Gifted-Quill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$118

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$1.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-02-08

last 10-12 11:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 58% -$138

Other

24% 59% +$12

Politics

24% 92% +$16

Tech

1% 0% -$2

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes		-16	-$10	81¢	$-13	-$3	05-06 01:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 16:15 UTC	9	$126	80	74	+6	Up	+$1	02-09 16:27
nothing ever happens crypto edition 319	2	$107	704	704	+0	Yes	-$46	02-09 16:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$101	485	485	+0	Yes	+$1	03-01 05:57
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$69	36	36	+0	Yes	+$0	02-14 20:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$51	56	56	+0	No	+$11	04-13 19:37
will trump say n word in february	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$1	02-28 10:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:30 UTC	3	$44	50	20	+30	Down	-$15	02-08 14:41
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$43	23	23	+0	Yes	+$3	03-30 17:16
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	3	$32	29	29	+0	70k	+$2	05-18 04:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 16:30 UTC	1	$32	38	0	+38	Up	-$32	02-09 16:35
pltr up or down on april 13 2026	3	$30	21	21	+0	Up	+$11	04-13 19:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 15:00 UTC	3	$25	55	0	+55	Up	+$0	02-08 15:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$24	15	15	+0	No	+$5	04-24 21:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 15:15 UTC	2	$24	50	0	+50	Down	+$1	02-08 15:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:45 UTC	2	$24	50	0	+50	Up	+$1	02-08 14:46
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	3	$23	20	12	+8	Vitality	+$1	05-03 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$23	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	05-19 18:14
will trump say microcosm in february	2	$22	12	12	+0	No	+$2	02-28 10:19
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 28	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	03-01 06:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	03-01 05:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 11:30 UTC	1	$21	24	0	+24	Up	+$3	02-08 11:41
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	2	$19	12	12	+0	No	+$2	04-29 03:55
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$18	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	04-06 05:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$18	14	14	+0	Yes	+$8	05-01 20:44
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$17	20	0	+20	No	+$3	03-02 12:21
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	03-01 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$15	519	0	+519	Down	-$15	05-19 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$15	519	0	+519	Up	-$10	05-18 20:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:15 UTC	2	$14	30	0	+30	Down	+$1	02-08 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	3	$14	65	15	+50	Up	+$2	05-19 18:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 11:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9c2859…
10-12 11:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	33¢	$1	0x9a9fea…
10-12 11:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x327649…
10-12 11:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x1d44c6…
10-12 11:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb74068…
10-12 10:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x231b1f…
05-19 18:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xb42565…
05-19 18:26:43	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x25aba8…
05-19 18:26:36	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0xb8ea2b…
05-19 18:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x7a190b…
05-19 18:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xb5012d…
05-19 18:19:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc96cec…
05-19 18:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	15	49¢	$8	0xd66b0c…
05-19 18:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x6905f3…
05-19 18:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	20	62¢	$13	0xc42b6e…
05-19 18:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x89e26c…
05-19 18:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x179d94…
05-19 18:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xd81d46…
05-19 18:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x83a040…
05-19 18:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xcfa670…
05-18 20:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x054335…
05-18 20:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x451bf2…
05-18 20:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x20fbbb…
05-18 20:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0x3cb5e6…
05-18 20:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xa6e137…
05-18 19:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x6bc957…
05-18 19:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x3b53a4…
05-18 19:52:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2120b7…
05-18 04:15:42	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc142e2…
05-18 04:13:45	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	29	60¢	$17	0x371e1e…
05-17 19:57:25	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x817bbd…
05-16 20:20:11	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Tundra Esports	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xde92cd…
05-15 20:42:08	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd2d210…
05-13 20:56:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x3fc1ff…
05-12 04:58:37	Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2ac18a…
05-10 12:28:36	Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xeee57b…
05-10 12:24:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	81¢	$10	0xb02fa0…
05-10 04:34:49	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0x76e4f9…
05-08 00:59:36	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x743eea…
05-06 20:24:43	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcd86f2…
05-06 20:22:32	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x46889a…
05-06 20:22:30	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe8154c…
05-06 16:04:56	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	17	24¢	$4	0x212c49…
05-06 01:50:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xc44609…
05-06 01:46:56	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	16	63¢	$10	0x5e655a…
05-05 17:30:18	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x612f76…
05-05 17:22:06	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x8bb8b8…
05-04 20:30:24	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x5b78d1…
05-04 20:29:36	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x2e2f10…
05-04 20:20:32	Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x4fe4a1…
05-04 04:18:26	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0xd79d55…
05-03 20:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x7e3b65…
05-03 20:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x602c2c…
05-03 20:30:34	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Vitality	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x376004…
05-03 19:15:36	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xad5d3e…
05-03 17:20:02	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Vitality	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x8608ff…
05-02 11:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x99c2c0…
05-02 11:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xcbee2d…
05-02 11:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x18b0fe…
05-02 11:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xca9045…
05-02 11:27:26	Chirayu Rana sued?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc36a01…
05-02 11:24:12	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x9095e4…
05-02 05:14:24	Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x517407…
05-02 05:12:02	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x42c5b7…
05-02 05:11:48	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3c3688…
05-01 20:44:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x93f2c0…
05-01 17:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0x8a53be…
05-01 17:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xc26c25…
05-01 17:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xcf7489…
04-30 20:25:38	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x0010bc…
04-29 15:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x9c4d7c…
04-29 15:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xb5ca9a…
04-29 15:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xfe545b…
04-29 15:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xdcd236…
04-29 15:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x09c0c1…
04-29 15:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x2e0e77…
04-29 14:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe797cc…
04-29 14:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf54cf1…
04-29 03:57:18	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x7e1718…
04-29 03:57:04	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xef42ee…
04-29 03:55:50	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0x389b33…
04-25 21:00:08	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0x39159a…
04-25 20:57:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7e2f9c…
04-25 20:55:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x184e6c…
04-24 21:47:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x84cf8d…
04-18 06:33:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	15	62¢	$9	0xd9b06a…
04-17 06:07:16	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x9d990e…
04-14 20:55:04	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xa9beb1…
04-14 04:10:03	nflx up or down on april 13 2026	Down	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x75a97e…
04-13 19:48:07	nflx up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x4312fa…
04-13 19:38:51	pltr up or down on april 13 2026	Up	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xb9e6c5…
04-13 19:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	26	45¢	$12	0x45dfac…
04-13 08:34:59	pltr up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x45df9c…
04-12 21:01:23	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xfb5031…
04-12 20:53:17	pltr up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	12	28¢	$3	0xd99ece…
04-12 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x96f9da…
04-12 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x875b10…
04-12 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x81f79a…
04-12 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x58c8ea…
04-12 20:49:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x231635…