Careless-Ale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$506

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 06-16 11:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

84% 3% -$390

Politics

6% 0% -$76

Crypto

6% 31% -$33

Pop-Culture

4% 0% -$7

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-16).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	3	$274	192	192	+0	Yes	+$61	06-10 12:58
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?	3	$230	248	248	+0	Yes	-$31	06-12 12:58
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?	3	$123	85	85	+0	Yes	-$4	06-14 16:24
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	11	$81	84	73	+10	No	-$30	06-14 21:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$72	1,499	0	+1,499	No	-$72	05-25 14:52
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	1	$65	463	0	+463	No	-$65	06-06 13:43
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?	1	$58	128	0	+128	No	-$58	06-11 12:04
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	2	$57	416	416	+0	No	-$7	05-20 22:08
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12?	1	$56	527	0	+527	No	-$56	06-12 12:32
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4?	1	$50	5,780	0	+5,780	No	-$50	05-20 13:43
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	6	$49	52	52	+0	Yes	-$19	06-14 21:10
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?	2	$29	62	0	+62	No	-$29	06-12 13:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:25 UTC	2	$20	11	11	+0	Up	+$0	06-16 03:27
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	2	$17	97	97	+0	No	-$2	05-25 13:02
will usd fall to 1pt7m iranian rials by june 30	1	$17	612	0	+612	Yes	-$17	06-16 11:59
fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	5	$13	538	0	+538	New Zealand	-$13	06-16 02:54
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30?	2	$11	825	825	+0	Yes	-$7	05-20 22:16
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$10	3,632	0	+3,632	No	-$10	05-20 22:11
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$10	363	0	+363	No	-$10	05-20 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC	1	$10	16	0	+16	Up	+$6	06-16 03:31
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$10	1,000	980	+20	No	$0	05-20 21:59
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$9	612	0	+612	No	-$9	05-20 22:12
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?	1	$7	1,326	0	+1,326	Yes	-$7	05-20 13:51
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12?	1	$7	233	0	+233	No	-$7	06-12 13:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC	2	$6	131	0	+131	Down	-$6	06-16 03:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:10 UTC	1	$5	100	0	+100	Up	-$5	06-16 03:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Down	-$5	05-25 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	1	$5	250	0	+250	Down	-$5	05-25 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Down	-$5	05-25 02:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:05 UTC	1	$5	56	0	+56	Down	-$5	06-16 03:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-16 11:59:51	will usd fall to 1pt7m iranian rials by june 30	No	BUY	612	3¢	$17	0xd1e2cc…
06-16 03:31:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x5c3328…
06-16 03:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0x9a26a5…
06-16 03:26:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x776336…
06-16 03:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4d6ddb…
06-16 03:18:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	81	6¢	$5	0x635afa…
06-16 03:14:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:10 UTC	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7554df…
06-16 03:08:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xfaaeed…
06-16 02:59:37	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xcc3582…
06-16 02:59:28	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xec2eb7…
06-16 02:59:06	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread away 2pt5	New Zealand	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0bc5a0…
06-16 02:54:39	Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	IR Iran	BUY	122	1¢	$1	0xad457c…
06-16 02:53:49	Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	IR Iran	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd402de…
06-16 02:53:15	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	IR Iran	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb6a937…
06-16 02:52:13	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	IR Iran	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0xb50ce9…
06-16 02:50:15	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	IR Iran	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xf1d44e…
06-16 02:49:16	Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)	New Zealand	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x94c3bc…
06-16 02:38:12	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread away 2pt5	New Zealand	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xd92232…
06-16 02:36:51	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread away 2pt5	New Zealand	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xaca8d4…
06-16 02:36:07	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	IR Iran	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x4799fa…
06-16 02:34:37	fifwc irn nzl 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	IR Iran	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x04008f…
06-16 00:53:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 00:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0x7455d5…
06-16 00:49:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-16 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe6e449…
06-14 21:35:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x24b865…
06-14 21:34:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x82b997…
06-14 21:28:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x28ff5b…
06-14 21:20:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7959e1…
06-14 21:17:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x843f48…
06-14 21:17:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xf7fafa…
06-14 21:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xa685e4…
06-14 21:10:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xa6c0dd…
06-14 17:30:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb98f0a…
06-14 17:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0xc51461…
06-14 17:16:39	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0x786a58…
06-14 17:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	11	66¢	$7	0x5db744…
06-14 17:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0xf96846…
06-14 17:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	36	66¢	$24	0x3be394…
06-14 17:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	SELL	73	34¢	$25	0x4f44fd…
06-14 17:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x5f05c2…
06-14 16:58:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4cecc6…
06-14 16:53:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x002d36…
06-14 16:53:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x74a7ea…
06-14 16:53:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x594a51…
06-14 16:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x51f2b0…
06-14 16:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x20a9db…
06-14 16:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x016d86…
06-14 16:53:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14?	Yes	BUY	42	73¢	$31	0x6070eb…
06-14 16:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	56	7¢	$4	0x977385…
06-14 16:24:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	SELL	85	70¢	$60	0xd6d3d6…
06-14 15:47:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	55	83¢	$46	0xa0b769…
06-14 15:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xc467bf…
06-12 13:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa75e93…
06-12 13:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0x0e6d98…
06-12 13:04:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	233	3¢	$7	0xd6f5bf…
06-12 12:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?	Yes	SELL	127	30¢	$38	0xac238e…
06-12 12:33:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	224	0¢	$1	0xac09d7…
06-12 12:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	527	11¢	$56	0x9a2adb…
06-12 12:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?	Yes	SELL	122	51¢	$61	0x9b1e7f…
06-12 11:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	248	53¢	$130	0xabae3a…
06-11 12:04:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	128	45¢	$58	0xf70825…
06-10 13:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x6e60e5…
06-10 13:04:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x5e596c…
06-10 12:58:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	Yes	SELL	192	87¢	$167	0xd0d343…
06-10 11:38:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x3586a7…
06-10 11:37:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	140	54¢	$76	0x61629b…
06-06 13:43:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,890	0¢	$2	0x23f7e1…
06-06 13:43:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	463	14¢	$65	0x95eddd…
05-25 14:52:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x2477b5…
05-25 14:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x3299e4…
05-25 13:02:39	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	7¢	$7	0x5ebe6a…
05-25 11:54:26	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	291	0¢	$0	0x53de92…
05-25 11:54:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x12afa1…
05-25 03:48:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	219	3¢	$7	0x0b7da2…
05-25 03:47:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x97e255…
05-25 03:37:09	Will @vibhu win the Phoenix trading competition?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x2d0918…
05-25 03:28:50	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x1a5892…
05-25 02:56:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	119	3¢	$4	0x795161…
05-25 02:55:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd6b2c8…
05-25 02:29:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x058122…
05-25 02:25:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	90	6¢	$5	0xcb0fcc…
05-25 02:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xe01bd6…
05-25 02:16:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x95de13…
05-25 02:02:18	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x0f9741…
05-24 16:47:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,005	5¢	$55	0xe1f9d2…
05-20 22:23:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x264bb0…
05-20 22:16:01	Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30?	No	SELL	825	0¢	$2	0x43e2ac…
05-20 22:12:41	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	612	1¢	$9	0xf94abb…
05-20 22:11:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,632	0¢	$10	0xb635e4…
05-20 22:10:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	296	3¢	$8	0x8e8346…
05-20 22:08:40	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	SELL	416	6¢	$25	0x5ace03…
05-20 21:59:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	980	0¢	$5	0x49c17c…
05-20 18:36:07	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	416	8¢	$32	0x5123f2…
05-20 17:25:52	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x06a260…
05-20 16:24:47	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xdf4a32…
05-20 14:29:47	Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30?	No	BUY	825	1¢	$9	0xbff564…
05-20 14:25:26	Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xea16c1…
05-20 13:51:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4?	No	BUY	1,326	1¢	$7	0x13c9d4…
05-20 13:43:14	Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	5,780	1¢	$50	0xabe6f1…