Imperturbable-Industrialization-Testimony — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$17

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

197 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$396

$906 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 10-30 14:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

38% 36% +$10

Politics

25% 67% +$19

Crypto

25% 76% -$25

Tech

12% 79% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000?	Yes		+21	$8	98¢	$21	+$12	10-29 05:24
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000?	Yes		+21	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	10-29 05:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$44	91	91	+0	No	-$16	10-25 12:15
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	1	$44	83	0	+83	Yes	+$39	10-25 12:45
Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$38	105	105	+0	Yes	+$5	10-25 12:17
Will the Student List win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$33	114	114	+0	No	-$17	10-25 12:17
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?	3	$25	18	9	+8	Yes	+$1	07-02 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 09:56
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$20	27	0	+27	Yes	+$7	04-08 07:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	Yes	+$2	04-15 09:13
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-08-22?	1	$14	20	0	+20	Yes	+$6	08-16 20:51
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	1	$14	25	0	+25	No	-$14	07-16 09:53
Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?	1	$12	25	0	+25	Yes	+$12	09-18 05:29
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-07-16?	2	$11	16	0	+16	Yes	+$5	07-13 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 10:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 10:50
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$10	15	0	+15	Down	+$5	05-03 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5PM ET	1	$10	26	0	+26	Down	-$10	05-03 21:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	Up	-$10	05-05 10:03
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	07-15 10:12
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	1	$9	0	10	-10	Yes	+$9	06-05 07:46
Will the Kansas Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	1	$9	25	0	+25	open	—	10-26 20:08
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	1	$9	20	0	+20	Yes	+$11	09-24 13:10
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?	1	$8	25	0	+25	No	-$8	07-16 09:53
Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	1	$8	25	0	+25	No	-$8	08-16 20:27
Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	1	$8	9	0	+9	Yes	+$1	08-26 10:02
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000?	1	$8	21	0	+21	open	—	10-29 05:24
Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	1	$8	25	0	+25	open	—	10-26 20:08
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	1	$8	9	0	+9	Yes	+$1	07-03 14:02
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-26 15:21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	1	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	07-06 15:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 14:39:45	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x312e17…
10-30 14:39:00	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x17cb9d…
10-30 07:51:10	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x18eeae…
10-30 06:44:43	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x85c1e4…
10-30 06:44:40	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xa61504…
10-30 06:44:39	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0xb962fe…
10-30 06:44:39	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 51.0 in October?	Yes	BUY	189	0¢	$0	0x4f5902…
10-30 06:44:37	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 59.0 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xc0eefd…
10-30 06:44:37	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x864b73…
10-30 06:44:36	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	131	0¢	$0	0xa31893…
10-30 06:44:34	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x8678a7…
10-30 06:44:34	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0x1f831c…
10-29 05:24:41	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 250,000 and 300,000?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x618ff5…
10-29 05:24:40	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0xebd673…
10-29 05:24:40	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000?	Yes	BUY	21	20¢	$4	0xab51bb…
10-29 05:24:38	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be less than 250,000?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x8d04a4…
10-29 05:24:38	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 300,000 and 350,000?	Yes	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0x878277…
10-29 05:24:37	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be 450,000 or more?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x8422b2…
10-26 20:09:00	Will the Nebraska Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	25	31¢	$8	0x085da1…
10-26 20:08:59	Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x788fd9…
10-26 20:08:56	Will the Kansas Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x6c742d…
10-25 12:45:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	83	53¢	$44	0xfd3559…
10-25 12:17:11	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	105	21¢	$22	0x56b5ff…
10-25 12:17:03	Will the Student List win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	114	7¢	$8	0x1d2bd3…
10-25 12:15:41	Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	91	16¢	$14	0x3e12dc…
10-20 11:33:54	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	105	16¢	$16	0x59cb4e…
10-12 21:36:57	Will the Student List win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xbb2319…
10-12 21:36:38	Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	91	33¢	$30	0x765126…
09-24 14:13:13	Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4bd6a4…
09-24 14:13:10	Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x404ec1…
09-24 14:13:08	Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x20f5b9…
09-24 14:13:08	Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x08c248…
09-24 14:13:07	Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x5a4804…
09-24 13:10:18	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xeef28e…
09-24 13:10:15	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x80b50d…
09-24 13:10:14	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x9c7650…
09-18 05:29:18	Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x430e36…
09-18 05:29:16	Will SPD win between 13% and 16% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x4c0408…
09-18 05:29:16	Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x277367…
09-18 05:29:15	Will SPD win at least 16% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x81fda5…
09-07 00:40:09	Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0xca3417…
09-04 11:09:30	IK Start to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf4536a…
09-04 11:09:28	Aalesunds FK vs. IK Start: Second half draw?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb00747…
09-04 11:09:27	Aalesunds FK to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xccb4e0…
09-02 14:42:43	Burnley FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Second half draw?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x94b4bf…
09-02 14:42:42	Middlesbrough FC to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7d144f…
09-02 14:42:40	Burnley FC to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x91b274…
09-01 20:17:39	Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xc7bd7c…
08-27 05:29:33	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x604670…
08-27 05:29:31	Will the US add at least 150k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x944018…
08-27 05:29:31	Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x41b4ca…
08-27 05:29:30	Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xf869fd…
08-27 05:29:28	Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0xaa6fc2…
08-27 05:29:28	Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in August?	Yes	BUY	19	17¢	$3	0x949579…
08-26 10:02:58	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 22 and August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x51e211…
08-26 10:02:58	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x1f4354…
08-26 10:02:57	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x7902b1…
08-23 19:51:45	Southampton FC vs. West Ham United FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xde1198…
08-23 19:51:45	Southampton FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x9bfbdc…
08-23 19:51:43	West Ham United FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xb4b8e4…
08-21 21:51:19	GNK Dinamo Zagreb leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xdab810…
08-21 21:51:19	GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NK Varaždin: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x700511…
08-21 21:51:18	NK Varaždin leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xe9b533…
08-18 21:43:25	São Paulo FC to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x472b89…
08-18 21:43:24	São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Second half draw?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xe0e22a…
08-18 21:43:22	Club Bolívar to win the second half?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xff1253…
08-16 20:51:45	Will Rangers FC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x76c20c…
08-16 20:51:43	Will St Mirren FC win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xbef4b4…
08-16 20:51:42	Will Rangers FC vs. St Mirren FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa7378e…
08-16 20:28:00	Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	25	30¢	$8	0x309279…
08-16 20:28:00	Will 200 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x11dce7…
08-16 20:27:58	Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x0627df…
08-16 20:27:57	Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x2bc7d9…
07-16 09:59:13	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x56afe9…
07-16 09:53:34	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x0e758b…
07-16 09:53:32	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x97c282…
07-16 09:53:32	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x1b6cfc…
07-15 10:12:52	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2fd92f…
07-13 18:19:44	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x7476ef…
07-13 18:09:13	Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0xe1385f…
07-13 17:56:04	Will Ferencvárosi TC vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0xd16a88…
07-13 17:56:02	Will FK Vojvodina Novi Sad win on 2026-07-16?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0xfe53ed…
07-12 12:38:07	England vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb764dc…
07-12 12:38:07	England to score first vs. Argentina?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xa6189c…
07-12 12:38:05	Argentina to score first vs. England?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x6d51cc…
07-12 06:57:14	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$0	0x32e7e8…
07-12 06:57:13	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	98	0¢	$0	0xdf8b93…
07-12 06:57:13	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	84	1¢	$1	0x33bdd5…
07-12 06:57:11	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on July 13?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0xbe5fb9…
07-12 06:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xdc92bc…
07-12 06:57:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x8eda6d…
07-12 06:57:08	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x5f3e10…
07-12 06:57:08	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x272bf7…
07-12 06:57:05	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x75a111…
07-12 06:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 13?	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x993c64…
07-12 06:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on July 13?	Yes	BUY	8	5¢	$0	0xc9b67a…
07-11 22:45:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x5b15e7…
07-11 22:29:25	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xc5b21f…
07-10 12:51:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x07274d…
07-10 12:42:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x8248dc…