Insistent-Armpit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$97

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

42.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$170

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-11 11:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

32% 76% +$6

Sports

27% 67% -$1

Crypto

27% 100% +$6

Politics

8% 87% -$155

Tech

5% 100% +$46

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-11).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		-26	-$13	18¢	$-5	+$9	06-05 01:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$3.0K	1,503	1,503	+0	No	+$0	02-10 12:23
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$2.9K	1,452	1,452	+0	No	-$1	02-20 06:20
will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	2	$2.9K	1,435	1,435	+0	No	+$0	02-07 00:27
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	2	$249	132	132	+0	Yes	+$9	05-26 01:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$212	218	0	+218	No	+$6	06-05 01:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$210	221	0	+221	Yes	-$210	06-11 11:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$132	143	0	+143	No	+$11	05-26 01:11
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	2	$105	55	55	+0	Yes	+$5	03-04 02:11
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$100	123	0	+123	Yes	+$23	04-28 02:54
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$60	32	32	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 02:54
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$55	30	30	+0	Yes	+$4	04-16 02:39
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$48	28	28	+0	Yes	+$6	05-15 07:40
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	2	$47	24	24	+0	Yes	+$1	02-03 11:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-16 02:39
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-28 02:53
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$1	04-28 02:53
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	02-16 10:02
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	02-01 10:09
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$31	41	0	+41	Yes	+$10	04-10 01:45
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	04-28 02:53
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$31	21	21	+0	No	-$1	03-31 05:17
will artemis ii launch by february 28	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	02-27 02:54
Kash Patel out by April 30?	1	$30	33	0	+33	No	+$3	04-28 02:55
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	02-17 08:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$24	35	0	+35	No	+$11	05-26 01:11
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	01-20 05:25
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	1	$22	28	0	+28	Yes	+$6	01-06 02:25
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$22	29	0	+29	Yes	+$7	02-17 11:45
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	1	$22	24	0	+24	Yes	+$2	05-17 13:32
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?	1	$21	22	0	+22	No	+$1	05-17 13:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 11:05:10	will anthropic ipo by july 31 2026	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x821644…
06-11 11:04:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	221	95¢	$210	0x10d338…
06-05 01:07:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	218	97¢	$212	0x238a9e…
06-05 01:07:27	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	26	51¢	$13	0xa000a0…
05-26 01:11:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	68¢	$24	0x00690f…
05-26 01:11:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	143	92¢	$132	0x3a4cad…
05-26 01:10:46	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	132	98¢	$129	0x62cd6e…
05-17 13:32:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x940410…
05-17 13:32:04	Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x1647ca…
05-17 13:31:27	Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x96d073…
05-15 07:41:29	Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x9d558e…
05-15 07:41:01	Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1891a5…
05-15 07:40:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0xa4b532…
05-07 05:18:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0x09fa74…
05-07 05:18:16	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	91¢	$120	0xabb1da…
04-28 02:55:20	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x73d1ff…
04-28 02:54:36	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x9e8553…
04-28 02:54:08	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	82¢	$100	0xc5f628…
04-28 02:53:42	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xa3fa52…
04-28 02:53:34	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xf900bc…
04-28 02:53:28	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x85c42c…
04-16 02:42:02	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x921a8f…
04-16 02:41:32	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	No	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x8b6e99…
04-16 02:41:06	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xea97c0…
04-16 02:39:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xb5af08…
04-16 02:39:06	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x3d9493…
04-10 01:45:39	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	41	76¢	$31	0x03a813…
04-09 01:40:11	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$25	0xb925f2…
04-09 01:37:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x2f9e1c…
03-31 05:18:03	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x507d3d…
03-31 05:17:39	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	21	68¢	$15	0xc8c2e9…
03-25 08:31:27	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0xc33e1f…
03-25 08:31:17	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xff474f…
03-11 05:25:29	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x9ed0fc…
03-11 05:24:47	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x7558d6…
03-04 02:13:31	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x4ac937…
03-04 02:11:45	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xf7cd9b…
02-27 02:55:02	deepseek v4 released by february 28	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xa407f4…
02-27 02:54:12	will artemis ii launch by february 28	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x60d2c2…
02-20 06:22:20	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x93aab9…
02-20 06:20:28	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	1,452	99¢	$1,437	0x441124…
02-19 05:26:20	will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xf43523…
02-17 11:45:37	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0x049409…
02-17 11:43:51	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,452	99¢	$1,439	0x8df535…
02-17 08:57:39	Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x397218…
02-16 10:02:47	us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x80b087…
02-10 12:27:01	Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xbd06fb…
02-10 12:26:39	will artemis ii launch by february 28	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x97eaa8…
02-10 12:23:39	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	1,503	99¢	$1,488	0x255aaf…
02-07 00:28:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,503	99¢	$1,488	0xc5e701…
02-07 00:27:23	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	SELL	1,435	100¢	$1,429	0xb57ba0…
02-05 01:49:23	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	1,435	100¢	$1,429	0xdbb256…
02-03 11:53:52	will giannis antetokounmpo be traded this season	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x5b089c…
02-03 11:53:28	will russia enter toretske by february 28	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x4c110e…
02-03 11:53:02	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa295d8…
02-01 10:09:56	us strikes iran by february 1 2026	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xcb91f8…
02-01 09:13:22	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xad3099…
02-01 09:12:24	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	Yes	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x2a4ae7…
01-26 02:54:12	Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x9d8c5c…
01-26 02:53:44	Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x3cf8b5…
01-20 05:25:18	Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x8ae9ee…
01-16 02:16:24	will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	SELL	21	26¢	$5	0xdbb3c2…
01-06 02:25:29	Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	BUY	28	79¢	$22	0xe5c46d…