Innocent-Terrapin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.22K

Unrealized P&L

+$606

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

111

Trades

41,210

lifetime

Volume

$4.45M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$108

Open exposure

$19.1K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-20 19:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Politics

79% 57% +$4,668

Other

21% 63% -$6,891

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 306 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+17,938	$14,393	86¢	$15.4K	+$988	09-15 11:23
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+17,938	$3,351	14¢	$2.4K	-$929	09-15 11:23
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	+1,153	-$356	84¢	$963	+$1,318	10-20 19:09
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+1,154	$1,429	16¢	$185	-$1,245	10-20 19:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+67	-$641	88¢	$60	+$701	10-20 19:54
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	+43	-$77	84¢	$36	+$113	10-19 06:02
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	+96	$72	16¢	$16	-$56	10-19 06:02
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	+71	$293	12¢	$8	-$284	10-20 19:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2,886	$417.4K	277,414	289,152	-11,738	No	+$18,862	02-28 08:40
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2,029	$398.1K	308,924	286,472	+22,452	No	+$1,357	02-28 07:10
fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	396	$343.7K	182,569	171,950	+10,619	No	-$3,929	03-06 21:10
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	2,139	$168.7K	297,142	268,932	+28,209	No	+$492	02-28 07:10
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	362	$150.8K	83,555	82,871	+684	No	+$48	02-21 03:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2,286	$145.0K	289,418	292,573	-3,154	Yes	-$19,674	02-28 08:40
will the us next strike iran on february 23 2026 et	260	$136.6K	127,160	126,463	+697	No	+$138	02-24 21:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3,129	$133.7K	121,648	120,146	+1,502	Yes	+$1,103	06-20 22:19
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	200	$132.6K	81,749	75,705	+6,044	No	+$218	02-23 08:29
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	258	$125.2K	131,616	107,273	+24,344	No	+$91	02-24 04:18
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	799	$118.3K	63,057	63,057	+1	Yes	+$745	04-12 21:47
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	3,412	$114.7K	140,864	130,034	+10,830	No	-$144	06-20 22:02
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	236	$113.7K	68,349	68,327	+22	No	+$133	02-27 00:49
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	355	$107.9K	99,510	92,767	+6,744	No	-$182	02-20 02:27
will the us next strike iran on february 18 2026 et	622	$104.5K	84,736	84,647	+90	No	+$120	02-19 00:46
another us government shutdown by february 14	1,270	$99.1K	89,760	89,485	+275	No	-$2,656	02-15 02:43
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	284	$94.3K	91,336	83,090	+8,246	No	+$165	02-25 10:44
will the us next strike iran on february 19 2026 et	375	$84.6K	99,642	92,527	+7,115	No	+$411	02-20 02:27
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	293	$81.7K	89,623	62,232	+27,391	No	-$31	02-25 02:52
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	533	$77.2K	54,800	44,323	+10,477	No	+$196	02-09 22:08
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	1,219	$74.8K	94,172	92,634	+1,539	No	+$3,488	02-15 02:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	555	$64.9K	59,206	59,139	+67	open	—	10-20 19:54
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	554	$64.6K	85,421	84,687	+734	No	+$104	02-19 00:46
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	1,065	$59.4K	61,931	54,055	+7,876	Yes	+$732	04-12 21:17
will the us next strike iran on february 17 2026 et	26	$58.4K	29,311	30,676	-1,365	No	+$98	02-18 02:34
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	197	$54.9K	55,131	50,332	+4,799	Yes	+$213	06-28 07:00
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	1,027	$54.0K	59,446	55,857	+3,589	Yes	-$481	04-12 21:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	208	$51.7K	57,982	52,196	+5,786	No	+$8	06-28 07:00
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	565	$51.5K	57,452	57,381	+71	open	—	10-20 19:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	750	$51.3K	47,217	45,202	+2,015	Yes	-$13	09-21 08:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 19:54:44	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	154	12¢	$18	0x70f4b7…
10-20 19:54:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	154	88¢	$136	0x0cca9b…
10-20 19:09:02	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xa76caf…
10-20 19:09:00	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0x138295…
10-20 19:05:24	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xbd12d6…
10-20 19:05:24	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x2aaa60…
10-20 17:51:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xf11e13…
10-20 17:51:17	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x313588…
10-20 16:39:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	250	86¢	$215	0x85bafd…
10-20 16:39:14	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	250	14¢	$35	0x3f7347…
10-20 07:14:53	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	1,070	14¢	$150	0xefb8f8…
10-20 07:14:52	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,070	85¢	$910	0x182f6d…
10-20 05:42:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,067	88¢	$939	0x8abcf0…
10-20 05:42:26	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	1,067	12¢	$128	0x5a17d9…
10-20 05:11:30	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x6a4c00…
10-20 05:11:30	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x699b2e…
10-20 04:50:17	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	49	14¢	$7	0xea7971…
10-20 04:50:17	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	85¢	$42	0xca58ec…
10-20 04:15:29	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x2b8ac7…
10-20 04:15:26	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	45	13¢	$6	0xc3a719…
10-20 04:15:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	45	87¢	$39	0x84fb92…
10-19 19:21:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	180	87¢	$157	0x68208b…
10-19 19:21:50	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	BUY	180	12¢	$22	0x1ba682…
10-19 19:20:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	170	87¢	$148	0xbed920…
10-19 19:20:09	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	170	11¢	$19	0x9e29a3…
10-19 10:55:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,360	87¢	$1,183	0xb3dd4f…
10-19 10:55:48	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	BUY	1,360	12¢	$163	0x5bbb42…
10-19 06:47:33	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	68	13¢	$9	0xac4e56…
10-19 06:47:33	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x0e0889…
10-19 06:02:27	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	133	14¢	$19	0xc47c09…
10-19 06:02:27	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	133	86¢	$114	0x9dc611…
10-19 04:50:39	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	23	15¢	$3	0x8ea6ca…
10-19 04:50:39	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	23	85¢	$19	0x4b8648…
10-19 04:50:32	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	53	85¢	$45	0xb02365…
10-19 04:50:20	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0xf38de0…
10-19 04:50:20	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x0c4874…
10-19 04:50:17	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	209	15¢	$32	0xa0be14…
10-19 04:50:17	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	209	85¢	$177	0x43c886…
10-19 03:16:36	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	58	13¢	$8	0xe8b138…
10-19 03:16:36	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	58	87¢	$50	0x9e3961…
10-19 03:00:45	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x7275da…
10-19 03:00:44	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x436206…
10-19 00:58:35	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	16	14¢	$2	0x7fd493…
10-19 00:58:35	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0x44164b…
10-19 00:58:06	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	89	86¢	$77	0xbd3565…
10-19 00:58:06	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	89	14¢	$12	0x8d43ad…
10-18 23:39:33	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xea182a…
10-18 23:39:32	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	38	83¢	$32	0x8db783…
10-18 23:16:18	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xc317da…
10-18 23:16:18	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xb25c6e…
10-18 23:15:30	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	BUY	81	85¢	$69	0x780f2f…
10-18 23:15:30	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	81	14¢	$11	0x5ea4dd…
10-18 23:15:08	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x5c7c6b…
10-18 23:15:08	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x528735…
10-18 23:15:08	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x4aca3a…
10-18 23:15:08	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0x3c31dc…
10-18 23:14:50	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$16	0x744018…
10-18 23:11:41	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	62	17¢	$10	0x94a545…
10-18 23:11:41	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	62	83¢	$51	0x3896ab…
10-18 06:00:27	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xe853d5…
10-18 06:00:27	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xb59ba2…
10-18 04:47:53	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	82¢	$32	0xcef780…
10-18 04:47:53	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x05c922…
10-18 04:33:56	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0x4fee4a…
10-18 04:33:56	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x08801e…
10-18 03:26:12	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	65	18¢	$12	0xfd4b24…
10-18 03:26:12	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	65	82¢	$53	0x419cce…
10-18 02:35:15	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0x4e4263…
10-18 02:35:15	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	38	82¢	$31	0x451d91…
10-18 00:29:32	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xd43673…
10-18 00:29:30	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xc4ebc4…
10-18 00:28:33	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	246	17¢	$42	0xb6c122…
10-18 00:28:33	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	246	82¢	$201	0x3cdd96…
10-18 00:28:27	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x3c618b…
10-18 00:28:27	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	27	18¢	$5	0x0027d4…
10-17 15:30:14	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	23	83¢	$19	0xd54319…
10-17 15:30:12	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	23	17¢	$4	0xd6ebb1…
10-17 15:14:00	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0xddaa8f…
10-17 15:14:00	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0xaab0a5…
10-17 13:41:35	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	250	18¢	$45	0xddc064…
10-17 13:41:35	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	250	82¢	$205	0x2dae06…
10-17 11:51:05	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	70	82¢	$58	0x3a6a5f…
10-17 11:51:05	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	70	18¢	$13	0x2e8f2a…
10-17 05:43:49	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xfc8312…
10-17 05:43:49	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x79345a…
10-17 05:43:14	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0xbf7226…
10-17 05:43:14	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0x5226da…
10-17 02:46:26	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x513c44…
10-17 02:46:26	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x2caa25…
10-17 02:44:24	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x8d530c…
10-17 02:44:24	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x85a412…
10-17 02:43:51	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xec6773…
10-17 02:43:51	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xb717d9…
10-17 02:43:38	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x23b398…
10-17 02:43:36	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	30	22¢	$7	0xcfab5b…
10-17 02:43:36	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	30	78¢	$23	0x252d13…
10-17 02:43:36	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x0199d4…
10-17 02:42:33	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	114	23¢	$26	0x51eaef…
10-16 23:30:14	Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0xd29e47…
10-16 23:30:14	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x9f2f91…