Favorable-Quadrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$87

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$84

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-26 10:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 67% -$50

Other

37% 36% -$13

Politics

10% 20% -$3

Sports

7% 100% +$153

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	No		+84	$84	100¢	$84	+$0	10-26 10:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	3	$404	272	136	+136	No	+$1	06-15 11:45
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	5	$395	200	200	+0	Yes	$0	01-28 07:26
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$272	142	142	+0	open	—	05-27 06:08
will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	2	$272	137	137	+0	No	+$1	07-17 12:29
will bitcoin reach 78k august 17 23 2026	2	$223	138	138	+0	Yes	-$53	08-21 06:09
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$201	300	300	+0	No	+$0	01-27 04:54
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$1	02-01 02:23
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	+$0	02-06 12:14
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$0	02-02 07:00
will the government shutdown last 60 days or more 286 461 927 735 666	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	01-29 01:09
will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	2	$193	100	100	+0	No	-$4	01-23 02:24
will paramount be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30 391	2	$192	100	100	+0	No	-$8	01-30 02:52
will bitcoin reach 76k august 3 9 2026	1	$138	138	0	+138	No	+$0	08-03 06:53
will bitcoin reach 76k august 10 16 2026	1	$138	138	0	+138	No	+$0	08-11 10:48
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?	1	$136	136	0	+136	No	+$0	06-02 12:20
nba den phx 2026 03 24 spread away 5pt5	1	$132	275	0	+275	Suns	+$143	03-25 00:48
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	3	$131	141	0	+141	Seahawks	+$10	02-09 02:23
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	1	$84	84	0	+84	open	—	10-26 10:23
will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	1	$82	83	0	+83	No	+$1	08-21 06:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$29	100	100	+0	No	-$4	02-01 08:52
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$14	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-30 09:07
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	2	$4	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-22 01:58
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	2	$4	100	100	+0	No	-$1	01-24 07:47
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	2	$3	100	100	+0	No	-$1	01-26 09:19
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	2	$3	200	200	+0	No	-$1	01-20 05:02
will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	2	$2	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-25 14:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$2	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-02 13:42
will gta 6 cost 100	2	$2	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-31 09:58
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	2	$2	90	90	+0	No	$0	01-29 09:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 10:23:35	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xfc65a8…
08-21 06:46:33	will bitcoin reach 100k in august 2026	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x101f92…
08-21 06:09:24	will bitcoin reach 78k august 17 23 2026	No	SELL	138	62¢	$85	0xc7de41…
08-18 13:51:01	will bitcoin reach 78k august 17 23 2026	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x25bdaa…
08-11 10:48:25	will bitcoin reach 76k august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x3b6abc…
08-03 06:53:09	will bitcoin reach 76k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0xab865e…
07-17 12:29:04	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	SELL	137	100¢	$136	0x6cccaa…
07-02 10:40:25	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	137	99¢	$136	0x358948…
06-15 11:45:45	will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	136	99¢	$135	0x98986b…
06-11 12:44:19	will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	136	99¢	$135	0x672209…
06-08 10:33:49	will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0x0f51ea…
06-02 12:20:41	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$136	0xda6701…
05-27 06:08:46	Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	142	96¢	$136	0x9b9f7a…
05-04 02:04:48	Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	96¢	$136	0xabde2f…
03-25 00:48:59	nba den phx 2026 03 24 spread away 5pt5	Suns	BUY	275	48¢	$132	0x567a01…
02-09 02:23:55	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Seahawks	BUY	102	96¢	$98	0x30e9f2…
02-09 01:50:43	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Seahawks	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0xdd18be…
02-09 00:36:25	nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	Seahawks	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x58ef8d…
02-06 12:14:15	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x53a4db…
02-06 03:33:57	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf7adaa…
02-02 13:42:58	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x1d871b…
02-02 07:07:42	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xaa4d70…
02-02 07:00:32	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x07c2ff…
02-01 08:58:04	will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x6299d1…
02-01 08:52:02	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xffb67a…
02-01 02:32:04	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x231f32…
02-01 02:23:32	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xbbc732…
01-31 10:04:40	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xed21ab…
01-31 09:58:26	will gta 6 cost 100	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x57c716…
01-31 01:31:38	will gta 6 cost 100	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x19c647…
01-30 09:07:54	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0xceef8e…
01-30 02:56:50	will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x80e6d3…
01-30 02:52:00	will paramount be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30 391	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x60f8f0…
01-29 09:26:18	will paramount be 2 free app in the us apple app store on january 30 391	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x508678…
01-29 09:17:04	Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0xdff630…
01-29 01:13:26	Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x080495…
01-29 01:09:40	will the government shutdown last 60 days or more 286 461 927 735 666	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xda9a13…
01-28 07:31:07	will the government shutdown last 60 days or more 286 461 927 735 666	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x16fd71…
01-28 07:26:41	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0xc73a6b…
01-28 01:02:43	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$49	0xeb8f17…
01-27 04:55:57	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x18a0ad…
01-27 04:54:21	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0x41aad0…
01-27 01:38:41	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xb89236…
01-26 09:19:49	elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x48a04e…
01-26 03:36:30	elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xad68b2…
01-26 00:56:42	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x8ab7be…
01-25 14:40:28	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3989ce…
01-25 14:26:26	will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x105d9d…
01-25 08:37:16	will bitcoin reach 110k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x155203…
01-25 08:32:16	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x30a7ee…
01-24 07:57:04	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5f884a…
01-24 07:47:58	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x361ddf…
01-23 02:43:30	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x9bd79c…
01-23 02:24:52	will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xea8e53…
01-22 02:13:50	will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xdcad66…
01-22 01:58:34	will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x86c679…
01-21 01:38:26	will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1ceb92…
01-20 05:02:26	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x1dcfe2…
01-19 04:21:38	Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x1d901a…