Worst-Festival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$405

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.7%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$5.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 06-15 00:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Sports

50% 82% +$156

Other

41% 100% +$249

Politics

7% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	4	$325	400	552	-152	open	—	05-23 00:22
Thunder vs. Spurs	3	$253	341	115	+226	open	—	05-23 00:22
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	2	$225	145	145	+0	open	—	05-03 02:10
Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5	3	$197	117	117	+0	Under	+$37	05-10 14:31
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5	2	$170	100	100	+0	Over	+$30	05-10 04:22
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	1	$151	296	0	+296	Knicks	$-151	05-10 00:21
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 4pt5	1	$150	218	0	+218	open	—	06-14 13:02
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to Score	2	$150	105	105	+0	open	—	05-17 03:33
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$147	227	0	+227	open	—	05-12 07:37
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$141	82	82	+0	Timberwolves	+$24	05-11 02:50
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5	2	$137	98	98	+0	Under	+$57	05-09 15:58
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5	2	$123	203	0	+203	Over	+$79	05-14 00:56
Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet?	1	$122	167	0	+167	open	—	05-13 14:12
nba gsw phx 2026 02 05	1	$120	182	0	+182	open	—	02-06 01:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?	2	$119	103	99	+4	open	—	04-27 23:23
will domantas sabonis be traded this season	1	$118	171	0	+171	open	—	01-14 02:12
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	2	$113	73	73	+0	Over	+$33	05-11 02:50
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)	2	$112	62	62	+0	Chelsea FC	+$12	05-09 13:52
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)	1	$102	204	0	+204	open	—	05-01 09:22
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	2	$101	62	61	+1	open	—	04-25 16:28
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	1	$99	132	0	+132	open	—	05-18 09:39
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$98	148	0	+148	open	—	05-14 04:41
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	2	$95	153	0	+153	Cavaliers	+$58	05-09 11:56
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)	2	$85	54	54	+0	open	—	05-01 02:53
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5	1	$85	160	0	+160	Over	+$75	05-11 02:52
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	1	$80	121	0	+121	open	—	04-26 06:59
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	1	$80	157	0	+157	Knicks	$-80	05-04 04:49
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5	1	$80	118	0	+118	open	—	05-19 08:16
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	1	$73	133	0	+133	VfL Wolfsburg	+$60	05-09 16:05
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	1	$70	97	0	+97	open	—	05-20 12:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 00:46:49	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0x3e87bd…
06-14 13:02:15	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 4pt5	Curaçao	BUY	218	69¢	$150	0xc04a53…
05-23 00:22:50	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	116	57¢	$66	0x929a89…
05-23 00:22:27	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	SELL	552	13¢	$69	0xfdf57f…
05-22 13:27:55	Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)	OGC Nice	BUY	96	62¢	$59	0x1a63d1…
05-22 13:24:04	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	SELL	115	53¢	$61	0x6e1134…
05-21 08:37:05	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	225	56¢	$126	0xa2e94c…
05-20 12:01:49	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	Over	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0x50b593…
05-20 01:13:30	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x55426f…
05-19 08:16:42	Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	118	68¢	$80	0x160e7d…
05-18 09:39:31	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	132	75¢	$99	0x9f5c18…
05-18 09:39:13	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xf7a14c…
05-17 03:33:22	Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x8c335b…
05-17 01:17:09	Seattle Sounders FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	105	43¢	$45	0x8b2cc4…
05-16 14:01:50	Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	102	44¢	$45	0xba10f7…
05-16 07:41:23	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5	Over	BUY	130	54¢	$70	0x8e85cf…
05-14 04:41:37	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	148	66¢	$98	0x493571…
05-14 04:38:21	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	151	68¢	$103	0x916046…
05-14 00:56:31	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	57	76¢	$43	0xf65bca…
05-13 14:12:57	Will Trump say "Temple" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	167	73¢	$122	0xd1f547…
05-13 08:43:29	Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x0436a3…
05-13 07:05:10	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	145	55¢	$80	0x5bd435…
05-12 08:00:11	Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0xd70993…
05-12 07:37:09	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x26e656…
05-11 13:24:28	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5	Over	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x5c054a…
05-11 13:24:07	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x62abdc…
05-11 02:55:10	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	141	69¢	$97	0x5f83c9…
05-11 02:52:29	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5	Over	BUY	160	53¢	$85	0xefba7f…
05-11 02:51:47	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5	Over	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0xdd6e49…
05-11 02:50:23	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0x867faa…
05-11 02:50:09	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0x0af469…
05-11 00:35:44	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	82	71¢	$59	0x5c86dd…
05-10 15:33:21	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xc30fec…
05-10 15:23:43	West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x7ce737…
05-10 14:55:12	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5	Over	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0x1868cc…
05-10 14:54:31	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5	Over	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0xaaf299…
05-10 14:31:06	Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	117	100¢	$117	0x1c3613…
05-10 11:42:12	Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xb578e7…
05-10 11:41:56	Celtic FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0x06fe2c…
05-10 04:22:55	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5	Over	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x92458a…
05-10 01:06:34	Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5	Over	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x85d1f7…
05-10 00:21:39	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	76ers	BUY	296	51¢	$151	0x7de8ba…
05-09 16:05:39	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	VfL Wolfsburg	BUY	133	55¢	$73	0xa12677…
05-09 15:58:46	Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x2b524a…
05-09 15:58:28	VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	98	100¢	$97	0x818d0a…
05-09 14:00:21	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	90	59¢	$53	0xf89a68…
05-09 13:57:55	VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xaff6ce…
05-09 13:52:58	Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xb64b04…
05-09 13:52:47	Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)	Chelsea FC	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xf87ab1…
05-09 11:56:48	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0xf71600…
05-09 11:51:48	Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x7ec2ad…
05-09 11:45:55	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	97	62¢	$60	0x2f8d51…
05-09 11:44:57	Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x912deb…
05-09 11:44:45	Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xdc52e0…
05-04 13:35:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x50cd9e…
05-04 04:52:54	Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x6f953f…
05-04 04:49:50	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	76ers	BUY	157	51¢	$80	0xe59056…
05-04 00:24:34	Raptors vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	104	50¢	$52	0x269954…
05-03 15:20:20	Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x473b2c…
05-03 14:11:50	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xc59526…
05-03 05:44:10	Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xaa6ee5…
05-03 02:10:36	Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	76ers	SELL	145	100¢	$144	0xa04609…
05-01 15:15:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x3cf4c9…
05-01 15:11:32	Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	76ers	BUY	145	56¢	$81	0xde83a3…
05-01 09:22:22	Spread: Pistons (-3.5)	Magic	BUY	204	50¢	$102	0x370dce…
05-01 02:53:50	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5	Under	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x91c27b…
05-01 02:53:08	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)	76ers	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x22827a…
05-01 01:40:08	Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5	Over	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x187c76…
05-01 00:26:56	Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0xac3061…
05-01 00:26:10	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)	76ers	BUY	54	57¢	$31	0x40648e…
04-30 05:57:22	FK Bodø/Glimt vs. IK Start: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	43	49¢	$21	0xd0d850…
04-28 23:12:14	Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x910b41…
04-28 23:12:04	Will Trump say "Normandy" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0x6574b7…
04-28 23:11:20	Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	52	60¢	$31	0x26357a…
04-28 00:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x996e03…
04-27 23:23:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x31c26a…
04-27 23:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x44e434…
04-27 12:14:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	91	56¢	$51	0xae2f8a…
04-27 12:08:58	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	89	78¢	$70	0xab7517…
04-27 12:00:50	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x1eb409…
04-27 12:00:42	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	No	BUY	212	2¢	$5	0x819660…
04-27 11:49:32	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x2357f7…
04-27 11:42:04	NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5	Under 5.5	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x8a9eae…
04-27 02:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	103	19¢	$20	0x2e317a…
04-27 02:42:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xcaac1c…
04-26 12:21:22	Will Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xc0e8c3…
04-26 06:59:38	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Spurs	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0x6a60de…
04-25 17:20:02	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5	Under 4.5	SELL	1,911	0¢	$2	0x7df8d7…
04-25 16:28:16	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	1. FSV Mainz 05	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x61cc44…
04-25 16:25:40	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Southampton FC	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xcb9876…
04-25 16:14:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	190	26¢	$50	0x2d6f57…
04-25 15:43:22	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0xbcca8a…
04-25 15:31:54	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5	Under 4.5	BUY	1,970	1¢	$11	0xe167b4…
04-25 09:58:36	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	1. FSV Mainz 05	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0xacf7fc…
04-25 09:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x17152c…
02-06 16:16:17	btc updown 15m 1770394500	Down	BUY	91	56¢	$51	0xf8fd52…
02-06 01:33:15	nba gsw phx 2026 02 05	Suns	BUY	182	66¢	$120	0xdc7738…
01-21 09:32:56	nba cle cha 2026 01 21 total 235pt5	Over	BUY	26	55¢	$14	0xe8bb86…
01-21 09:29:40	us strike on somalia by january 31 338	No	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x1fe530…
01-20 15:46:24	nba tor gsw 2026 01 20 spread home 6pt5	Raptors	BUY	34	62¢	$21	0x70b857…