Alarming-Panpipe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.18K

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

Trades

160

lifetime

Volume

$23.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$144

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-02-18

last 10-08 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

59% 51% -$357

Politics

41% 55% -$1,823

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-118	-$34	8¢	$-10	+$24	05-03 19:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	3	$1.5K	881	881	+0	Yes	+$285	07-03 22:33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	6	$1.4K	1,038	1,038	+0	Yes	+$551	03-12 10:21
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$1.2K	642	642	+0	No	+$20	02-27 19:02
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	3	$1.2K	715	715	+0	Yes	+$271	07-11 22:55
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	3	$1.0K	850	850	+0	Spain	-$4	07-13 15:06
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	4	$941	1,944	1,944	+0	No	-$249	07-16 21:17
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$844	2,004	2,004	+0	No	-$803	03-31 10:46
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	1	$800	1,538	0	+1,538	No	-$800	07-18 10:55
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	2	$724	367	367	+0	Yes	+$4	07-05 22:03
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$704	935	0	+935	Argentina	+$232	07-11 22:56
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	7	$674	3,022	2,145	+878	No	-$636	05-03 19:11
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	3	$663	570	570	+0	Egypt	-$14	07-03 20:20
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	2	$650	425	425	+0	Yes	+$199	07-15 20:48
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	6	$623	980	980	+0	Yes	-$1	07-16 21:17
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte1	4	$617	567	567	+0	Yes	+$118	07-05 21:42
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	3	$424	502	151	+351	Yes	+$175	07-10 20:52
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$400	1,176	1,176	+0	Yes	+$0	02-27 16:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	4	$392	680	680	+0	No	-$5	06-09 10:34
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$371	281	281	+0	Yes	+$191	06-19 12:03
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	3	$330	824	824	+0	No	-$10	07-18 18:10
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	2	$329	247	247	+0	Yes	+$116	07-07 21:53
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	1	$300	504	0	+504	Yes	+$204	03-07 09:30
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals mikel oyarzabal gte1	1	$295	634	0	+634	No	-$295	07-06 19:14
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	3	$276	689	689	+0	No	-$179	04-12 21:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	4	$271	404	404	+0	Yes	-$180	03-01 07:31
Will France win on 2026-10-02?	2	$261	315	315	+0	No	-$173	10-02 20:30
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$249	560	560	+0	No	-$199	04-22 16:16
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	1	$240	324	0	+324	Morocco	+$84	07-04 14:29
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	2	$239	315	315	+0	No	-$19	07-07 20:55
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	2	$236	321	0	+321	No	-$236	06-29 19:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 16:47:24	Kuopion Palloseura vs. AC Oulu: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	72	72¢	$52	0x28b271…
10-08 15:13:21	Will FK Karvan Yevlakh win on 2026-10-08?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$53	0x4dc412…
10-08 09:39:45	Will FK Karvan Yevlakh win on 2026-10-08?	No	BUY	53	90¢	$48	0x23547d…
10-06 16:35:53	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x29518e…
10-06 14:44:35	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0x8630f1…
10-06 14:43:47	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	SELL	241	12¢	$29	0xef6f9c…
10-06 14:04:18	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	241	39¢	$94	0x7fff32…
10-04 17:51:59	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	139	50¢	$70	0x6a8771…
10-04 17:51:08	Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04?	No	SELL	74	97¢	$72	0x8871cf…
10-04 15:07:01	Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	74	77¢	$57	0xfac479…
10-04 15:06:23	Will Lithuania win on 2026-10-04?	No	SELL	58	100¢	$57	0x126f90…
10-04 11:09:23	Will Lithuania win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	58	73¢	$42	0xd1bc53…
10-02 20:30:35	Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	SELL	315	14¢	$44	0x2acf84…
10-02 16:56:27	Will France win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	BUY	315	69¢	$217	0x91b384…
08-04 10:03:32	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	158	51¢	$81	0x0d53d3…
08-01 06:20:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	158	40¢	$63	0x528ca1…
07-31 16:45:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xa160a0…
07-31 09:54:47	clf koe bsc 2026 07 31 btts	Yes	BUY	62	72¢	$45	0x574d9b…
07-30 14:22:33	Will Tobyl FK win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	BUY	138	72¢	$100	0x133fe7…
07-30 11:07:38	Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	SELL	88	96¢	$84	0xbca0f7…
07-30 09:01:53	Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-07-30?	Yes	BUY	88	73¢	$64	0xf0d0ff…
07-29 14:52:50	Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-07-29?	Yes	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0x3dbd43…
07-27 20:16:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	127	49¢	$62	0x690c2e…
07-27 09:32:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	254	52¢	$131	0x679118…
07-18 18:10:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	659	20¢	$129	0x3d5903…
07-18 15:43:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	165	19¢	$31	0xe34ddc…
07-18 15:18:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	824	21¢	$170	0x9fdbae…
07-18 10:55:37	Will France win on 2026-07-18?	Yes	BUY	1,538	52¢	$800	0x39b305…
07-16 21:17:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	104	98¢	$101	0x520062…
07-16 21:17:07	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	507	1¢	$4	0xbf736a…
07-16 07:16:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x3fb798…
07-15 20:50:37	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	229	55¢	$126	0x5d6dac…
07-15 20:48:50	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	SELL	425	100¢	$425	0xf7f956…
07-15 16:56:13	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	425	53¢	$225	0x911e34…
07-14 18:41:07	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	95	45¢	$43	0xfc1273…
07-14 16:38:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	1,840	13¢	$245	0x46cd41…
07-13 15:07:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	1,840	27¢	$495	0xfb43ef…
07-13 15:06:55	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	SELL	850	60¢	$506	0x49c4eb…
07-13 08:53:32	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x7b1ea1…
07-12 10:46:37	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	833	60¢	$500	0xbf38ef…
07-11 22:56:46	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	935	75¢	$704	0xe3394a…
07-11 22:55:38	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	SELL	715	100¢	$714	0x0f6622…
07-11 18:15:52	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$2	0xe91ef9…
07-11 16:04:16	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	712	62¢	$442	0x9acd04…
07-10 20:52:10	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	111	90¢	$99	0x17026f…
07-10 17:07:14	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x6202d5…
07-10 08:34:52	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	502	60¢	$300	0xdbe8ea…
07-09 20:44:52	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	257	61¢	$158	0xd2d2cf…
07-07 21:53:25	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	247	90¢	$222	0x567301…
07-07 20:55:47	Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	247	43¢	$106	0xdae323…
07-07 20:55:29	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	SELL	315	35¢	$110	0x1c80df…
07-07 20:20:52	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	315	41¢	$129	0x237ad4…
07-07 16:37:20	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	238	25¢	$59	0xa75aa4…
07-06 19:14:46	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals mikel oyarzabal gte1	Yes	BUY	634	46¢	$295	0x783b88…
07-05 22:03:55	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	SELL	367	99¢	$364	0x3eab2f…
07-05 21:52:22	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	367	98¢	$360	0x48b563…
07-05 21:42:47	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	SELL	335	99¢	$332	0x553058…
07-05 21:40:01	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	SELL	84	15¢	$12	0xbfde56…
07-05 21:34:52	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	SELL	147	16¢	$23	0x57ab3f…
07-05 14:39:29	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	567	44¢	$249	0x0e45ff…
07-04 14:29:01	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	324	74¢	$240	0x15fa68…
07-04 14:28:35	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	351	57¢	$200	0xe5f9a1…
07-04 14:28:11	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 goals ismael saibari gte1	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x3738c5…
07-03 22:45:16	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 btts	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xc9e212…
07-03 22:38:29	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x58a027…
07-03 22:33:16	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	SELL	881	100¢	$880	0x016e1d…
07-03 21:17:25	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	414	67¢	$278	0x07705d…
07-03 20:24:53	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	467	68¢	$317	0x17d40d…
07-03 20:20:44	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	SELL	570	57¢	$325	0xc00d07…
07-03 10:10:10	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	231	60¢	$138	0x13ad3a…
07-03 08:57:14	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	339	59¢	$200	0x02e3cb…
07-01 20:40:01	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x310fea…
06-30 16:46:58	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	BUY	242	62¢	$150	0x2ee892…
06-29 19:35:47	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	152	74¢	$112	0xb2f64d…
06-29 07:55:53	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x75a39e…
06-29 07:40:41	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	112	74¢	$83	0xe39993…
06-28 09:20:29	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	169	73¢	$123	0x869b6d…
06-28 09:09:26	Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x758c9a…
06-27 11:41:52	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	278	19¢	$53	0xaa4cc0…
06-23 22:11:49	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	159	68¢	$108	0x8177bd…
06-22 10:16:47	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	284	31¢	$87	0x9ab56e…
06-22 10:10:05	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	473	65¢	$307	0x56309f…
06-22 08:57:02	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	123	41¢	$50	0x23a9eb…
06-21 19:07:26	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	350	44¢	$155	0x3f886f…
06-20 14:09:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0xdf0e83…
06-20 14:08:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	144	15¢	$22	0xe84277…
06-19 19:06:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	144	83¢	$120	0x8b66fe…
06-19 12:52:58	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	194	62¢	$120	0xad89fb…
06-19 12:04:49	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x95d3bf…
06-19 12:03:17	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	281	100¢	$281	0x908067…
06-14 19:37:55	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0xf18b7c…
06-14 13:51:48	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	224	30¢	$67	0xd37708…
06-14 13:47:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	45	26¢	$12	0x297e89…
06-12 08:51:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	45	42¢	$19	0x77f67c…
06-12 05:53:31	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	258	7¢	$19	0xbb5ada…
06-11 10:54:13	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	258	38¢	$99	0x6793c0…
06-11 10:53:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	104	94¢	$99	0xb26faf…
06-09 17:08:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	104	89¢	$93	0x313167…
06-09 10:34:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	345	27¢	$93	0x585b6b…
06-08 12:17:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x5f18bf…