Pricey-Weasel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

48.8%

Resolved

118

Trades

321

lifetime

Volume

$450

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-29 11:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

46% 47% +$1

Other

20% 31% -$24

Sports

19% 23% +$15

Crypto

13% 37% -$10

Tech

1% 33% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes		+21	$1	6¢	$1	+$0	10-26 14:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	8	$115	106	105	+1	Yes	+$0	02-28 03:35
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	23	$30	38	38	+0	No	$0	05-14 07:39
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	02-28 03:30
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	16	$17	3,237	1,237	+2,000	No	-$7	03-13 13:34
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$11	53	18	+34	Yes	+$29	07-11 07:01
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?	9	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	03-04 07:22
will abdul carter be the 2025 2026 nfl defensive rookie of the year	4	$9	1,942	1,942	+0	No	+$3	02-05 00:03
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$7	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	10-26 01:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$6	4	4	+0	Yes	+$0	10-15 11:16
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	6	$6	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	03-13 02:03
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	10-12 06:47
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$6	3	3	+0	No	$0	10-10 10:49
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	6	$6	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	10-29 07:02
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	5	$5	73	73	+0	No	-$1	03-04 07:25
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$5	8	4	+3	No	-$1	10-26 14:07
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	5	$5	3	2	+1	Yes	+$0	10-26 14:03
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 3 9	5	$5	4	4	+0	Yes	-$1	03-03 07:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	05-12 02:27
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$4	3,000	0	+3,000	No	-$4	07-29 09:16
Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)	2	$4	22	0	+22	Seahawks	-$4	10-26 01:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 09:45 UTC	2	$4	15	0	+15	Up	-$1	02-05 09:51
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	4	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$1	02-28 03:36
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	3	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	03-13 03:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	3	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	10-10 10:46
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	3	$4	5	5	+0	Leeds United FC	$0	10-10 10:49
will iran strike israel on march 10	3	$3	3	1	+1	Yes	-$1	03-12 09:51
will trump deport less than 250000	3	$3	63	0	+63	No	-$3	02-04 08:02
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$3	3	3	+0	No	+$1	03-09 11:26
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	3	$2	3	3	+0	FUT Esports	-$2	10-26 13:11
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	03-13 03:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 11:11:14	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	297	0¢	$1	0x63be26…
10-29 11:10:50	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	297	0¢	$1	0xcdce6a…
10-29 08:13:50	ZEC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-30 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x28733d…
10-29 07:03:19	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x84de2a…
10-29 07:02:49	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x0186da…
10-29 07:00:32	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xfa9630…
10-26 14:10:18	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x89e44c…
10-26 14:08:05	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7ec95d…
10-26 14:07:30	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4f3d5c…
10-26 14:04:24	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xe9b61f…
10-26 14:03:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x9f7cd7…
10-26 13:58:23	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0xcdc737…
10-26 13:57:56	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x5253b4…
10-26 13:57:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x567290…
10-26 13:11:26	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xcb92f1…
10-26 13:11:05	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9a573e…
10-26 12:43:29	Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	9z	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb98e2a…
10-26 12:42:21	Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	9z	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xafb7ab…
10-26 12:39:09	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x1b193e…
10-26 12:39:00	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xe1eb4d…
10-26 12:38:15	Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$1	0x1d8e5a…
10-26 01:54:48	Pistons vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xef9bf0…
10-26 01:43:33	Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)	Seahawks	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x2f649a…
10-26 01:42:00	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Raptors	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbc113a…
10-26 01:36:53	Chiefs vs. Seahawks	Chiefs	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x68acfb…
10-26 01:25:02	Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xecfe24…
10-26 01:24:18	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Raptors	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfce37a…
10-26 01:24:09	Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)	Chiefs	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc915a6…
10-26 01:21:39	Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)	Chiefs	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x9ab844…
10-26 01:21:32	Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)	Chiefs	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xfba106…
10-26 01:01:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xbf51b8…
10-19 11:05:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x0aacd1…
10-19 11:05:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x366e17…
10-19 10:40:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x17f5e7…
10-19 09:34:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf24061…
10-16 02:35:25	Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?	Over	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x014577…
10-16 02:02:06	LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner	FURIA Esports	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc22d7c…
10-16 00:46:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 16?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xad99f9…
10-16 00:46:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x05b10c…
10-15 12:09:16	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xeba7ca…
10-15 12:08:07	Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xd7f546…
10-15 11:16:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x33d62d…
10-15 11:16:28	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xa3bd99…
10-15 11:16:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x437ef5…
10-15 11:15:54	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xae0a4c…
10-15 10:50:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x60b221…
10-14 07:49:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x34745a…
10-13 07:40:22	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner	Team WE	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x4bc5ad…
10-13 07:39:43	LoL: Team WE vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner	Team WE	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5785a6…
10-13 07:13:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xfe715c…
10-13 07:12:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd7aa33…
10-12 06:47:20	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x5a253e…
10-12 06:47:07	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb0846b…
10-12 06:28:57	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner	KT Rolster	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0x8b7f8c…
10-12 06:28:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x72cc88…
10-12 06:28:47	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xaf2184…
10-12 06:28:39	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4dc0f4…
10-12 06:28:27	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x0f8f37…
10-12 06:20:09	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner	KT Rolster	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x559356…
10-12 06:20:00	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xccb5d8…
10-12 05:22:54	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xcd3073…
10-12 05:21:41	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x3512b4…
10-12 05:21:24	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8d31f5…
10-12 04:44:41	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x921146…
10-12 04:02:29	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x8d34cd…
10-12 04:02:11	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x258f91…
10-10 10:53:30	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x5bd16d…
10-10 10:52:49	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3668d6…
10-10 10:51:39	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xa19f57…
10-10 10:50:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xd81995…
10-10 10:49:42	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xa876f5…
10-10 10:49:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0x2b5d08…
10-10 10:49:10	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x931c16…
10-10 10:48:12	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xcd075d…
10-10 10:47:37	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcd0f28…
10-10 10:47:19	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xbda640…
10-10 10:46:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xbf88be…
10-10 10:46:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x442255…
10-10 10:46:03	Valorant: NRG vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner	NRG	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x168a4a…
10-10 10:45:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5aee67…
10-10 10:44:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xe9e3c9…
10-10 10:44:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xff8237…
10-10 10:10:03	Valorant: NRG vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner	NRG	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xcddaed…
10-10 10:06:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe4a908…
10-10 10:00:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xa66dc9…
10-10 09:59:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd5af0d…
10-10 09:59:34	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x4b03b2…
10-10 09:59:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x074952…
10-10 09:58:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x59ca52…
10-09 06:44:34	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xc4e3f4…
10-08 06:43:33	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xbede68…
09-30 08:17:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x9d8345…
07-29 09:16:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa2ac11…
07-29 08:26:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc4b31d…
07-28 10:58:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe00f92…
07-28 08:29:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xca50ab…
07-22 03:20:19	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8861af…
07-22 03:20:04	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x59ef1a…
07-11 07:04:50	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$0	0x3b0f21…
07-11 07:04:28	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8fc482…