Bumpy-Appreciation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$132

Unrealized P&L

-$33

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$11.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-04

last 07-09 04:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

69% — —

Other

28% 0% $-126

Crypto

2% 0% $-6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-29	$29	16¢	$-4	$-33	06-12 14:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran closes its airspace by june 15	17	$2.0K	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	06-08 22:50
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	7	$1.1K	7,730	0	+7,730	open	—	07-09 04:38
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	4	$750	600	600	+0	Yes	$-126	04-01 14:48
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	6	$634	11,592	0	+11,592	open	—	05-11 09:25
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	3	$590	671	671	+0	open	—	06-10 18:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$471	1,136	1,165	-29	open	—	06-12 14:50
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$467	274	274	+0	open	—	03-26 06:58
north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	2	$435	321	321	+0	open	—	03-31 18:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$362	250	250	+0	open	—	04-18 19:20
military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	5	$302	169	169	+0	open	—	03-29 09:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$293	0	300	-300	open	—	05-26 08:39
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$253	154	154	+0	open	—	03-21 23:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	2	$243	149	147	+2	open	—	04-19 00:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$242	147	147	+0	open	—	05-26 10:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	6	$220	282	282	+0	open	—	06-21 00:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$211	132	132	+0	open	—	06-09 06:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	1	$203	620	0	+620	open	—	06-19 03:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$203	0	253	-253	open	—	06-14 22:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$200	244	0	+244	open	—	04-18 23:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$154	424	60	+364	open	—	05-31 11:05
will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	5	$144	300	300	+0	open	—	06-11 21:22
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$139	94	94	+0	open	—	03-26 20:22
will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 20	2	$130	374	0	+374	open	—	03-17 16:28
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$120	182	0	+182	open	—	03-19 17:21
will trump visit china by march 31	3	$120	90	90	+0	open	—	03-17 18:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$100	156	0	+156	open	—	04-01 14:52
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$97	171	0	+171	open	—	03-23 12:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 13:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$68	40	40	+0	open	—	03-27 13:46
will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	1	$67	96	0	+96	open	—	03-20 00:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 04:38:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	186	13¢	$24	0x770874…
07-09 04:38:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,013	13¢	$132	0x01b144…
07-09 04:04:46	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	677	13¢	$88	0x1fd00b…
07-08 16:49:38	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,200	13¢	$156	0x775939…
07-08 14:09:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,069	15¢	$158	0x8aa910…
07-08 14:04:44	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	585	15¢	$87	0xc47677…
07-08 13:21:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	3,000	15¢	$450	0x0896c6…
06-21 00:01:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	86	7¢	$6	0xe54090…
06-20 23:50:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0xd41c60…
06-20 23:47:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x76528d…
06-20 23:46:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0x663027…
06-20 23:46:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	165	7¢	$12	0xfaad40…
06-19 03:48:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	620	33¢	$203	0x01425c…
06-19 03:46:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0x7eab6c…
06-14 22:57:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	253	80¢	$203	0xa6042f…
06-12 14:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,136	19¢	$216	0x42ee60…
06-11 21:22:00	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x73c406…
06-11 21:22:00	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x4dd2b5…
06-11 21:21:21	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xd9331e…
06-11 21:21:06	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	133	5¢	$7	0x510fd3…
06-10 21:50:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,136	22¢	$250	0xe35073…
06-10 19:12:57	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	300	43¢	$129	0x0ff80f…
06-10 18:21:36	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	Yes	SELL	593	45¢	$267	0xed82ab…
06-10 18:21:36	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	Yes	SELL	78	45¢	$35	0xc97a42…
06-10 18:18:42	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	Yes	BUY	671	43¢	$289	0x10a308…
06-09 06:47:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	132	84¢	$111	0x40c97c…
06-08 22:50:55	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	966	100¢	$966	0x2f7f44…
06-08 22:50:25	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x434f06…
06-08 22:43:00	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	409	100¢	$409	0xf8fa50…
06-08 22:30:09	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe4efc2…
06-08 22:30:07	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0xb6e814…
06-08 22:30:04	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5e41b2…
06-08 22:30:04	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x31a197…
06-08 22:24:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	18¢	$5	0x85f172…
06-08 22:21:30	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf65278…
06-08 22:21:22	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0x665895…
06-08 22:21:19	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x622725…
06-08 22:21:18	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xe677a7…
06-08 22:20:42	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5d5980…
06-08 22:20:31	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0x0db133…
06-08 22:20:30	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa0b296…
06-08 22:20:28	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x34d617…
06-08 22:12:13	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	249	100¢	$248	0xddce01…
06-01 11:59:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x6bd78e…
06-01 11:59:35	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1,750	12¢	$219	0x9e7dee…
05-31 11:05:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0xcabd41…
05-26 10:19:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	147	96¢	$142	0x8b2059…
05-26 08:39:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	300	98¢	$293	0xaac337…
05-14 17:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa19cbe…
05-14 03:44:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	424	36¢	$153	0x1c277e…
05-12 22:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x234b8c…
05-11 09:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xa3aa95…
05-11 09:25:38	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	6,250	0¢	$25	0xf024be…
05-11 08:31:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x57ea53…
05-06 14:53:08	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	2,500	4¢	$100	0x605d8e…
05-05 16:10:46	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	111	8¢	$9	0xe23fb9…
05-02 20:36:02	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x531b80…
04-27 17:27:36	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	741	27¢	$200	0x0a4a6a…
04-27 17:20:32	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	741	27¢	$200	0x86252d…
04-19 00:16:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	SELL	147	97¢	$143	0xc14471…
04-18 23:04:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x218163…
04-18 19:20:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	SELL	250	97¢	$242	0xa297eb…
04-14 17:07:24	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x42370a…
04-05 09:29:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	250	48¢	$120	0x3d4d79…
04-04 19:22:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x95586b…
04-01 14:52:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x086a69…
04-01 14:48:41	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	600	52¢	$312	0x08b843…
03-31 18:54:35	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	SELL	321	98¢	$315	0xa891c6…
03-29 15:53:52	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0x35ca99…
03-29 15:49:46	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0xd2bbac…
03-29 15:47:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	73¢	$54	0xe139f8…
03-29 09:08:44	military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	No	SELL	119	98¢	$117	0xcb9384…
03-27 13:53:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdcd19a…
03-27 13:53:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x12325e…
03-27 13:46:05	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x4656c6…
03-26 20:22:33	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	94	90¢	$85	0x74c584…
03-26 20:14:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x8ad3a1…
03-26 06:58:39	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	274	98¢	$267	0x4b5b2a…
03-23 12:45:59	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	171	57¢	$97	0xca2632…
03-23 12:29:51	military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xf2cae4…
03-23 09:46:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0xb2fc35…
03-21 23:11:31	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	154	97¢	$149	0xdbd9a0…
03-21 20:39:27	military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb948d8…
03-20 15:30:27	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0xbc8d40…
03-20 00:43:01	will israel take military action in gaza on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	96	70¢	$67	0x79951d…
03-19 17:29:31	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xa85fc7…
03-19 17:21:15	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	182	66¢	$120	0x951c7e…
03-19 14:05:57	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0xb7d587…
03-17 19:59:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xc16dd2…
03-17 18:29:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by march 31	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x77afed…
03-17 18:21:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x452488…
03-17 18:02:17	houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x24c695…
03-17 16:48:55	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xdf1d37…
03-17 16:38:25	north korea missile testlaunch by march 31	No	BUY	321	37¢	$120	0x3519f1…
03-17 16:28:21	will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 20	No	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0x4b171c…
03-17 16:27:47	will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 19	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x910043…
03-17 11:33:15	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x7fc691…
03-17 10:02:55	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x2535fa…
03-16 23:38:09	will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 20	No	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x57c124…
03-16 13:17:41	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x291f88…