Live-Hacienda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

3,813

lifetime

Volume

$118.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$92

1 position

First seen

2026-03-08

last 06-10 18:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

87% — —

Politics

10% 67% +$6

Other

3% 60% +$23

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 706 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No		+100	$93	92¢	$92	$-1	06-10 14:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1775604300	3	$2.4K	1,251	1,243	+8	open	—	04-07 23:28
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	15	$2.0K	1,210	1,310	-100	open	—	04-13 21:47
btc updown 5m 1775233500	3	$1.9K	967	953	+14	open	—	04-03 16:29
btc updown 5m 1775602800	5	$1.4K	723	721	+2	open	—	04-07 23:04
btc updown 5m 1775606400	2	$1.4K	1,403	0	+1,403	open	—	04-08 00:04
btc updown 5m 1775607000	2	$1.3K	732	722	+9	open	—	04-08 00:14
btc updown 5m 1775606100	2	$1.3K	1,356	0	+1,356	open	—	04-07 23:59
btc updown 5m 1774571400	5	$1.3K	1,592	1,571	+20	open	—	03-27 00:32
btc updown 5m 1775604900	2	$1.2K	648	644	+3	open	—	04-07 23:39
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	15	$1.2K	1,261	1,261	+0	open	—	06-08 18:06
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	24	$1.2K	2,178	1,716	+461	open	—	05-23 18:57
btc updown 5m 1774660500	7	$1.1K	575	575	+0	open	—	03-28 01:21
btc updown 5m 1775853300	6	$984	506	505	+2	open	—	04-10 20:41
btc updown 5m 1774627800	2	$959	487	487	+0	open	—	03-27 16:14
btc updown 5m 1775605200	19	$947	502	502	+0	open	—	04-07 23:44
btc updown 5m 1774612200	4	$946	585	583	+2	open	—	03-27 11:54
btc updown 5m 1774638300	2	$943	483	483	+0	open	—	03-27 19:10
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	10	$900	500	500	+0	open	—	04-23 03:18
btc updown 5m 1774822200	2	$862	435	435	+0	open	—	03-29 22:14
btc updown 5m 1774892700	2	$851	430	429	+1	open	—	03-30 17:50
btc updown 5m 1774560300	7	$824	793	789	+4	open	—	03-26 21:29
btc updown 5m 1775166600	9	$794	402	402	+0	open	—	04-02 21:54
btc updown 5m 1774897200	6	$764	388	388	+0	open	—	03-30 19:07
btc updown 5m 1774807800	4	$763	390	390	+0	open	—	03-29 18:14
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?	4	$759	713	100	+613	open	—	04-08 09:33
btc updown 5m 1775603100	1	$699	711	0	+711	open	—	04-07 23:09
btc updown 5m 1774626000	5	$695	466	464	+2	open	—	03-27 15:44
btc updown 5m 1775852100	4	$686	698	100	+598	open	—	04-10 20:19
btc updown 5m 1774561200	8	$677	541	536	+5	open	—	03-26 21:45
btc updown 5m 1774802100	5	$673	344	344	+0	open	—	03-29 16:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 18:32:58	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x16962a…
06-10 18:27:24	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0xfd55a1…
06-10 14:02:01	Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x2c9c82…
06-10 00:07:40	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xca9ce7…
06-09 22:19:57	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	170	95¢	$161	0xaa4a8f…
06-09 22:14:49	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6c5b9f…
06-09 22:14:46	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	29	95¢	$27	0x7b42ce…
06-09 22:14:43	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x0512df…
06-09 22:13:52	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x1c97a0…
06-09 22:12:07	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x87ab93…
06-09 22:08:22	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	175	97¢	$170	0x6e8b77…
06-08 18:06:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	400	15¢	$60	0x8a4980…
06-08 10:35:42	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xda439e…
06-08 10:14:07	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x537d96…
06-08 03:15:48	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xbd3002…
06-08 03:03:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x8fcfab…
06-08 03:03:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	295	70¢	$206	0x5d403c…
06-08 03:02:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	530	65¢	$344	0xe38835…
06-08 03:02:37	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	170	65¢	$111	0xe399ab…
06-07 20:39:40	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x39ad6c…
06-07 20:19:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xdd5a9c…
06-07 20:12:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xfd0653…
06-07 20:12:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xbf79c1…
06-07 20:01:13	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	96	33¢	$32	0x856b34…
06-07 20:01:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x26e08d…
06-07 20:01:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x4db54c…
06-07 19:50:13	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	SELL	98	90¢	$88	0xc5aaab…
06-07 19:47:55	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xb8c562…
06-07 19:26:12	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xa80c8c…
06-07 19:25:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x845726…
06-07 19:24:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x9eedb9…
06-07 19:24:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x019394…
06-07 19:16:28	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	161	80¢	$129	0x50617d…
06-07 19:15:21	nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xfc8825…
06-07 19:14:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xe64ce8…
05-23 18:57:45	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0xafb922…
05-21 11:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	117	90¢	$105	0xf73d24…
05-21 11:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0xe18124…
05-21 11:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x9e97be…
05-21 11:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0x89d017…
05-20 21:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x79b82e…
05-20 19:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x334308…
05-20 19:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0xb6b532…
05-20 19:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xd946bd…
05-20 19:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x194b15…
05-20 19:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0x1edb0f…
05-20 19:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x460090…
05-20 19:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	63	90¢	$57	0x8a8d16…
05-20 19:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	97	90¢	$87	0x8cc7e3…
05-20 19:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x1dc630…
05-20 19:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x808353…
05-20 18:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x0a7718…
05-20 18:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf579c2…
05-20 18:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x1fcfd0…
05-20 18:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xfd6614…
05-20 18:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	56	90¢	$51	0xf14ddf…
05-20 18:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xa2defe…
05-20 18:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x252777…
05-20 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x8a2db5…
05-20 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	63	92¢	$58	0x356014…
05-20 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	92¢	$27	0x012d43…
05-20 18:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x11ccdd…
05-20 18:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0xeddba6…
05-20 18:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$6	0x802a31…
05-20 18:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0x6d52e3…
05-20 18:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x61906b…
05-20 18:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0x202d42…
05-20 17:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x6750ac…
05-20 17:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x08e662…
05-20 17:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x839d17…
05-20 17:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xf77302…
05-20 17:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x765f10…
05-20 17:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x50b91a…
05-20 17:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xbc28b9…
05-20 17:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x507bf2…
05-20 17:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xceaff8…
05-20 17:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xccc4aa…
05-20 17:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd9570d…
05-20 17:29:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x9881d5…
05-20 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf95458…
05-20 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0xb9338c…
05-20 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x64f866…
05-20 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x501522…
05-20 17:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x2270bc…
05-20 10:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x59410d…
05-19 19:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xe0d09d…
05-19 19:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	45	95¢	$43	0x742cd9…
05-19 19:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0x23ea67…
05-18 07:13:09	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	277	20¢	$55	0x71f543…
05-18 06:52:13	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	222	20¢	$44	0xa199a4…
05-18 06:25:23	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xdee5f6…
05-17 22:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x7f896a…
05-17 22:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb72925…
05-17 22:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x959a3e…
05-17 22:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd2b9c8…
05-17 22:01:00	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,255	28¢	$352	0xba86f7…
05-13 19:50:58	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x887d86…
05-12 20:04:13	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	68	20¢	$14	0xa8e5f9…
05-12 06:01:13	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x32f35d…
05-11 23:02:07	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	156	20¢	$31	0xb9e4fd…