Imperturbable-Industrialization-Testimony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

81.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$326

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-08

last 06-26 15:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 78% $-21

Other

15% — —

Tech

9% — —

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No		-10	$-9	0¢	$-0	+$9	06-05 07:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 09:56
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$20	27	0	+27	open	—	04-08 07:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-15 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5PM ET	1	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	05-03 21:27
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	05-03 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	Up	$-10	05-05 10:03
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	1	$9	0	10	-10	open	—	06-05 07:46
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	06-26 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	3	$8	8	2	+6	Up	$-4	05-05 11:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$7	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	3	$7	5	3	+2	Up	$-1	05-08 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 12:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 19:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 19:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 12:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 12:05
adbe quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 11 2026 5pt83	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	06-09 21:01
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-29 17:16
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-24 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-02 11:28
orcl quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 10 2026 1pt96	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-06 09:11
Will GitLab (GTLB) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-28 16:49
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-03 13:39
Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-24 21:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-08 16:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 15:21:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xbaa0dc…
06-09 21:01:48	adbe quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 11 2026 5pt83	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xe0e239…
06-09 12:59:24	btc updown 5m 1781009700	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xee89c5…
06-06 09:11:06	orcl quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 10 2026 1pt96	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x8f68d2…
06-05 07:46:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x3c535a…
06-03 13:39:53	Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1771b7…
06-02 11:28:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa0b57d…
05-29 17:16:08	Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1763e1…
05-28 16:49:07	Will GitLab (GTLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7f0cff…
05-24 21:34:55	Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xdad1ec…
05-24 21:33:51	Will Okta (OKTA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0442f0…
05-24 21:33:21	Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x1053f2…
05-08 20:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x649f27…
05-08 20:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xda10e7…
05-08 20:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xccba84…
05-08 19:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x688bb2…
05-08 19:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xa32b38…
05-08 19:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x2d55be…
05-08 19:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe3d0eb…
05-08 19:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xd288a9…
05-08 19:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6a75e8…
05-08 19:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x259a0e…
05-08 18:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1e6fb5…
05-08 18:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0ee338…
05-08 17:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x88ea94…
05-08 17:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x79c3ae…
05-08 16:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x04a91e…
05-08 16:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4dcc2b…
05-08 16:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x2e126e…
05-08 15:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x147624…
05-08 15:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xec7d94…
05-08 14:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc68385…
05-08 14:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x2a0fba…
05-08 14:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x74165d…
05-08 14:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x6b3bda…
05-08 14:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf88f2b…
05-08 14:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x81f3a3…
05-08 14:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x40cb03…
05-08 13:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x2e93e1…
05-08 13:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x18a521…
05-05 13:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x598c60…
05-05 13:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7166bf…
05-05 12:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe710fd…
05-05 12:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x20a6a5…
05-05 12:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xbf2f81…
05-05 12:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x569633…
05-05 12:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xf1f683…
05-05 12:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x34a98a…
05-05 12:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xcbe2ba…
05-05 12:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x44d173…
05-05 12:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xd8efb1…
05-05 11:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x34fc25…
05-05 11:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x68256f…
05-05 11:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x0f50ff…
05-05 11:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xfe2276…
05-05 11:25:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x87c2db…
05-05 11:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x2a3531…
05-05 11:10:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc95a80…
05-05 11:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa9f20e…
05-05 11:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3271b0…
05-05 11:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x9731dd…
05-05 11:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb7d5c8…
05-05 10:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3b8d49…
05-05 10:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xce1440…
05-05 10:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xac843d…
05-05 10:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x403697…
05-05 10:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x2c0300…
05-05 10:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xbf5755…
05-05 09:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x9ba36f…
05-05 09:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7d016d…
05-05 09:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x58efe9…
05-03 22:17:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa77089…
05-03 21:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x707061…
05-03 20:58:10	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xbbc98f…
04-15 09:13:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x3cd58a…
04-11 05:44:19	Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x15b4d9…
04-10 16:45:51	Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x74ad53…
04-08 07:22:43	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x99610f…