Live-Hacienda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.19K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.30K

Hit rate

78.0%

Resolved

1,401

Trades

5,387

lifetime

Volume

$275.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$564

1 position

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-26 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 74% -$4,522

Politics

6% 65% +$379

Other

4% 55% -$86

Sports

1% 91% +$56

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+4,900	$3,868	12¢	$564	-$3,304	07-16 14:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:25 UTC	27	$7.1K	6,937	3,005	+3,931	Down	-$3,854	06-17 19:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:00 UTC	6	$4.2K	4,354	371	+3,982	Down	+$6	06-17 19:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 19:50 UTC	34	$4.1K	2,100	2,100	+0	Down	+$51	06-16 19:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	6	$3.9K	4,900	0	+4,900	open	—	07-16 14:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 18:35 UTC	54	$3.5K	1,916	1,916	+0	Up	+$62	06-17 18:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 17:55 UTC	45	$3.0K	3,150	135	+3,015	Down	+$229	06-17 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:10 UTC	3	$2.7K	2,335	788	+1,547	Up	+$77	06-17 19:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 21:10 UTC	12	$2.5K	1,392	1,392	+0	Down	-$29	06-16 21:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 23:25 UTC	3	$2.4K	1,251	1,243	+8	Up	+$97	04-07 23:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	8	$2.1K	1,350	1,800	-450	No	-$37	06-26 13:41
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	15	$2.0K	1,210	1,310	-100	Yes	+$488	04-13 21:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:50 UTC	5	$2.0K	2,077	1,173	+904	Up	+$120	06-16 17:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 18:30 UTC	1	$1.9K	1,919	0	+1,919	Down	+$19	06-17 18:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 19:15 UTC	24	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Down	+$0	06-16 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:25 UTC	3	$1.9K	967	953	+14	Up	+$9	04-03 16:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 18:15 UTC	11	$1.9K	1,041	1,041	+0	Down	+$10	06-16 18:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 17:35 UTC	8	$1.8K	2,079	2,079	+0	Down	-$705	06-17 17:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 18:45 UTC	4	$1.8K	1,890	0	+1,890	Up	+$74	06-16 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 17:40 UTC	7	$1.8K	4,126	4,126	+0	Down	-$484	06-17 17:43
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	5	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$70	06-21 19:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 06:05 UTC	2	$1.7K	900	900	+0	Down	+$81	06-18 06:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 17:05 UTC	4	$1.7K	1,356	1,356	+0	Up	-$734	06-17 17:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 18:50 UTC	3	$1.6K	1,632	959	+674	Down	-$288	06-17 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 20:45 UTC	2	$1.6K	822	822	+0	Down	+$21	06-16 21:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:05 UTC	4	$1.6K	1,783	569	+1,215	Down	+$171	06-17 19:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 17:30 UTC	6	$1.5K	1,552	743	+809	Down	-$362	06-17 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 22:45 UTC	4	$1.5K	1,245	245	+1,000	Up	+$33	06-17 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 23:00 UTC	5	$1.4K	723	721	+2	Down	+$5	04-07 23:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:30 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,176	1,176	+0	Up	-$5	06-16 17:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-08 00:00 UTC	2	$1.4K	1,403	0	+1,403	Down	+$50	04-08 00:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:31:14	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x9ce294…
10-25 23:47:30	Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xd3de70…
10-25 23:40:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0xe44e61…
10-25 23:36:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	94¢	$283	0x9faf53…
10-25 23:33:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	52	94¢	$49	0x752b76…
10-25 23:33:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	148	94¢	$139	0x2df417…
10-25 23:32:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x33ab89…
10-25 23:31:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x30deab…
10-25 23:29:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	91	94¢	$85	0x5c2a52…
10-25 23:29:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$9	0x28a921…
08-13 13:13:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 13:10 UTC	Down	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x76baf2…
08-13 13:11:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x7bef3a…
08-13 13:06:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 13:05 UTC	Up	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0xf23f62…
08-13 13:05:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x16bea4…
07-22 18:57:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x29af88…
07-22 18:57:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	295	95¢	$280	0x2ad2e0…
07-22 18:56:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$25	0x603a8e…
07-22 18:53:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x944a6a…
07-22 18:52:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	272	97¢	$262	0x3ae2b9…
07-21 21:16:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x506d03…
07-21 21:16:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x47d3a5…
07-16 14:18:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x619575…
07-05 22:01:38	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	Yes	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0x708826…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	75¢	$1,500	0x0da0dc…
07-04 10:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	313	80¢	$251	0xc0ff25…
07-04 10:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	687	80¢	$549	0x855c6c…
07-04 04:03:59	Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x50f189…
07-03 23:44:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 23:40 UTC	Down	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0xb5cb04…
07-03 23:43:29	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xa04f38…
07-03 22:07:26	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x707939…
07-03 19:39:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x6b1bc2…
07-03 19:39:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x203add…
07-03 19:24:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb0df81…
07-03 19:24:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x776dcd…
07-03 19:24:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x55d2c7…
07-03 19:24:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x312b9b…
07-03 19:24:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-03 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x16e1fd…
07-01 22:24:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x5c7835…
07-01 20:51:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x89a590…
07-01 20:48:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x26e8bd…
07-01 20:44:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x10d2f8…
06-28 04:34:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0xe1f52e…
06-27 05:04:05	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	145	98¢	$143	0xb85c93…
06-27 05:03:58	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xecb99e…
06-27 05:03:58	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x9f86ff…
06-26 23:55:26	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x589b26…
06-26 21:36:43	Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0xfc469a…
06-26 21:34:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x6f20f3…
06-26 21:25:11	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x209cad…
06-26 21:24:40	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	327	98¢	$321	0x7543ec…
06-26 21:14:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x70ae1d…
06-26 21:04:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x64153e…
06-26 21:03:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x5a5ee6…
06-26 20:59:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xf0c27c…
06-26 20:54:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x7dee4e…
06-26 20:54:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 20:50 UTC	Up	SELL	44	36¢	$16	0x1916ef…
06-26 20:53:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x592f3b…
06-26 20:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,400	87¢	$1,218	0x87ea08…
06-26 20:29:16	Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	612	98¢	$600	0x1f6869…
06-26 13:41:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,100	90¢	$991	0xac0001…
06-26 04:26:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	387	85¢	$329	0xc04e6a…
06-26 04:26:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$11	0x40a969…
06-26 04:26:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x031b90…
06-25 10:37:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xf29ead…
06-24 20:19:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x778fc8…
06-24 20:19:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xd9fec6…
06-24 20:19:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5f3c09…
06-24 20:14:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0x69b366…
06-24 20:06:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x87bbd9…
06-24 20:06:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x504388…
06-24 20:06:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x475354…
06-24 20:06:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xab66ef…
06-24 20:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x3086c9…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe7892b…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xd4991a…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x93849b…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x8d0c98…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3896b6…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x3219a0…
06-24 20:02:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x0e8e19…
06-24 20:02:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x788b65…
06-24 20:02:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3c46a1…
06-24 19:51:16	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x1bff51…
06-24 19:50:56	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x93f865…
06-24 18:59:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x2cd18f…
06-24 18:59:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:55 UTC	Up	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x7a5a80…
06-24 18:59:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x4ea68f…
06-24 15:44:47	Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	75	0¢	$0	0x178046…
06-23 21:57:04	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xe1fd38…
06-23 21:53:56	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa24263…
06-23 21:53:20	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	14	74¢	$11	0xa0dba8…
06-23 21:51:28	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa42b4e…
06-23 20:14:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xad4fe7…
06-23 20:13:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xc70403…
06-23 20:13:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x94a996…
06-23 20:09:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xdc9f5a…
06-23 20:09:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xab43ef…
06-23 20:08:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x620dfc…
06-23 18:59:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xc538fe…
06-23 18:54:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x1a797e…