Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$44

Unrealized P&L

-$49

Hit rate

30.5%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

454 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$278

$6.28K lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$136

10 positions

First seen

2026-09-02

last 10-29 17:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

68% 61% -$90

Politics

26% 46% -$71

Sports

3% 33% -$38

Tech

2% 50% +$4

Crypto

1% 33% -$15

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	+30	$21	98¢	$29	+$8	10-29 09:06
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+31	$25	92¢	$28	+$3	10-20 05:23
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	+41	$23	62¢	$25	+$3	09-26 20:24
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+39	$21	56¢	$22	+$1	10-07 12:02
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+26	$14	60¢	$16	+$2	10-05 12:59
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+36	$31	32¢	$12	-$19	10-03 13:21
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+9	$3	17¢	$2	-$1	09-06 04:56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+180	$40	1¢	$1	-$39	10-27 21:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	+21	$4	0¢	$0	-$4	09-11 00:10
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+11	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	09-08 01:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$300	178	178	+0	open	—	10-22 22:28
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$199	113	113	+0	open	—	10-07 15:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	5	$196	115	115	+0	open	—	10-29 09:05
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	2	$171	107	107	+0	open	—	09-23 16:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$170	276	276	+0	Yes	-$10	10-19 13:53
Will Yike Win the LEC 2026 Summer Split MVP?	4	$162	99	99	+0	No	+$17	09-13 14:58
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$161	310	179	+132	No	-$39	10-15 12:30
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$135	136	136	+0	open	—	10-22 22:28
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	2	$132	98	98	+0	open	—	09-19 01:57
Will Phil Owen win the next Brighton mayoral election?	2	$113	60	60	+0	No	+$3	10-09 20:24
itf lagarr1 khazim1 2026 09 17	11	$112	80	80	+0	Florent Lagarrigue	+$22	09-17 13:01
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	7	$112	147	75	+72	Yes	+$44	10-02 15:22
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	9	$109	127	65	+62	open	—	10-26 22:25
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	2	$104	56	56	+0	Yes	+$4	09-27 10:21
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox	4	$83	86	86	+0	Colorado Rockies	-$37	09-27 00:30
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	7	$82	108	3	+105	No	-$77	09-27 22:33
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$80	62	62	+0	open	—	10-25 23:10
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	3	$75	61	30	+31	open	—	10-20 05:23
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	3	$71	50	50	+0	Yes	+$1	10-17 02:28
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	3	$69	55	25	+30	open	—	10-29 09:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$69	72	36	+36	open	—	10-03 13:21
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	6	$69	67	67	+0	open	—	09-23 20:50
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	2	$66	40	40	+0	open	—	10-11 16:13
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	2	$64	54	54	+0	open	—	10-15 10:47
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	3	$64	80	0	+80	Yes	+$16	09-29 16:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	3	$63	71	70	+0	open	—	10-11 02:53
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	3	$62	38	38	+0	Yes	+$12	09-20 16:12
Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$62	128	128	+0	open	—	10-22 22:28
Counter-Strike: EXODIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	6	$62	63	63	+0	cancelled	+$2	09-24 18:17
wta hercog gormaz 2026 09 21	4	$60	41	41	+0	Leyre Romero Gormaz	+$0	09-21 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:45:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0xf682ea…
10-29 09:06:44	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x5950f4…
10-29 09:05:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x75875d…
10-28 14:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x7c6d82…
10-27 21:23:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xdcda79…
10-26 22:25:17	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$4	0x45fc17…
10-26 18:56:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x38479b…
10-26 10:15:15	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x68f0cd…
10-25 23:10:09	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	62	64¢	$40	0x5d2458…
10-25 19:34:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	9¢	$3	0xceb4d4…
10-25 12:47:00	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0xe94cc3…
10-23 20:34:03	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x7c723c…
10-22 22:28:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	58	83¢	$48	0xb94f82…
10-22 22:28:15	Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	128	17¢	$22	0xe7be52…
10-22 22:28:00	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	136	44¢	$60	0x502b13…
10-21 14:38:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x6eb889…
10-20 11:41:50	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0x33c9ad…
10-20 05:23:51	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0xb638c8…
10-19 19:40:14	Will there be between 20 and 34 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x0e5bb9…
10-19 18:21:54	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0xa9696c…
10-19 13:53:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	103	14¢	$14	0x755a53…
10-19 10:44:45	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?	Yes	BUY	54	27¢	$14	0xfaa4a7…
10-18 19:04:36	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,500,000 and 4,750,000?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xd59d6c…
10-18 18:09:15	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x9ec87d…
10-18 17:27:26	Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	SELL	18	23¢	$4	0x61f57a…
10-17 02:28:54	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	SELL	36	75¢	$27	0x407e8e…
10-17 02:26:09	Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x1637b0…
10-16 19:02:40	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	SELL	14	66¢	$9	0x889e14…
10-16 15:03:46	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x62507f…
10-16 14:39:40	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x476989…
10-16 06:00:45	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xabfaf1…
10-15 21:44:54	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x46bf8c…
10-15 12:30:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0x463ccf…
10-15 12:30:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x101196…
10-15 10:47:30	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	54	35¢	$19	0xcad599…
10-15 00:09:26	Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xa59931…
10-15 00:06:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x1e6a93…
10-15 00:06:00	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x0adae6…
10-14 23:46:06	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	35	62¢	$22	0x1bfada…
10-14 18:13:07	Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x42b986…
10-14 12:36:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	60	38¢	$23	0xc3c0da…
10-14 12:35:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0xec1d67…
10-14 12:35:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0xd5001e…
10-14 12:35:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	86	38¢	$33	0x55c54e…
10-14 12:33:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	179	34¢	$61	0xaca883…
10-14 12:30:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xb956b3…
10-14 12:30:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x1976ac…
10-14 07:06:25	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$8	0x742660…
10-14 05:16:17	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x43f9d0…
10-14 04:56:58	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xd47a89…
10-14 04:30:05	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x71e784…
10-14 04:30:05	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x33af21…
10-13 22:47:40	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x85b181…
10-13 22:34:46	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x4c8f30…
10-13 17:29:45	Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	136	55¢	$75	0x0856bb…
10-13 01:38:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	85¢	$60	0x584ba6…
10-13 01:37:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xf58529…
10-12 14:19:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3959e9…
10-11 23:26:26	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x67e1e1…
10-11 19:23:27	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xb16f6a…
10-11 16:13:06	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x181276…
10-11 11:25:09	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd85cc6…
10-11 02:53:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	40¢	$28	0x6b35b9…
10-10 23:13:39	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0x9956ff…
10-10 16:17:10	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?	Yes	BUY	39	7¢	$3	0x02ba45…
10-10 12:43:21	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	30¢	$12	0xb145be…
10-10 11:06:31	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	Yes	BUY	38	44¢	$17	0x0f365a…
10-10 10:22:49	Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x915011…
10-10 10:21:16	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xa03f06…
10-10 01:24:29	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x7cfa45…
10-09 22:20:19	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x1263a8…
10-09 20:24:14	Will Phil Owen win the next Brighton mayoral election?	No	SELL	60	95¢	$58	0x294552…
10-09 19:41:11	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Yes	SELL	18	46¢	$8	0x4ad7dc…
10-09 15:11:22	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Yes	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0x117df9…
10-09 13:59:37	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x24c2fc…
10-09 13:48:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xf36ecd…
10-09 13:27:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xd34302…
10-09 00:22:30	Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xd90b9d…
10-08 23:58:06	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	55¢	$16	0x697df1…
10-08 23:55:32	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	52¢	$15	0x385221…
10-08 19:36:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x638d47…
10-08 14:12:56	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?	Yes	BUY	18	36¢	$6	0x712e7b…
10-08 07:04:10	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	BUY	38	59¢	$23	0xd3e620…
10-07 15:29:49	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	34	87¢	$30	0x512d14…
10-07 15:29:13	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	18	87¢	$16	0xead666…
10-07 14:59:05	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x0e6862…
10-07 14:33:14	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	55	87¢	$48	0x32cd8a…
10-07 14:32:41	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x954608…
10-07 12:02:25	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	54¢	$21	0x47dafb…
10-07 12:01:13	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x4d70a1…
10-07 11:51:14	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	83¢	$45	0x0f764d…
10-07 02:25:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xee6143…
10-07 02:25:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x0be1ef…
10-06 18:20:29	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x7a6f33…
10-06 00:48:56	Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xa43b3f…
10-06 00:48:25	Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xf38e35…
10-06 00:47:47	Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Yes	SELL	34	71¢	$24	0x4c19a9…
10-06 00:47:22	Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x678ee4…
10-05 21:17:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	61	84¢	$51	0xed013f…
10-05 13:17:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0xa5c9a9…