-19 22:57:54	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xed817d…
07-19 22:57:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5ae5f5…
07-19 22:57:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	171	86¢	$147	0x5a01dc…
07-19 22:48:58	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	71	90¢	$64	0x846ec0…
07-19 22:48:28	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	456	91¢	$415	0x32fdeb…
07-19 21:48:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	1,818	12¢	$211	0xe1cddd…
07-19 21:46:21	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x15d771…
07-19 21:06:34	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xdbc5b4…
07-19 20:24:13	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	243	2¢	$5	0xb159a2…
07-19 20:17:16	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	149	7¢	$10	0xe462c6…
07-19 20:14:57	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x63a3cf…
07-19 20:14:52	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0x70de1d…
07-19 19:03:54	will the announcers say ishowspeed during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403334	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xc52967…
07-18 23:09:33	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	26	100¢	$25	0xc4b202…
07-18 20:44:34	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xacad3d…
07-18 20:43:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts	Yes	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0xb20838…
07-18 17:25:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xa6e2f2…
07-18 17:15:01	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xd8f366…
07-18 16:52:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	82	11¢	$9	0x71c8f6…
07-18 16:52:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	43	11¢	$5	0x1c4147…
07-18 16:34:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	130	6¢	$8	0xd01c13…
07-18 14:51:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x1f4248…
07-18 13:36:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x04ebaa…
07-17 03:16:52	will claudia sheinbaum attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357142	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x985d97…
07-17 03:03:21	will trump accuse venezuela of election interference by july 16	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x5b213b…
07-17 02:58:03	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	51	54¢	$28	0x05c852…
07-17 02:36:30	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xedb8cc…
07-17 02:36:21	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x49abc4…
07-17 02:17:33	will claudia sheinbaum attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357142	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x006c5c…
07-17 01:59:10	will rosalia attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357136	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xc30035…
07-17 01:52:13	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xe20ccc…
07-17 01:50:58	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x1df345…
07-17 01:49:01	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x4351d3…
07-17 01:47:58	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	SELL	12	91¢	$10	0xd33a82…
07-17 01:34:18	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	51	60¢	$31	0x577d5c…
07-17 01:28:06	will trump accuse venezuela of election interference by july 16	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xbf38b0…
07-17 01:27:45	will trump accuse iran of election interference by july 16 20260714013930796	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x0c05d4…
07-17 01:27:09	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0xafb01f…
07-17 01:25:56	will trump accuse russia of election interference by july 16 20260714013930798	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xfd5bee…
07-17 01:22:46	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	SELL	84	98¢	$82	0xf4dbd2…
07-17 01:18:49	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	SELL	9	75¢	$6	0x09fa3e…
07-17 01:15:31	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x223a9a…
07-17 01:08:46	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x98b9fc…
07-17 00:54:56	will trump say interfere or interference during speech to the nation 20260714024619054	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x3bfec9…
07-17 00:38:52	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x77936e…
07-17 00:12:29	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	BUY	24	80¢	$19	0xc8e8c9…
07-16 12:29:56	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0xe12417…
07-15 20:56:32	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	291	31¢	$90	0x2036f3…
07-15 20:56:13	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	32	31¢	$10	0x34f947…
07-15 20:53:56	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	37	32¢	$12	0x2bd7a5…
07-15 16:17:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$0	0x9380d3…
07-15 15:57:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x46ee0b…
07-15 15:55:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$0	0x7fe09b…
07-15 14:11:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	393	2¢	$8	0x850a93…
07-15 14:06:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	294	2¢	$6	0x9c7166…
07-15 13:33:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x8335c2…
07-15 13:10:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x33a325…
07-15 12:34:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xb37ca5…
07-15 10:13:32	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	SELL	310	0¢	$1	0xfc0e0a…
07-15 01:20:01	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	212	97¢	$206	0xbed4cd…
07-14 23:00:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	274	2¢	$5	0x5e1b04…
07-14 23:00:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0xe74ade…
07-14 22:47:47	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x5b422c…
07-14 22:45:22	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x8b4c20…
07-14 22:41:02	will trump speak to maria corina machado in july 20260626154217430	Yes	SELL	55	11¢	$6	0xb37562…
07-14 22:36:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	137	92¢	$126	0x899302…
07-14 22:25:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	284	93¢	$263	0x8293c2…
07-14 22:25:13	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0xeb0469…
07-14 22:22:46	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	22	93¢	$21	0xe0e34c…
07-14 22:17:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	626	2¢	$16	0xb1c461…
07-14 22:17:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	606	20¢	$121	0x6a283b…
07-14 21:39:07	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	91	96¢	$87	0xfbfdb8…
07-14 21:38:41	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x6ff5fb…
07-14 20:48:32	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	170	25¢	$42	0x46a516…
07-14 17:14:01	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 shots lamine yamal gte3	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x875530…
07-14 16:47:59	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	61	95¢	$59	0x4fdfb2…
07-14 16:47:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x3d24e1…
07-14 16:46:34	iran successfully targets shipping on july 12	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x68c219…