Formal-Decline — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$273

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

84.4%

Resolved

129

Trades

323

lifetime

Volume

$105.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$328

Open exposure

$175

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 09-25 18:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 92% +$137

Other

29% 88% -$159

Politics

14% 84% -$252

Tech

4% 67% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		+202	$161	86¢	$175	+$14	07-16 05:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	4	$9.2K	4,595	4,595	+0	No	$0	04-01 06:38
crint ind nzl 2026 01 31	9	$7.9K	4,228	3,728	+500	India	+$2	01-31 19:39
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	16	$6.3K	3,200	3,200	+0	Gold	+$13	01-24 11:58
will the price of ethereum be less than 1700 on march 11	4	$5.2K	5,230	0	+5,230	No	+$5	03-11 10:36
will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on march 18	2	$5.2K	5,200	0	+5,200	No	+$5	03-17 06:47
will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	2	$3.6K	3,594	0	+3,594	No	+$4	03-08 04:25
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 0 19	3	$3.2K	3,200	0	+3,200	No	+$3	03-11 04:07
si hit 65 low jan 2026 292 389 318	8	$2.9K	1,500	1,436	+64	No	+$1	01-30 18:19
will ethereum reach 2700 march 16 22	4	$2.6K	2,604	0	+2,604	No	+$3	03-21 17:58
will gold gc hit low 4450 by end of february 844 276 171 389 959 616 957 814 619 837	2	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	No	+$2	02-27 19:11
ETHGAS FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$2.3K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$41	01-22 06:17
will ethereum dip to 1500 march 16 22	4	$2.2K	2,214	0	+2,214	No	+$2	03-22 07:03
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	11	$2.2K	1,079	1,102	-22	Yes	+$2	01-27 21:18
gc hit 4200 low jan 2026 289 371 251 294	4	$2.2K	1,083	1,083	+0	No	+$2	01-31 16:29
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 23	10	$2.1K	988	1,200	-212	Yes	-$2	01-22 17:29
will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	3	$2.1K	2,061	0	+2,061	No	+$2	02-27 19:09
donald trump of truth social posts february 27 march 6 120 139	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	No	+$2	03-04 04:49
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 180 199	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$2	02-17 15:47
Immunefi FDV above $800M one day after launch?	5	$1.9K	1,412	457	+955	No	+$5	01-23 07:47
ethereum above 1500 on march 13	2	$1.7K	1,700	0	+1,700	Yes	+$2	03-12 14:26
will the price of ethereum be less than 1500 on march 13	2	$1.7K	1,662	0	+1,662	No	+$2	03-12 14:28
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?	5	$1.6K	1,674	0	+1,674	Yes	+$27	01-28 18:00
ethereum above 2300 on march 12	2	$1.4K	1,380	0	+1,380	No	+$1	03-12 06:20
us bank failure by january 31	3	$1.3K	694	694	+0	Yes	+$3	01-28 16:03
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$1.3K	1,312	0	+1,312	Yes	+$3	01-28 18:02
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 0 39	4	$1.3K	773	555	+218	No	+$13	04-06 13:56
will don lemon be criminally charged	3	$1.3K	1,285	0	+1,285	Yes	+$2	01-30 21:59
ETHGAS FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$1.2K	500	700	-200	No	-$5	01-22 06:20
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	15	$1.1K	572	572	+0	No	+$3	07-23 10:26
donald trump of truth social posts march 6 march 13 20 39	3	$1.1K	1,120	0	+1,120	No	+$1	03-09 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 18:41:41	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	294	96¢	$282	0x58c73d…
07-23 10:26:10	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	417	99¢	$415	0x506d99…
07-23 10:25:55	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0x5b358f…
07-16 05:31:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	192	80¢	$154	0x14d3d0…
07-16 05:02:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	154	100¢	$154	0x5265cc…
07-16 05:01:08	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0xc75d69…
07-16 04:58:40	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x813f20…
07-13 12:38:01	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x837951…
07-06 12:24:52	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xde12aa…
07-06 09:16:07	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x527123…
07-06 09:13:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xfad108…
07-06 09:07:34	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc7905d…
07-06 08:54:14	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x05464f…
07-06 08:49:58	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xed9252…
07-06 08:47:22	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x705140…
07-06 08:46:29	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1b162c…
07-06 07:31:31	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe5f506…
07-06 07:25:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe2cae0…
07-06 06:27:59	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	372	99¢	$370	0xedb077…
07-06 05:52:56	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x021271…
06-19 17:39:52	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0xaa48a6…
06-19 17:37:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$73	0xa3693f…
06-08 04:54:00	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc84e2a…
06-05 07:54:52	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	414	97¢	$400	0x834e16…
05-30 10:55:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x278ba7…
05-30 10:53:57	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x1b6ad2…
05-25 14:38:46	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	No	BUY	394	100¢	$393	0xa3e0a3…
05-20 17:26:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	393	100¢	$393	0xa35243…
05-15 12:40:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x62cc08…
04-30 14:27:14	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	421	95¢	$400	0x6cb674…
04-30 14:27:02	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x5ffe76…
04-30 14:23:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xe319b4…
04-19 18:42:12	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xc1826b…
04-18 16:13:30	Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	564	100¢	$564	0xd677a9…
04-17 17:45:24	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 0 39	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7f9e22…
04-17 17:45:12	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	51	8¢	$4	0xb80c54…
04-17 17:45:02	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	109	8¢	$9	0x1015da…
04-14 17:00:22	donald trump of truth social posts april 17 april 24 0 19	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x17a708…
04-14 17:00:12	donald trump of truth social posts april 17 april 24 0 19	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xa36a21…
04-14 16:46:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf7bc3d…
04-14 16:45:40	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf2652a…
04-13 18:56:11	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 0 39	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5b623b…
04-12 23:49:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	91	97¢	$88	0x8cc32d…
04-12 21:26:51	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x74a8ad…
04-12 18:00:17	cricipl mum roy 2026 04 12	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4d2233…
04-12 17:55:19	donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 20 39	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x35aee1…
04-12 17:26:43	cricipl mum roy 2026 04 12	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x08d552…
04-12 17:26:29	cricipl mum roy 2026 04 12	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa546a5…
04-12 17:25:59	cricipl mum roy 2026 04 12	Royal Challengers Bangalore	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xd7265a…
04-12 11:59:57	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x2bfbf1…
04-12 10:35:35	donald trump of truth social posts april 10 april 17 20 39	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb0c1e2…
04-12 10:32:19	ethereum above 1600 on april 14	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xcb665c…
04-12 10:32:09	ethereum above 1700 on april 13	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x040e11…
04-12 10:26:37	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 240plus	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf4e29e…
04-09 15:53:47	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on april 10	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xfe0bc3…
04-09 08:32:47	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xee16ad…
04-09 08:20:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xbf6910…
04-06 13:56:01	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 0 39	No	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0xbc19ed…
04-06 13:55:49	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 0 39	No	SELL	289	98¢	$283	0xecf474…
04-06 13:55:39	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 0 39	No	SELL	193	98¢	$189	0x86ad3f…
04-06 09:23:33	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x76b5bd…
04-06 09:23:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xde203b…
04-05 08:04:13	elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 0 39	No	BUY	773	97¢	$747	0xe4ecc8…
04-05 08:01:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x602496…
04-05 07:39:07	will trump say ufc this week april 5	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5569b4…
04-05 07:37:41	will trump say april fool this week april 5	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x20273b…
04-05 07:37:25	will trump say gay this week april 5	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4735bb…
04-05 07:36:37	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x665c18…
04-05 07:36:25	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xe20c09…
04-05 07:36:09	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x46d123…
04-05 07:35:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x90790f…
04-05 07:34:39	will mlb be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 7	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x304105…
04-05 07:34:19	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 7	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x063268…
04-02 18:14:57	will the price of bitcoin be less than 58000 on april 3	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x4296d0…
04-02 18:14:41	will the price of bitcoin be less than 58000 on april 3	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xb0e118…
04-02 18:12:11	ethereum above 1500 on april 5	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x08a3a1…
04-02 18:11:35	ethereum above 2500 on april 4	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x675861…
04-02 18:11:21	ethereum above 1500 on april 4	Yes	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0xb44e9e…
04-02 18:10:17	bitcoin above 58k on april 3	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xad4275…
04-02 18:09:25	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 240plus	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf841ba…
04-02 00:56:43	bitcoin above 62k on april 2	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x0ffea5…
04-01 19:48:03	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xc4c1b3…
04-01 06:38:53	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	4,395	100¢	$4,391	0x82199c…
03-29 09:09:42	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 580plus	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x592d63…
03-28 16:05:37	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xeb6c8b…
03-27 18:10:21	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 28 2026	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x279296…
03-27 18:10:07	will israel take military action in lebanon on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd44a32…
03-27 18:09:13	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xfc988b…
03-27 16:44:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 580plus	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3fd143…
03-27 16:44:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 20 39	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd964f8…
03-27 16:41:43	bitcoin above 78k on march 29	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6a04bc…
03-26 16:09:07	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	4,595	100¢	$4,591	0xce2157…
03-26 11:34:45	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0x04b770…
03-25 14:48:41	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 26	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xa2d1ac…
03-25 14:48:31	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 26	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd60475…
03-25 14:47:15	will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of march	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x659bf9…
03-25 14:46:59	will gold gc hit low 3000 by end of march	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf72c7c…
03-25 14:32:19	Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x6c03e4…
03-25 14:30:51	EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	72	83¢	$60	0xabb47f…
03-24 13:10:49	will bitcoin dip to 56k march 23 29	No	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x26b67a…