Small-Chateau — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved

Trades

653

lifetime

Volume

$2.22K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-05 16:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

84% 100% +$6

Other

10% 100% +$2

Crypto

5% 35% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 210 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$706	205,533	200,033	+5,500	open	—	04-30 02:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$367	200	200	+0	open	—	05-12 06:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$227	117	117	+0	No	+$6	05-11 02:41
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	16	$82	3,315	3,315	+0	open	—	05-19 01:23
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	23	$58	1,690	1,690	+0	open	—	04-12 19:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	06-05 14:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$54	28	28	+0	open	—	06-01 10:01
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$41	2,617	0	+2,617	open	—	05-19 02:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	06-05 16:41
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?	15	$25	3,053	1,053	+2,000	open	—	04-12 20:55
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	3	$20	15,380	50	+15,330	open	—	04-14 07:31
highest temperature in london on april 11 2026 13corbelow	8	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	04-11 12:59
highest temperature in houston on april 13 2026 78 79f	3	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	04-12 05:08
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?	8	$17	883	483	+400	open	—	04-12 19:39
Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?	9	$16	2,300	700	+1,600	open	—	04-12 20:57
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?	12	$16	1,593	393	+1,200	open	—	04-12 20:42
Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?	10	$15	2,600	200	+2,400	open	—	04-12 20:57
Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?	8	$15	2,210	300	+1,910	open	—	04-12 20:57
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. NC Dinos	1	$14	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 11:07
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$13	526	526	+0	open	—	05-19 01:24
will trump post crypto or bitcoin on truth social this week	2	$13	20	20	+0	open	—	04-12 12:18
highest temperature in helsinki on april 13 2026 12corhigher	7	$13	15	10	+5	open	—	04-13 07:06
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?	6	$13	1,700	300	+1,400	open	—	04-12 21:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$12	210	210	+0	open	—	04-12 11:53
Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?	9	$12	1,300	300	+1,000	open	—	04-12 20:51
Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?	5	$12	1,702	302	+1,400	open	—	04-12 20:57
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	19	$11	1,160	1,265	-105	open	—	05-01 10:07
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?	10	$11	1,600	200	+1,400	open	—	04-12 20:58
highest temperature in busan on april 10 2026 21corhigher	3	$9	10	5	+5	open	—	04-10 01:18
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?	8	$9	2,134	200	+1,934	open	—	04-12 20:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 16:41:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	35	88¢	$30	0xfe7650…
06-05 14:01:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	29	98¢	$29	0xff9192…
06-01 10:09:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	29	94¢	$28	0x6bd9bf…
06-01 10:01:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xa5b64f…
05-30 03:20:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$26	0xb97830…
05-19 02:49:46	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0xba8266…
05-19 02:47:12	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x61f8da…
05-19 02:47:08	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x186841…
05-19 02:43:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	167	2¢	$3	0x077e7d…
05-19 02:36:31	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x821d6b…
05-19 02:35:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf5b080…
05-19 02:34:08	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	916	2¢	$15	0xa4200a…
05-19 02:33:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$16	0x65d423…
05-19 01:24:22	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	526	1¢	$5	0x53eb7a…
05-19 01:23:28	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	2,315	1¢	$23	0xe7be21…
05-19 01:20:15	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$12	0xc4984e…
05-18 12:00:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xa94375…
05-18 12:00:51	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xe4e717…
05-18 12:00:49	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x0e2545…
05-18 12:00:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xcaafa3…
05-18 12:00:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xaf88e4…
05-18 12:00:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x529d0b…
05-18 12:00:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xf8005a…
05-18 12:00:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xc9c119…
05-18 12:00:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8b7580…
05-18 12:00:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x53b506…
05-18 12:00:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xf65184…
05-18 12:00:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x7d4530…
05-18 12:00:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x42ab48…
05-18 11:53:51	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0xc9e878…
05-18 10:42:13	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0x7dbe75…
05-18 10:41:19	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	329	1¢	$5	0x282c6f…
05-18 10:29:23	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0x121661…
05-18 09:54:09	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3,206	1¢	$45	0xba7611…
05-14 18:40:05	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x86b634…
05-13 14:09:24	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0x1290c1…
05-13 11:22:35	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xeae6b5…
05-13 11:06:14	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	350	1¢	$3	0xea2f92…
05-13 11:05:25	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xedadff…
05-13 10:59:03	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb17a37…
05-13 10:58:58	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x259b58…
05-13 10:53:36	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa63d65…
05-13 10:31:49	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xc4e822…
05-13 10:24:49	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6b2c62…
05-13 10:24:36	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2fa830…
05-13 10:08:37	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8a4990…
05-13 10:05:49	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x7fcd0d…
05-13 01:43:47	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xa86f0f…
05-12 06:33:13	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd69bdd…
05-12 06:04:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xe15c9a…
05-12 05:30:11	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6aae0f…
05-11 02:41:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	117	100¢	$117	0xe4760c…
05-10 13:20:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	117	95¢	$111	0x128d9e…
05-10 12:31:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2e705f…
05-09 08:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2d8700…
05-09 08:00:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb59b67…
05-09 07:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x58c429…
05-09 07:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x95649e…
05-07 09:55:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 7?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x220657…
05-07 09:01:39	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0be0e8…
05-07 09:00:17	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xd8ac48…
05-07 09:00:17	XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0xc0048f…
05-07 08:55:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x7167f8…
05-07 08:55:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x698253…
05-07 08:55:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x340dac…
05-07 08:55:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd9fb7a…
05-07 08:51:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x3eaaed…
05-07 08:51:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x1e16db…
05-07 08:51:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x03ae27…
05-07 08:50:50	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x1e02ac…
05-07 08:50:22	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xed6ed0…
05-07 08:50:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x35519e…
05-07 08:46:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb31dd0…
05-07 08:46:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x61eb2d…
05-07 08:45:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x656bea…
05-07 08:45:39	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x2aad45…
05-07 08:45:37	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x881106…
05-07 08:43:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc1684b…
05-07 08:41:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x8747fc…
05-07 08:41:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x899f09…
05-07 08:41:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xe2cd33…
05-07 08:41:21	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x690704…
05-07 08:40:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xa696a8…
05-07 08:40:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xe4c21b…
05-07 08:40:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x68cdc8…
05-06 17:13:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6b4932…
05-06 17:10:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9042f6…
05-06 17:09:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc711b3…
05-06 16:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x56bd8b…
05-06 14:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3605c2…
05-04 17:02:16	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	395	0¢	$0	0x59898a…
05-04 16:50:30	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	305	0¢	$0	0xd65c24…
05-04 09:55:28	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	No	BUY	151	0¢	$0	0x63813e…
05-04 09:53:50	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	No	BUY	144	0¢	$0	0x68b018…
05-04 09:49:36	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	No	BUY	109	0¢	$0	0x081f0b…
05-04 09:49:14	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	No	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x627506…
05-04 09:44:22	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4?	No	BUY	68	0¢	$0	0xd203e5…
05-04 06:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xc1f6b1…
05-04 06:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x7397a2…
05-04 06:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xec00c9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b	80	$1.80K	612	05-12 20:47
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	79	$87.8K	5,734	05-03 01:06
(anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d	74	$54.0K	5,513	04-26 21:54
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	70	$22.8K	2,852	05-29 22:06
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	67	$283.9K	4,831	06-07 19:09
Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf	66	$4.65K	437	06-03 10:01
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	62	$131.3K	11,864	06-09 20:34
Full-Bow 0x59fe…14fd	56	$3.37K	1,596	05-06 09:41