Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

Trades

189

lifetime

Volume

$214

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-10-03

last 10-29 09:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

72% 67% +$11

Politics

22% 40% $0

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+3	$2	78¢	$2	+$0	10-26 13:21
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+5	$1	31¢	$1	+$0	10-03 18:36
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	30¢	$1	+$0	10-26 13:20
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	86¢	$1	$0	10-26 11:55
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	70¢	$1	$0	10-26 11:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	3	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	10-24 21:44
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?	2	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	10-17 16:40
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 36%+?	3	$4	5	0	+5	No	+$1	10-09 15:07
Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	10-28 15:45
Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	2	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	10-27 05:41
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	10-07 04:44
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	1	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	10-12 10:48
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	10-06 16:04
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	10-25 09:10
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	10-15 18:08
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 170T tokens the week of September 28?	2	$2	5	2	+3	Yes	+$3	10-04 18:06
Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 5?	3	$2	8	4	+3	No	-$2	10-09 16:31
Will Vance peak at Category 2?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	10-25 09:16
Will OpenRouter process 185T or more tokens the week of October 5?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	10-08 19:28
Will OpenRouter process less than 575T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	10-15 12:16
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	10-11 04:56
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	10-07 04:46
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	2	$2	19	0	+19	No	-$2	10-20 16:19
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Mounjaro sales be above $13B?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	10-16 06:02
Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28?	2	$2	5	0	+5	No	-$2	10-04 07:11
Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-22 05:42
will citigroup c q3 provision for credit losses be above 3pt0b	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	10-09 15:48
will the 2026 league of legends world championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6 5 million	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-27 04:53
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	10-26 13:21
Will PP win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	10-27 12:03
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	10-22 12:11
Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	10-23 04:42
will intel intc q3 foundry revenue be above 20261008120109000 7pt5b	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	10-16 06:51
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	2	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	10-11 04:47
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	10-06 11:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:43:01	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xfac8ac…
10-28 15:45:22	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0x729193…
10-28 13:21:16	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x5160cd…
10-28 13:20:56	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x26a023…
10-28 05:05:07	will medline mdln be added to the sp 500 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa54758…
10-28 05:04:26	will strategy microstrategy mstr be added to the sp 500 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x4b1a20…
10-28 04:54:44	will linda romero win the next quito mayoral elections	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xa17e11…
10-27 18:11:50	Will PJT Partners (PJT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x680091…
10-27 12:03:27	Will PSOE win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1d1aec…
10-27 12:03:23	Will PP win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x017123…
10-27 11:49:27	Will PSOE win the most seats in Tarragona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xdbd84c…
10-27 11:45:06	Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$2	0x19206f…
10-27 11:30:47	Will the 2026 League of Legends World Championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6.25 million?	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x64be70…
10-27 05:41:02	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x8d054e…
10-27 05:40:42	Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x8b704d…
10-27 05:40:39	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x08f852…
10-27 05:32:44	Will "Wicker" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x11d0b4…
10-27 05:06:21	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x78a606…
10-27 05:05:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x36725c…
10-27 05:05:00	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x4c1d88…
10-27 04:53:09	will the 2026 league of legends world championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6 25 million	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa93d27…
10-27 04:53:05	will the 2026 league of legends world championship peak concurrent viewers be at least 6 5 million	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xa88efc…
10-26 13:21:15	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x7c429c…
10-26 13:20:59	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xfb1090…
10-26 11:55:35	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x009a7a…
10-26 11:55:05	Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7025fc…
10-25 16:18:18	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xf43409…
10-25 09:16:56	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xfe44f9…
10-25 09:10:42	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xe7e7b1…
10-24 21:44:47	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x1f4a4e…
10-24 20:53:08	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xde36cc…
10-24 16:20:09	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x6f26eb…
10-24 16:20:06	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0x2a49a1…
10-24 15:14:18	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7182e6…
10-24 12:51:14	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x43a597…
10-24 04:47:29	will kimi k3pt1 pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0907e3…
10-24 04:46:59	will kimi k3pt1 pro debut in the top 5 of the text arena leaderboard by june 30 2027	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0ce4df…
10-24 04:35:21	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x02292a…
10-24 04:35:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x3c516b…
10-24 04:26:14	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xbb99e0…
10-24 04:21:45	Will Vance peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x55ba2f…
10-23 18:39:26	Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8ea4a2…
10-23 18:34:50	Will Bonnie Crombie win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x16cf5d…
10-23 18:34:42	Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8a7bdd…
10-23 12:18:30	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x86ef55…
10-23 05:36:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $100B?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x266ae8…
10-23 05:31:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xdfa6f7…
10-23 05:21:42	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be less than $0.55 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa467d6…
10-23 05:20:38	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x237c45…
10-23 04:53:57	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x24aefa…
10-23 04:53:38	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xef9905…
10-23 04:42:53	Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x6f6ae0…
10-23 04:42:30	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x6279fe…
10-22 20:16:26	Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd2608c…
10-22 19:41:48	Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x0bfae2…
10-22 19:30:23	Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc9d0ab…
10-22 17:09:35	Will Vance peak at Category 1 or weaker?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0xaca464…
10-22 16:38:51	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0x6d4b5d…
10-22 16:29:18	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x804de4…
10-22 16:28:59	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x442318…
10-22 15:32:51	Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x98fd1a…
10-22 12:11:32	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xabbdcb…
10-22 12:11:26	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xcac60a…
10-22 12:01:23	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9c34ca…
10-22 12:01:15	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf2638a…
10-22 10:53:38	Will PP win the most seats in Palencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe889e9…
10-22 10:41:42	Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xe95ac4…
10-22 10:28:27	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb3df37…
10-22 07:08:35	Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Seville in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1f19f7…
10-22 07:02:20	Will PP win the Melilla seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x01d841…
10-22 06:57:30	Will PP win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x963624…
10-22 06:32:06	Will BNG win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x7c0783…
10-22 06:09:02	Will PSOE receive less than 24% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3cd365…
10-22 05:51:37	Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf2c466…
10-22 05:42:52	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x64f9cb…
10-22 05:42:49	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x215958…
10-22 05:26:35	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x0b2c2c…
10-21 17:28:24	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x5ca834…
10-21 17:27:15	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9ab6b7…
10-21 17:22:17	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb2fc00…
10-21 16:09:03	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x68484b…
10-21 04:16:51	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe5d1e5…
10-21 04:13:35	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x6f411c…
10-21 03:47:42	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x1dab42…
10-21 03:44:38	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xc97cb4…
10-20 17:41:36	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe689ae…
10-20 17:31:36	Will Democrats win fewer than 7 of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3b7b66…
10-20 16:19:00	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5bd410…
10-20 15:50:30	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x7cec87…
10-20 15:33:14	Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0f975d…
10-20 15:25:32	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x543d7f…
10-20 13:47:18	Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd0fb6d…
10-19 06:54:38	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa65133…
10-19 05:08:11	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x5d3db8…
10-19 05:08:08	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x84ad9c…
10-18 16:21:17	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x029aa9…
10-18 16:09:59	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb12a8c…
10-18 11:16:36	Will Teeny Brumby win the next Burnie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x38efa2…
10-17 16:40:36	Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 8m?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x6dbc55…
10-17 15:14:27	will the republicans win leavenworth county in the kansas senate race in 2026	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x7b1128…