Fearful-Socialist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$91

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

1,483

Trades

3,904

lifetime

Volume

$21.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$760

12 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 10-23 02:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Other

83% 80% +$52

Politics

15% 80% +$61

Sports

2% 79% -$38

Pop-Culture

0% 83% +$17

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+180	$175	100¢	$180	+$4	06-06 05:50
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+180	$178	100¢	$180	+$2	06-06 05:50
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+180	$171	100¢	$179	+$8	06-06 05:50
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+180	$166	99¢	$178	+$12	06-06 05:50
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	06-05 14:24
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	06-05 14:24
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	+$0	06-05 14:24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+180	$31	4¢	$6	-$24	06-06 05:50
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	$0	06-11 12:54
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	+10	$7	11¢	$1	-$6	06-05 14:24
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	-10	-$6	9¢	$-1	+$5	06-12 19:14
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	-10	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	06-12 08:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?	103	$387	510	5	+505	open	—	10-23 02:56
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?	115	$346	570	20	+550	open	—	09-10 06:26
Will ACT New Zealand win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	61	$262	300	15	+285	open	—	08-05 08:00
Will New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	60	$253	295	20	+275	open	—	08-31 19:21
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5?	32	$242	259	0	+259	No	+$16	06-05 12:21
Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	55	$237	270	45	+225	open	—	10-23 02:56
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	63	$236	315	0	+315	open	—	06-06 20:35
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	63	$224	315	0	+315	open	—	06-06 20:35
Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?	110	$215	550	0	+550	open	—	06-07 14:20
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5?	32	$195	260	0	+260	Yes	-$195	06-05 12:21
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	9	$178	180	0	+180	open	—	06-06 05:50
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	9	$175	180	0	+180	open	—	06-06 05:50
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	9	$171	180	0	+180	open	—	06-06 05:50
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	9	$166	180	0	+180	open	—	06-06 05:50
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	18	$114	151	0	+151	No	+$37	05-29 13:32
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?	101	$112	505	0	+505	open	—	06-06 17:22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	13	$86	100	10	+90	No	+$23	05-29 13:33
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	29	$86	145	0	+145	No	+$59	06-06 13:55
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	10	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-27 10:32
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	10	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-27 10:32
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	10	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	05-27 10:32
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?	5	$78	81	0	+81	No	+$3	06-07 21:59
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	9	$77	80	0	+80	No	+$3	06-07 17:34
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8?	12	$77	88	0	+88	No	+$11	06-08 18:02
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	9	$77	80	0	+80	No	+$3	06-07 17:34
Will the Republican Party win the PA-17 House seat?	20	$76	95	10	+85	open	—	08-22 03:23
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5?	11	$76	82	0	+82	No	+$6	06-05 11:43
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	29	$76	145	0	+145	Yes	-$76	06-06 13:55
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5?	34	$75	255	0	+255	No	+$180	06-05 12:21
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	23	$73	209	0	+209	Yes	-$73	05-29 13:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 02:57:39	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xae3e6a…
10-23 02:57:33	Will Malta win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xa6aef3…
10-23 02:57:15	Will Portugal win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf6b3fb…
10-23 02:57:06	Will Azerbaijan win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x6d47a1…
10-23 02:56:54	Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0x3b0588…
10-23 02:56:29	Will Ireland win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x297ed3…
10-23 02:56:21	Will Italy win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xee77b3…
10-23 02:56:14	Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x88670f…
10-03 22:36:28	Will Spain win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0x473402…
10-01 18:15:26	Will Green Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	275	1¢	$2	0xa6c55d…
09-11 06:55:01	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xa63813…
09-10 19:26:24	Will Croatia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xc572d8…
09-10 06:26:46	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xb6cc56…
09-05 15:56:36	Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x2864d7…
08-31 19:21:00	Will New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x0d79f7…
08-31 00:35:39	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xb1a237…
08-28 21:10:13	Will North Macedonia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbe9f1c…
08-26 08:36:31	Will Montenegro win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xa1686f…
08-26 08:36:15	Will San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xe38993…
08-26 08:33:58	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x70e398…
08-26 08:33:46	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x345555…
08-26 08:33:27	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xa661ac…
08-26 08:32:43	Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xc7b1db…
08-26 08:32:36	Will Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xdebfea…
08-26 08:32:30	Will Stabilitātei! (ST!) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0x8d48ad…
08-26 08:32:03	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0x925cd9…
08-26 08:31:54	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0xc790b5…
08-26 08:31:49	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0xa8706a…
08-26 08:31:43	Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0xeba37e…
08-26 08:31:39	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0x633784…
08-26 08:31:07	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0xaa7b3d…
08-23 10:52:51	Will Cyprus win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x5460f3…
08-22 03:23:46	Will the Republican Party win the PA-17 House seat?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xb94361…
08-19 00:02:19	Will Trump announce Brett Giroir as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?	No	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0xfce918…
08-12 21:48:43	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0xe8f894…
08-11 06:20:01	Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0x852361…
08-09 11:42:06	Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x843e64…
08-08 09:30:51	Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x488120…
08-08 05:09:55	Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0xe50894…
08-08 05:08:12	Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	No	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0x0be79b…
08-07 08:52:04	Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x817074…
08-07 08:37:40	Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x9ae209…
08-07 08:22:45	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x913a1d…
08-07 08:22:45	Will the Labour Party win 55 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x0a3553…
08-07 08:22:43	Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x60958c…
08-07 08:22:19	Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x020e44…
08-07 06:14:48	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x296c50…
08-07 06:14:46	Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x502361…
08-07 06:14:40	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x7c313d…
08-07 06:14:39	Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xedf1ae…
08-07 06:14:33	Will the Labour Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x7096b7…
08-07 06:14:33	Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x0e215e…
08-07 02:11:34	Will Trump announce Sara Brenner as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x6f7fbb…
08-06 14:04:44	Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x8be37c…
08-06 10:54:41	Will Albania win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x470683…
08-06 05:23:27	Will Netherlands win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x0c55fa…
08-06 03:02:51	Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6fbe55…
08-05 20:40:06	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 60,000 and 65,000?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x70c436…
08-05 08:00:08	Will ACT New Zealand win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x4bf000…
08-05 07:55:14	Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x7e58bf…
08-05 07:52:33	Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 160 and 170?	No	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0xebc38f…
07-30 20:26:20	Will 53 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xcb737a…
07-30 15:34:39	Will 46 or fewer senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x8392a8…
07-21 19:03:12	Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xa2cd56…
07-21 19:03:09	Will Beto Richa win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe83703…
07-10 03:41:28	Will 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x0b9740…
07-10 03:41:25	Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xd67e37…
07-10 03:39:58	Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x036c71…
07-09 03:07:16	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	12	88¢	$10	0x3b9783…
07-09 02:20:28	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x555990…
07-09 02:20:04	Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xb2b6e1…
06-23 08:10:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x8c3fdc…
06-22 15:21:50	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x32dcfc…
06-22 14:17:10	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xd58cd1…
06-22 13:33:59	Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in June?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x085847…
06-22 13:14:20	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xa705d6…
06-22 12:39:29	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?	No	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0xbbeb08…
06-17 22:58:50	Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xa7fb97…
06-14 12:31:46	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 65,000 and 70,000?	No	SELL	13	87¢	$12	0x6415ef…
06-14 01:44:51	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x8eb5d5…
06-14 01:44:45	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x904520…
06-13 04:41:34	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xf950dc…
06-13 04:41:34	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 80,000 and 85,000?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0xcc30e7…
06-13 04:41:34	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xa2efa7…
06-13 04:41:34	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x30507c…
06-12 19:14:25	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x7ef17a…
06-12 11:14:46	Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xff2e1f…
06-12 08:40:07	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be at least 85,000?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x72aa46…
06-12 08:36:57	Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xe74631…
06-12 08:36:51	Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x3aada7…
06-12 08:36:43	Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xaa0954…
06-12 08:34:39	Will 57 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xb262b2…
06-12 08:34:31	Will 56 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xa2253f…
06-12 08:34:25	Will 55 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x649477…
06-12 08:26:51	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x2cb2a6…
06-11 13:46:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xca1368…
06-11 13:46:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x67315c…
06-11 13:28:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on June 11?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x96694d…
06-11 13:28:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xc5eb57…
06-11 13:28:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 11?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xb4791e…