Hopeful-Bout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

474

lifetime

Volume

$17.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-07 01:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

42% 0% $-1

Other

22% 0% $-25

Politics

21% — —

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No		-15	$-8	32¢	$-5	+$3	06-20 02:01
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes		+0	$1	6¢	$0	$-1	06-17 16:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	2	$1.1K	539	539	+0	open	—	02-04 03:11
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.1K	537	537	+0	open	—	01-31 03:52
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.1K	536	536	+0	open	—	01-30 04:21
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.1K	531	531	+0	open	—	01-29 07:46
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$1.0K	526	526	+0	open	—	01-27 02:21
bitcoin above 70k on february 22	2	$1.0K	517	517	+0	open	—	02-22 10:51
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.0K	512	512	+0	open	—	01-24 02:08
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$1.0K	508	508	+0	No	$-1	02-07 03:54
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	2	$1.0K	504	504	+0	open	—	01-23 06:57
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	2	$1.0K	516	516	+0	open	—	02-09 02:48
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$986	493	493	+0	open	—	02-05 02:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	2	$973	487	487	+0	open	—	02-10 04:11
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	2	$934	467	467	+0	open	—	02-11 04:12
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$920	463	463	+0	open	—	02-23 05:03
will xrp dip to 0pt4 in january 2026	2	$184	92	92	+0	open	—	01-21 04:32
will solana dip to 40 in january 2026	2	$170	85	85	+0	open	—	01-14 04:46
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$166	83	83	-0	open	—	01-22 02:55
will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$166	83	83	+0	open	—	01-15 03:59
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$162	81	81	+0	open	—	01-20 04:10
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 120 139	2	$160	80	80	+0	open	—	01-12 04:52
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 0 19	1	$85	85	0	+85	open	—	01-19 02:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	23	$71	140	94	+46	open	—	06-14 23:56
nba sas mia 2026 03 23	1	$46	70	0	+70	open	—	03-23 02:23
nba det cha 2026 04 10	1	$43	98	0	+98	open	—	04-10 02:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	13	$42	76	92	-17	open	—	06-14 10:20
nba det phx 2026 01 29	1	$38	61	0	+61	open	—	01-29 07:17
nhl mon min 2026 02 02	1	$38	68	0	+68	open	—	02-02 04:04
nba orl cha 2026 03 19	1	$35	56	0	+56	open	—	03-19 02:49
nba bkn den 2026 01 29	1	$34	47	0	+47	open	—	01-29 07:24
nba mia chi 2026 01 29	1	$32	65	0	+65	open	—	01-29 08:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 01:32:58	wnba sea la 2026 07 06	Seattle Storm	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x401b52…
06-20 13:19:35	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x31bb34…
06-20 13:19:11	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x1c50d3…
06-20 13:18:02	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xcf3006…
06-20 13:17:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x440a5d…
06-20 13:16:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0xd7fbf8…
06-20 13:16:29	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x42e865…
06-20 13:10:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0xe37e6d…
06-20 13:09:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0xb028ec…
06-20 13:09:13	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x6f4ba3…
06-20 13:09:02	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	21	19¢	$4	0x624601…
06-20 13:06:25	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x36551f…
06-20 13:04:56	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	SELL	24	36¢	$9	0x5022f3…
06-20 13:03:25	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0xe6e7fa…
06-20 02:02:28	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x827a16…
06-20 02:02:26	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x51b4ac…
06-20 02:02:25	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xf8b8a5…
06-20 02:02:23	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xbcf404…
06-20 02:02:22	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x2da4f8…
06-20 02:02:20	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0xca0d2f…
06-20 02:02:20	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xbeeb29…
06-20 02:02:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x8bd7c6…
06-20 02:02:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0xeaf3b3…
06-20 02:02:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0xe4cc3e…
06-20 02:02:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x2e4052…
06-20 02:01:46	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	37	14¢	$5	0xba3712…
06-20 02:01:41	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xd4e286…
06-20 00:31:19	wnba tor conn 2026 06 19	Toronto Tempo	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x43be1e…
06-20 00:10:14	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	1	56¢	$1	0x11d012…
06-19 23:56:14	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0xefeda9…
06-19 23:44:16	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd8e35e…
06-19 23:44:16	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x91c14b…
06-19 23:21:17	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x919c58…
06-19 23:09:55	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xfc7d82…
06-19 23:09:49	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x8b6ff9…
06-19 22:59:59	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4d1e22…
06-19 22:58:16	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x18fe29…
06-19 22:01:07	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x12381a…
06-19 22:00:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x7a5608…
06-19 20:41:11	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xebd46c…
06-19 20:41:11	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x924b9c…
06-19 19:22:49	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x2e145f…
06-19 18:00:28	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0xd67d46…
06-19 17:49:26	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x675b3f…
06-19 16:07:43	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x007b83…
06-19 09:37:31	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8a46ae…
06-19 09:15:29	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0xaadc31…
06-18 22:45:07	mlb nym phi 2026 06 18 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5dc6df…
06-18 22:45:07	mlb nym phi 2026 06 18 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x3d5833…
06-18 22:22:40	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x89244c…
06-18 21:36:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x4e5b9d…
06-18 21:28:17	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x164e93…
06-18 20:28:46	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x3c0dcc…
06-18 19:56:10	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x802672…
06-18 19:01:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xf5b46c…
06-18 18:49:31	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x94e42b…
06-18 17:28:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2945ea…
06-18 17:17:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x35044e…
06-18 16:52:38	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x4ff9bb…
06-18 14:43:47	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	No	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x2ab0bf…
06-18 14:39:07	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	No	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x5265d1…
06-18 12:35:02	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xa5948e…
06-18 11:42:59	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x156245…
06-18 11:33:32	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	No	BUY	0	58¢	$0	0x2a28b9…
06-18 07:38:44	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xdc369e…
06-18 00:48:34	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x828eec…
06-17 23:20:50	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x0ea814…
06-17 23:09:16	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xc2e870…
06-17 22:47:11	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0xf60587…
06-17 22:47:11	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xe4561a…
06-17 22:47:11	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xd99c1d…
06-17 22:47:11	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x288a16…
06-17 22:24:08	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x85a31f…
06-17 17:55:44	will mojtaba khamenei attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204736	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd9970d…
06-17 17:02:41	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x317d80…
06-17 16:57:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	8¢	$4	0x340c08…
06-17 15:52:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x15a043…
06-17 15:28:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x5439dd…
06-17 15:24:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xbf199b…
06-17 15:11:53	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x761435…
06-17 09:28:10	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x7660ae…
06-17 09:17:14	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x83fd0f…
06-17 09:16:52	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x6a7d9f…
06-17 08:42:37	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xad38b8…
06-17 07:27:58	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x0e8165…
06-17 06:33:46	will shehbaz sharif attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204725	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xccdde4…
06-17 03:58:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x3d58f9…
06-17 00:12:40	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0xf03f65…
06-17 00:01:19	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd9a463…
06-16 23:06:23	wnba tor ind 2026 06 16	Indiana Fever	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6fd481…
06-16 19:27:41	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x94e45f…
06-16 17:18:58	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x14fec7…
06-16 16:57:35	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xef7a86…
06-16 14:40:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x448809…
06-16 11:22:22	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xd6a391…
06-16 10:28:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x4f70a3…
06-16 10:18:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x621aed…
06-16 08:54:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xda26b0…
06-16 08:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x583656…
06-16 08:47:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x540930…