Improbable-Workbench — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.2%

Resolved

706

Trades

5,291

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 05-13 18:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

43% — —

Sports

26% 0% —

Crypto

25% 72% $-9

Politics

6% 0% $-0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 1284 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
epl new sun 2026 03 22 new	201	$595	755	632	+124	open	—	03-22 13:47
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	121	$544	295	295	+0	open	—	03-25 20:03
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20	85	$377	260	271	-11	open	—	03-21 00:56
nhl tb edm 2026 03 21	223	$356	964	753	+211	open	—	03-22 04:31
lal cel ala 2026 03 22 cel	101	$336	252	239	+13	open	—	03-22 16:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	70	$330	180	180	+0	open	—	03-25 20:04
mlb tex bal 2026 03 30	170	$294	481	481	+0	open	—	03-31 01:04
nba sas gsw 2026 04 01 spread away 12pt5	74	$242	169	180	-12	open	—	04-02 04:19
mlb nym stl 2026 04 01 spread away 1pt5	70	$230	159	227	-69	open	—	04-01 20:23
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22 total 147pt5	95	$230	208	208	+0	open	—	03-22 17:12
cbb okl col 2026 04 01	56	$226	132	152	-20	open	—	04-02 02:44
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	61	$222	169	174	-5	open	—	03-30 19:25
cbb tx gnzg 2026 03 21	120	$213	370	364	+6	open	—	03-22 00:57
lal osa gir 2026 03 21 osa	89	$206	217	250	-33	open	—	03-21 19:45
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	46	$195	110	110	+0	open	—	03-25 20:04
nba cle uta 2026 03 30 spread away 16pt5	68	$169	187	178	+8	open	—	03-31 02:40
epl ast wes 2026 03 22 ast	66	$164	219	219	+0	open	—	03-22 16:30
nhl nsh chi 2026 03 22	57	$161	157	157	+0	open	—	03-22 21:43
cbb mia pur 2026 03 22 spread home 7pt5	62	$161	150	150	+0	open	—	03-22 20:28
nba mia hou 2026 03 21	64	$158	154	154	+0	open	—	03-22 00:57
cbb utahst vill 2026 03 20	32	$151	138	137	+1	open	—	03-20 22:23
fif cyp mol 2026 03 30 cyp	30	$136	116	116	+0	open	—	03-30 17:50
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	35	$134	100	105	-5	open	—	03-24 05:02
cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22	32	$131	90	85	+5	open	—	03-23 00:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	27	$129	65	100	-35	open	—	04-01 19:07
nba nyk okc 2026 03 29 spread home 8pt5	26	$125	121	121	+0	open	—	03-29 22:41
mlb laa chc 2026 03 31 spread home 1pt5	32	$121	76	117	-41	open	—	04-01 00:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	24	$119	86	86	+0	open	—	03-29 18:24
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	26	$102	70	70	+0	open	—	03-23 11:12
nba orl tor 2026 03 29 spread home 1pt5	22	$95	107	103	+4	open	—	03-29 22:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 18:55:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x94fba8…
05-13 17:57:02	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4d3ded…
05-13 17:12:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xdbf61c…
05-13 16:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x3c1bd7…
05-13 16:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xec717b…
05-13 14:44:15	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xfbd71f…
05-13 14:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x19cdb7…
05-13 14:41:04	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xe25c0e…
05-13 14:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xf360ce…
05-13 10:56:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x34e1ba…
05-13 08:27:14	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xc8fafb…
05-13 07:59:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x4f996f…
05-13 07:56:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x3f8261…
05-13 07:28:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x33f5ab…
05-13 07:25:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5ebfaa…
05-13 06:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x2ba5cc…
05-13 06:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf7b6df…
05-13 06:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xd7a774…
05-13 05:55:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xac32f8…
05-13 05:29:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4280b1…
05-13 05:25:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf91950…
05-13 05:11:42	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x0ed7c5…
05-13 05:10:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x5598dc…
05-13 05:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x6e03c4…
05-13 04:58:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xac3c27…
05-13 04:56:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0xd55603…
05-13 04:40:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x8e4039…
05-13 03:28:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8d706b…
05-13 03:25:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0xa7b6f5…
05-13 02:56:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x55bc22…
05-13 02:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8f575a…
05-13 01:55:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x0d02d0…
05-13 00:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x8fb0ea…
05-13 00:55:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x72950c…
05-13 00:55:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe0b59d…
05-13 00:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x8f685b…
05-13 00:40:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x77be1b…
05-12 22:10:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xf1f706…
05-12 21:56:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x6c9b84…
05-12 21:56:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb91e5c…
05-12 21:40:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x1421fb…
05-12 21:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x84bdce…
05-12 20:56:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x854666…
05-12 20:40:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x6ea3dd…
05-12 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xbeca3f…
05-12 18:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd9a933…
05-12 17:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0f2bbc…
05-12 16:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9af232…
05-12 14:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x7bc869…
05-12 14:26:16	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x29a094…
05-12 14:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x53cf61…
05-12 11:40:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xa5aeb3…
05-12 11:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa7e40e…
05-12 10:12:17	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xe609d9…
05-12 09:27:03	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x3c5288…
05-12 09:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x120986…
05-12 09:10:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x6f3dea…
05-12 08:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd05307…
05-12 08:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x01f29c…
05-12 08:24:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xbb012c…
05-12 07:58:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0xc5b457…
05-12 07:55:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe15bf4…
05-12 07:13:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x16f52a…
05-12 07:10:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x7877fd…
05-12 06:56:03	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x62b0dd…
05-12 06:55:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0xbb9d2b…
05-12 06:40:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x47ff19…
05-12 06:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x1d65e6…
05-12 05:40:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x39a709…
05-12 05:25:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3a3c84…
05-12 04:41:07	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xce3bba…
05-12 04:40:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x0b9358…
05-12 04:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x280064…
05-12 03:28:56	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x086569…
05-12 03:28:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x7c6112…
05-12 03:26:17	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$1	0x566fb4…
05-12 03:25:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x56be95…
05-12 03:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xe62bfb…
05-12 02:43:54	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5f127c…
05-12 02:41:18	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x766ea2…
05-12 02:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x50a041…
05-12 02:14:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0297d9…
05-12 02:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x36c483…
05-12 02:10:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0xd8bf71…
05-12 02:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$1	0xa2c577…
05-12 01:55:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xcc3bfc…
05-12 01:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x2eb1b2…
05-12 01:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5e8e27…
05-12 00:54:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1e2614…
05-12 00:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x5d6d34…
05-12 00:10:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xbe72c8…
05-11 23:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xaa4f23…
05-11 23:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe4434e…
05-11 23:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xfc7339…
05-11 22:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x52ce9b…
05-11 22:25:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x9ff55a…
05-11 21:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x0f8bb4…
05-11 21:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5d6450…
05-11 21:25:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x6d8950…
05-11 20:43:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x331d53…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Periodic-Setback 0x8e84…cb71	654	$1.03K	2,393	05-13 16:59
(anonymous) 0xd44e…b15e	650	$179.6K	67,835	05-13 16:59
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	643	$42.9K	8,868	05-13 16:58
(anonymous) 0x912a…0f92	640	$83.4K	17,802	05-13 16:59
(anonymous) 0x4336…e51c	640	$758	2,981	05-13 16:59
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	622	$168.0K	11,676	05-13 16:58
Minty-Complicity 0xee55…7b04	619	$271.0K	64,472	05-13 16:59
Upbeat-Necktie 0x48ea…3e30	603	$257.7K	46,355	05-13 14:38