Novel-Chitchat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$180

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,134

lifetime

Volume

$341.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$302

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 08-12 14:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

95% 100% +$180

Politics

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	126	$80.4K	55,576	27,000	+28,576	open	—	04-17 14:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	63	$59.0K	29,474	30,474	-1,000	open	—	04-11 09:40
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	53	$21.0K	15,062	7,260	+7,802	open	—	07-21 18:23
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	287	$20.7K	12,406	8,406	+4,000	open	—	04-26 03:44
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	16	$18.6K	16,841	1,841	+15,000	No	+$49	05-13 03:55
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	133	$16.0K	9,586	6,576	+3,010	open	—	04-27 08:19
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	87	$13.6K	8,154	6,167	+1,987	Yes	+$71	04-24 15:35
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	28	$11.9K	10,000	2,000	+8,000	open	—	06-16 20:13
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	29	$10.8K	5,464	5,487	-23	No	+$49	04-24 15:55
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	38	$9.9K	10,212	0	+10,212	open	—	08-12 14:07
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?	8	$9.7K	9,765	0	+9,765	open	—	04-29 16:19
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	4	$7.7K	7,775	0	+7,775	open	—	06-15 08:45
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	33	$7.2K	5,852	1,378	+4,473	open	—	04-28 07:53
Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	6	$7.1K	3,600	3,600	+0	open	—	04-03 14:18
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	29	$6.4K	4,384	2,000	+2,384	open	—	04-27 05:42
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	4	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-22 21:54
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	5	$5.0K	3,005	2,000	+1,005	open	—	05-16 18:59
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	1	$4.4K	4,433	0	+4,433	open	—	06-28 22:11
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$4.0K	3,000	1,000	+2,000	No	+$11	05-12 02:07
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	11	$3.7K	3,985	0	+3,985	open	—	08-07 16:18
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	7	$3.1K	5,853	147	+5,706	open	—	06-15 09:09
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	22	$2.5K	3,519	2,465	+1,054	open	—	06-07 12:49
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	12	$2.4K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	04-27 11:26
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	05-26 17:09
will the bank of israel increase the bank of israel interest rate after the march decision	5	$1.9K	1,901	0	+1,901	open	—	03-30 16:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	10	$978	500	500	+0	open	—	05-15 22:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$971	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-26 16:56
Trump out as President before 2027?	9	$900	0	1,000	-1,000	open	—	06-07 19:50
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	12	$838	0	900	-900	open	—	06-13 14:07
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	71	$836	48,217	43,216	+5,001	open	—	04-19 16:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:07:04	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,613	98¢	$1,584	0xc0c8d2…
08-12 08:32:10	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x92d172…
08-12 05:09:42	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	76	98¢	$74	0x6c129b…
08-12 04:31:37	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	101	98¢	$99	0x0af561…
08-12 00:07:45	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x4d44ca…
08-11 20:22:42	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	504	98¢	$495	0x1047d4…
08-11 15:37:49	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	550	98¢	$540	0x331de3…
08-11 14:58:55	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x00fb54…
08-11 09:51:22	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	331	98¢	$325	0x075035…
08-07 16:18:04	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	567	93¢	$529	0x5281ba…
08-07 12:53:22	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x7fcbaf…
08-04 09:26:21	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	245	98¢	$241	0x643c8c…
08-04 09:25:41	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,181	98¢	$2,142	0x0a56e6…
08-03 21:47:17	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x350122…
08-03 21:26:30	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0x1ccfd7…
08-02 22:05:35	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0xd2d18c…
08-02 22:03:56	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x87446a…
08-02 22:00:11	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	119	93¢	$111	0x32d237…
08-02 21:59:18	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,168	94¢	$1,097	0x64d4b4…
08-02 21:58:50	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	318	93¢	$297	0x454bfa…
08-02 04:11:45	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x79bf00…
08-02 03:29:50	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x8ec9f3…
08-01 23:08:14	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	224	93¢	$209	0x2a5ff5…
08-01 14:00:47	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x6fcef7…
07-31 22:11:17	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	102	97¢	$100	0x2fba90…
07-31 20:07:38	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	97¢	$185	0xc8d24b…
07-31 16:31:17	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xaf1d50…
07-31 16:29:21	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$934	0xc708cb…
07-31 16:28:56	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x3ecf4c…
07-30 19:33:29	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0x9fd33c…
07-21 18:23:13	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	472	100¢	$470	0xc141d0…
07-21 14:40:58	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	255	100¢	$254	0x4e5c57…
07-21 14:40:10	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	260	100¢	$259	0x41cdb1…
07-21 14:34:36	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa1430d…
07-20 15:42:58	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2,177	100¢	$2,169	0xaae9db…
07-19 23:21:54	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	192	100¢	$191	0xaea490…
07-19 20:46:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x606d88…
07-19 20:27:19	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	475	100¢	$473	0xafc365…
07-19 20:27:04	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	552	100¢	$550	0x42524b…
07-19 20:26:49	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7ae218…
07-19 20:26:37	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	488	100¢	$486	0x9c5859…
07-19 20:26:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	472	100¢	$470	0x17f25c…
07-19 20:26:28	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xff768d…
07-19 14:57:04	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x2d59ba…
07-19 14:45:33	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x17f499…
07-19 08:38:52	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x846e44…
07-19 08:24:33	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe36016…
07-19 07:09:25	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x6d7ce6…
07-18 14:02:30	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe1892f…
07-15 04:10:22	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x000be9…
07-15 03:34:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xf5b9ac…
07-11 17:49:23	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,988	0x350f19…
07-11 17:48:59	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	613	96¢	$588	0x6c2624…
07-08 02:49:46	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	107	95¢	$102	0x4a571c…
07-08 00:03:31	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$99	0x2d1d31…
07-07 22:01:16	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc1650b…
07-07 19:51:35	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x55f9cd…
07-07 19:50:13	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x331923…
07-07 17:26:20	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	323	95¢	$305	0xdd2f6d…
07-07 05:47:49	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	363	95¢	$343	0x95576a…
07-07 04:38:28	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x9e67b1…
07-06 10:17:26	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	453	95¢	$428	0x737b86…
07-06 09:38:31	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x83089c…
07-05 16:41:25	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	416	95¢	$395	0x60a210…
07-05 16:41:14	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	462	95¢	$438	0xb55f89…
07-05 16:40:20	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xde7419…
07-05 16:39:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x87c250…
07-05 16:39:41	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	214	99¢	$212	0xe7a34a…
07-05 15:47:07	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x7f69f9…
07-05 08:52:26	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2340c6…
07-04 22:35:49	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,065	99¢	$1,053	0xcf9619…
07-04 02:34:37	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0xae0522…
07-04 02:02:29	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	134	99¢	$133	0x75c509…
07-04 01:42:26	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0x482d7e…
07-04 01:23:49	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x0f803a…
07-04 01:19:19	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0x20310f…
07-04 01:05:13	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0xd2eea9…
07-04 00:13:32	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1f0905…
07-03 23:57:55	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x6aea1f…
07-03 23:45:16	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0xe560a5…
06-28 22:11:25	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	BUY	4,433	100¢	$4,429	0x96c5bf…
06-27 19:38:38	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	311	98¢	$306	0x788145…
06-27 19:30:10	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,561	98¢	$1,537	0xbf5522…
06-27 14:39:01	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$296	0x051d86…
06-27 14:38:23	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	572	98¢	$563	0xc26100…
06-27 14:37:35	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,080	98¢	$1,063	0xe22aad…
06-26 21:34:58	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	667	99¢	$657	0x4ee9ba…
06-26 17:04:40	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0893e1…
06-25 19:36:55	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	414	94¢	$390	0x29478d…
06-25 14:50:05	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xcd256b…
06-25 12:42:26	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x5218e9…
06-25 11:34:37	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x934020…
06-25 11:34:20	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$492	0x72d8e4…
06-24 17:51:25	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	450	94¢	$424	0x27cac6…
06-24 15:45:37	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xbcde10…
06-22 21:54:34	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$995	0x0e0cb4…
06-22 02:08:55	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x61da7b…
06-22 02:07:32	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x8a50cf…
06-20 12:48:23	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x566209…
06-16 20:13:22	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,989	99¢	$1,964	0xd163f9…