Realized P&L
-$150
Unrealized P&L
+$56
Hit rate
71.5%
Resolved
20
Trades
25,193
lifetime
Volume
$1.04M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$41
Open exposure
$290
8 positions
First seen
2026-01-08
last 07-19 20:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
44%
Other
38% 79% +$31
Sports
14% 17% $-181
Tech
4%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +100 $58 88¢ $88 +$30 07-06 12:46
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +132 $-15 62¢ $83 +$97 07-06 17:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -92 $-56 66¢ $-61 $-5 06-15 21:48
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +25 $23 97¢ $24 +$1 06-17 19:42
Will UBS fail by end of 2026? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$0 06-30 22:38
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -328 $49 $-11 $-59 06-21 13:56
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +109 $12 $3 $-8 06-24 17:10
Will UBS fail by end of 2026? Yes +20 $-0 $0 +$1 06-30 23:34