Improbable-Documentary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$935

Hit rate

75.1%

Resolved

143

Trades

2,624

lifetime

Volume

$1.14M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$434

Open exposure

$10.1K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-26 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

59% 38% -$31,474

Politics

38% 61% -$8,618

Tech

2% 80% +$2,311

Sports

1% 57% +$6,326

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-26).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No		+10,000	$8,750	100¢	$10.0K	+$1,235	06-04 01:21
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		+513	$390	18¢	$90	-$300	04-28 22:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	109	$353.9K	353,282	10,584	+342,698	Yes	+$8,910	01-26 22:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	226	$84.0K	73,721	73,721	+0	No	+$3,333	06-19 12:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	122	$67.1K	40,250	33,225	+7,025	No	+$3,062	03-01 12:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	93	$53.1K	66,566	32,131	+34,436	No	-$17,559	06-22 20:35
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	102	$49.8K	85,099	0	+85,099	Yes	+$2,908	02-24 01:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	43	$32.2K	23,784	23,784	+0	No	-$4,231	06-17 10:48
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	72	$18.9K	17,120	6,289	+10,831	Yes	-$9,155	06-14 09:59
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	161	$18.7K	43,782	0	+43,782	Yes	+$3,040	01-24 01:52
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	170	$17.1K	40,427	0	+40,427	No	-$17,101	06-18 17:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	6	$17.1K	18,020	0	+18,020	No	+$965	06-18 17:06
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$16.9K	0	17,027	-17,027	No	-$136	02-05 20:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	29	$16.2K	10,491	9,735	+756	No	+$1,182	06-17 20:35
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	14	$15.1K	16,712	5,000	+11,712	Yes	-$1,978	06-18 16:07
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	22	$14.2K	11,779	7,777	+4,002	Yes	+$2,711	06-14 15:38
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	16	$14.2K	16,269	0	+16,269	No	+$1,631	06-14 07:45
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	70	$13.9K	19,031	3,204	+15,827	Yes	-$9,924	01-30 13:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	44	$13.6K	8,087	8,087	+0	Yes	+$1,155	06-15 22:02
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	26	$13.0K	11,088	4,556	+6,533	No	-$179	06-19 05:47
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	12	$11.3K	47,299	0	+47,299	No	-$394	01-19 03:07
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	8	$10.8K	8,888	5,555	+3,333	Yes	+$1,000	06-14 07:38
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	38	$10.3K	12,461	0	+12,461	Yes	-$314	06-17 14:25
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	44	$10.1K	11,799	8,302	+3,497	Yes	-$815	06-14 14:44
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	123	$9.5K	13,509	1,241	+12,268	No	+$194	02-23 00:56
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	60	$9.1K	7,777	7,777	+0	No	+$378	06-15 16:34
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	13	$8.7K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	06-04 01:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	6	$8.7K	9,461	0	+9,461	No	+$757	05-29 18:52
will trump visit china by march 31	22	$8.5K	8,894	0	+8,894	No	+$371	02-16 07:03
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	5	$8.2K	10,443	2,222	+8,221	Yes	-$613	06-14 08:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	15	$8.2K	9,909	0	+9,909	Yes	+$1,743	05-23 12:16
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	25	$8.2K	11,689	0	+11,689	No	-$4,774	01-22 20:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 11:00:02	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	34	78¢	$26	0xdb1592…
06-26 10:59:53	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0x6a30f2…
06-26 10:56:17	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	129	78¢	$100	0xc1e847…
06-26 10:54:14	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	514	78¢	$400	0xcfbec9…
06-26 10:53:55	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	129	78¢	$100	0xff8654…
06-26 10:53:14	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	385	78¢	$299	0x146e4b…
06-22 22:13:52	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,518	97¢	$4,382	0xa083e1…
06-22 20:35:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	17,229	51¢	$8,787	0x1cadca…
06-22 20:19:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0xc45705…
06-22 20:18:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,000	51¢	$510	0xa3a15c…
06-22 19:59:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x35a688…
06-22 19:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xf9da80…
06-22 19:55:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x7049b5…
06-22 19:44:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	16	51¢	$8	0xeab611…
06-22 19:21:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x00b8b4…
06-22 19:16:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	500	51¢	$255	0xd08de4…
06-22 19:15:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0x2d503a…
06-22 19:12:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x1e36be…
06-22 19:08:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0xc9c236…
06-22 19:07:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	196	51¢	$100	0x77de0f…
06-22 19:03:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xa99e78…
06-22 18:45:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0xbb918e…
06-22 18:42:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0xc1ab51…
06-22 18:41:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0xc6bb69…
06-22 18:38:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0x899cc1…
06-22 18:37:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0xeb5c24…
06-22 18:29:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x7a669b…
06-22 18:24:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x2c99a3…
06-22 18:24:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x9574ad…
06-22 18:03:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	15	51¢	$8	0x844af5…
06-22 17:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xdc8c66…
06-22 17:55:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0xa86cba…
06-22 17:54:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xfc460f…
06-22 17:53:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x8b6f66…
06-22 17:44:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xd5876e…
06-22 17:44:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x336d19…
06-22 17:40:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x8f7131…
06-22 17:38:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x2f63ad…
06-22 17:37:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x339c85…
06-22 17:35:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0x89afb4…
06-22 17:34:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	24	51¢	$12	0xcb19c3…
06-22 17:34:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x0474b3…
06-22 17:34:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xe804a0…
06-22 17:33:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	157	51¢	$80	0x79f294…
06-22 17:24:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x2dadf5…
06-22 17:24:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	150	51¢	$76	0x6ffe85…
06-22 17:22:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xececb2…
06-22 17:22:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0xc2dc48…
06-22 17:22:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x5c0966…
06-22 17:22:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x38178d…
06-22 17:10:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	40	51¢	$20	0xb1f266…
06-22 17:09:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	120	51¢	$61	0x071e65…
06-22 17:08:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x6ab4ba…
06-22 13:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20,000	51¢	$10,200	0x4e8d99…
06-20 15:24:23	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	26	12¢	$3	0x7c1db3…
06-20 15:06:40	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x019285…
06-20 15:06:37	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	570	12¢	$68	0x6829ff…
06-19 12:19:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	33,394	90¢	$30,054	0x39f6ba…
06-19 06:16:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x7a655c…
06-19 06:09:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	52¢	$260	0xe4a229…
06-19 06:06:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	35	52¢	$18	0x950402…
06-19 06:05:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0x3da994…
06-19 06:03:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xc30f90…
06-19 06:02:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	79	88¢	$69	0x62704e…
06-19 06:00:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,450	88¢	$3,036	0x37a94a…
06-19 05:58:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xb9d921…
06-19 05:57:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,360	88¢	$2,077	0x5c34a5…
06-19 05:56:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	58	88¢	$51	0xb9996c…
06-19 05:56:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x4432ba…
06-19 05:55:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb9c468…
06-19 05:52:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x9f3a2a…
06-19 05:51:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0xe9cf49…
06-19 05:51:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0x956e40…
06-19 05:51:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0xb27a2b…
06-19 05:51:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0x76c9d8…
06-19 05:51:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0xdb60f0…
06-19 05:51:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0x353b07…
06-19 05:51:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	58	88¢	$51	0xe14a44…
06-19 05:50:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	124	88¢	$110	0x92a846…
06-19 05:47:38	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	2,420	96¢	$2,316	0xb54045…
06-19 05:47:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	700	95¢	$668	0x4be306…
06-18 17:06:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,315	97¢	$1,274	0x1b1119…
06-18 17:04:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	473	38¢	$180	0xfee6eb…
06-18 16:51:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0xc987e4…
06-18 16:51:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0x975cc3…
06-18 16:51:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0x5470a3…
06-18 16:48:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	484	38¢	$184	0x9fbb11…
06-18 16:39:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	103	38¢	$39	0xec7bad…
06-18 16:39:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	109	38¢	$41	0x5530fb…
06-18 16:34:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	305	38¢	$116	0xf9de1b…
06-18 16:34:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	246	38¢	$93	0xaa4e3b…
06-18 16:34:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	305	38¢	$116	0x6d0cf6…
06-18 16:34:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	113	38¢	$43	0x2f3b1c…
06-18 16:21:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0xe69d48…
06-18 16:19:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	75	38¢	$28	0xed7b7b…
06-18 16:19:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	75	38¢	$28	0xddf218…
06-18 16:19:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	48	38¢	$18	0x3bc134…
06-18 16:10:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	95	38¢	$36	0xe50e78…
06-18 16:10:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	95	38¢	$36	0x869aac…
06-18 16:10:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x3bd9d0…