Recent-Carol — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.45K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

421

Trades

6,201

lifetime

Volume

$31.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-26 01:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Other

86% 35% +$4,989

Politics

11% 78% +$290

Crypto

1% 62% +$67

Sports

1% 100% +$101

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes		+1,723	$3	0¢	$3	-$1	08-14 23:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	11	$2.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$2,773	02-10 13:55
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 115 139	59	$1.3K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$1,270	02-09 12:34
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 500 519	36	$1.1K	13,635	13,635	+0	Yes	+$864	01-02 16:45
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	9	$744	900	900	+0	No	+$64	05-16 23:15
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	146	$630	6,000	4,462	+1,538	No	-$55	05-16 23:01
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	17	$613	1,124	1,124	+0	Yes	+$405	01-16 14:55
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 140 164	36	$606	2,321	2,321	+0	No	+$504	01-14 16:44
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 90 114	19	$529	828	828	+0	No	+$94	01-26 15:44
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	36	$499	800	300	+500	Yes	-$94	05-19 11:59
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	26	$461	4,100	4,100	+0	No	+$127	01-09 16:56
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 340 359	10	$424	840	840	+0	No	+$410	02-10 13:20
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 520 539	178	$406	51,945	44,074	+7,871	No	+$29	01-02 16:28
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	255	$390	13,000	13,000	+0	Yes	+$30	05-11 18:47
will donald trump say china during his mar a lago press conference on venezuela on saturday	18	$322	426	426	+0	Yes	+$19	01-03 17:16
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 260 279	2	$320	400	400	+0	No	+$200	02-17 14:16
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 420 439	17	$312	4,500	1,184	+3,316	No	-$18	01-27 15:44
will the strangers chapter 3 score at least 55 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	3	$310	342	0	+342	No	+$32	02-05 21:16
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	80	$282	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$18	03-22 21:40
will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the united states in january 2026	5	$272	190	190	+0	Yes	+$102	02-06 21:18
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	26	$272	2,300	1,000	+1,300	No	-$25	01-13 15:07
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 115 139	41	$270	3,500	1,620	+1,880	No	-$10	01-21 11:39
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 540 559	8	$268	400	400	+0	No	+$80	01-20 16:27
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 560 579	23	$268	2,957	1,957	+1,000	No	+$5	01-16 15:42
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	4	$252	526	326	+200	Yes	-$53	02-03 12:29
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	4	$248	200	200	+0	No	+$92	05-12 07:53
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	4	$248	200	200	+0	No	+$92	05-11 06:27
will trump say iran during ncaa national champions remarks on april 21	3	$239	309	306	+3	No	+$101	04-21 21:09
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	3	$231	200	200	+0	No	+$88	02-10 12:45
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 140 164	145	$227	34,623	17,019	+17,603	No	+$100	01-26 16:39
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 380 399	2	$210	200	200	+0	Yes	+$68	01-27 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-26 01:05:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x34215a…
09-26 00:52:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-26 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x42db79…
08-14 23:15:03	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	374	0¢	$1	0x12ce0d…
08-14 23:11:21	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	598	0¢	$1	0x30cf5f…
08-14 23:07:34	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	749	0¢	$1	0x6fddde…
08-14 14:05:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,999	0¢	$6	0x0baba4…
08-14 14:04:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,001	0¢	$4	0x1f6471…
08-14 04:14:54	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	61	31¢	$19	0x34c82f…
08-14 03:00:45	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xffb33a…
08-13 23:25:12	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x4ab8c5…
08-13 23:03:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x65508d…
08-13 22:45:13	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x963df7…
08-13 19:27:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,053	0¢	$1	0x2967e7…
08-13 19:27:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	573	0¢	$2	0xbb24ff…
08-13 18:50:39	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	32	31¢	$10	0x0bfb4e…
08-13 18:42:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xf7aff4…
08-13 18:38:27	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	28	31¢	$9	0xc7cf0b…
08-13 18:38:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	54	31¢	$17	0x80556a…
08-13 18:38:16	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	18	31¢	$6	0xb174e3…
08-12 05:34:24	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	33	29¢	$10	0x146002…
08-12 05:34:22	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x1d3455…
08-12 05:19:24	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x495014…
08-12 05:15:27	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x2932e7…
07-24 14:07:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	0¢	$0	0x23801e…
07-24 14:07:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x691bbf…
07-24 14:05:22	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x3fb165…
07-24 14:03:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5149f8…
07-24 14:02:39	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x4884a1…
07-24 14:02:27	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,111	0¢	$1	0x530951…
07-24 14:02:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$2	0xb55fc7…
07-24 12:13:46	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0x36bf68…
07-24 12:05:25	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x000bb4…
07-24 12:04:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	400	5¢	$19	0x02fe1a…
07-24 11:50:03	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xb26f90…
07-15 13:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	0¢	$0	0x21b293…
07-15 13:45:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfb475f…
07-15 13:44:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	0¢	$0	0x50adc9…
07-15 13:43:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$0	0x9ab246…
07-15 13:42:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	0¢	$0	0x6d387e…
07-15 13:42:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	942	0¢	$1	0x928a68…
07-15 13:41:44	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	0¢	$0	0xbe9f0f…
07-15 13:41:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x6b5048…
07-15 13:40:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2bee41…
07-15 13:40:41	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	0¢	$0	0x48c8c5…
07-15 13:39:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$0	0x8c8a56…
07-15 13:38:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0xee14a0…
07-15 13:37:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	0¢	$0	0x961324…
07-15 13:37:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x097bb3…
07-15 13:37:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xf11462…
07-15 13:37:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xd763b3…
07-15 13:37:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0xcb78ab…
07-15 13:37:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x408d8d…
07-15 13:36:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5c7fbd…
07-15 13:36:58	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xced96e…
07-15 13:36:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	727	0¢	$4	0x5eb958…
07-15 13:36:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0x9b12fc…
07-15 13:35:47	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x245805…
07-15 13:35:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x3bf5b7…
07-15 13:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf3baa5…
07-15 13:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc5a210…
07-15 13:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x35f326…
07-15 13:35:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x25f1e3…
07-15 13:34:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	0¢	$0	0xaae0b6…
07-15 13:34:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xcad07d…
07-15 13:34:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xadc540…
07-15 13:34:52	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x690dd4…
07-15 13:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe06d49…
07-15 13:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xd90c59…
07-15 13:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xab819a…
07-15 13:34:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf7151f…
07-15 13:34:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xd26b1f…
07-15 13:34:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc0e318…
07-15 13:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x391912…
07-15 13:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x14f5c3…
07-15 13:33:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0x45ef2a…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf5ea09…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x95da88…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x6bccd4…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x571c6a…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x3c1ad8…
07-15 13:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x10e1b2…
07-15 13:29:44	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xf5bd68…
07-15 13:29:04	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xf2f663…
07-15 13:29:04	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x8780af…
07-15 13:26:20	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xddc8e3…
07-15 13:25:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd0f1d2…
07-15 13:25:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x9267d9…
07-15 13:25:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x769f5f…
07-15 13:25:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x058205…
07-15 13:22:01	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x8e423e…
07-15 13:21:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x260ed2…
07-15 13:20:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7cc9af…
07-15 13:19:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xa49e7b…
07-15 13:19:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xa7e4fa…
07-15 13:18:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x25ded2…
07-15 13:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xe7b75c…
07-15 13:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x37ec1b…
07-15 13:17:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	0¢	$0	0x371d55…
07-15 13:17:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x79ff5a…
07-15 13:16:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x3c8cc2…