Stimulating-Outset — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.55K

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

54.5%

Resolved

3,943

Trades

11,010

lifetime

Volume

$233.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$277

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-11 17:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 264 days

Categories

Other

99% 53% +$6,931

Crypto

1% 20% -$387

Sports

0% 25% -$19

Politics

0% 50% +$21

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 136 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-183	-$174	97¢	$-177	-$3	10-05 22:38
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	-71	-$36	88¢	$-63	-$27	08-03 18:54
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	-100	-$40	38¢	$-38	+$2	07-29 00:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	6	$584	390	389	+1	Yes	+$141	04-25 14:52
Spread: England (-2.5)	14	$484	340	340	+0	England	+$183	06-10 23:01
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	3	$436	333	333	+0	Yes	+$34	09-09 13:52
lal bar ovi 2026 01 25 bar	2	$421	242	242	+0	Yes	+$63	01-25 18:28
tur riz gal 2026 02 08 total 2pt5	3	$397	247	247	+0	Over	+$97	02-08 19:09
fl1 rcl hac 2026 01 30 rcl	3	$396	245	245	+0	Yes	+$74	01-30 21:11
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$393	550	550	+0	Yes	-$7	09-09 13:52
Juventus FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5	8	$362	380	380	+0	Over	+$18	09-06 20:14
laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	4	$360	812	812	+0	No	-$80	09-09 13:52
ucl new fcb1 2026 03 10 total 1pt5	9	$346	700	0	+700	Over	+$354	03-10 21:22
bun stu lei 2026 03 15 total 1pt5	10	$339	600	0	+600	Under	-$339	03-15 19:45
lal vil rso 2026 03 20 spread home 2pt5	3	$323	206	206	+0	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	+$64	03-20 21:56
sea cag lec 2026 02 16 total 1pt5	4	$301	291	291	+0	Over	-$5	02-16 21:10
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	2	$283	223	223	+0	Yes	+$51	07-04 18:34
tur fen bes 2026 04 05 total 1pt5	2	$277	550	0	+550	Under	-$277	04-05 18:14
bun stu dor 2026 04 04 total 1pt5	14	$267	600	0	+600	Over	+$333	04-04 18:02
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5)	7	$261	180	180	+0	Kosovo	+$63	06-07 19:31
fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 total 1pt5	7	$260	500	0	+500	Under	-$260	06-21 01:18
col sio aja 2026 08 20 total 2pt5	6	$255	450	0	+450	Over	+$195	08-20 19:24
epl ful bur 2026 03 21 ful	2	$255	168	168	+0	Yes	+$47	03-21 16:48
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$252	200	200	+0	Yes	-$12	05-18 19:46
sea bol udi 2026 02 23 total 1pt5	5	$251	261	261	+0	Under	-$21	02-23 21:20
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	9	$241	180	180	+0	Yes	+$69	04-19 17:15
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2026-08-16?	8	$241	197	197	+0	No	+$76	08-16 12:34
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5	17	$240	460	0	+460	Under	-$240	05-10 13:49
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	4	$239	179	179	+0	Yes	+$39	06-30 18:37
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5	3	$238	500	0	+500	Over	+$262	08-23 16:17
FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5	6	$238	400	0	+400	Under	-$238	09-05 17:43
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$233	151	151	+0	Yes	+$33	07-06 21:05
Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	8	$232	450	0	+450	Over	+$218	09-25 11:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 17:13:51	US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	36	49¢	$18	0xbddf6e…
10-11 11:04:18	FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Karpaty Lviv: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	41	45¢	$19	0xaf087a…
10-11 11:04:17	FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. FK Karpaty Lviv: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x118586…
10-11 11:01:45	Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x091ccc…
10-11 11:01:41	Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	58	50¢	$29	0x9a5793…
10-11 10:56:45	Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	65	50¢	$32	0x5a2654…
10-10 19:54:07	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	36	58¢	$21	0x3cf5ee…
10-10 19:54:06	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	23	58¢	$13	0xcb92e8…
10-10 17:45:31	RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa8257c…
10-10 17:45:30	RB Leipzig vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	78	51¢	$40	0x381361…
10-10 13:19:54	Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Amed Sportif: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x031733…
10-10 12:08:00	VfL Osnabrück vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0xdf72e9…
10-10 12:07:13	VfL Osnabrück vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x46cac1…
10-10 12:06:58	VfL Osnabrück vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	48	48¢	$23	0x902c55…
10-10 10:45:30	Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Amed Sportif: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	60	40¢	$24	0x2b6420…
10-06 18:55:02	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	35	60¢	$21	0x186bd9…
10-06 18:54:14	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x3d6e5b…
10-06 18:50:41	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	46	40¢	$18	0x1c2f5f…
10-06 18:50:20	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xee2a55…
10-06 18:50:18	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x34f343…
10-06 18:49:41	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x17a3b6…
10-06 18:49:29	Croatia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x29695c…
10-06 18:07:38	Jordan vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x4235d6…
10-05 22:39:16	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	26¢	$14	0x8bc825…
10-05 22:38:07	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	183	95¢	$174	0x1e2bf6…
10-04 19:58:31	Greece vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0x0752f6…
10-04 19:57:53	Portugal vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	56	52¢	$29	0xefa586…
10-04 19:55:58	Portugal vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x5968fd…
10-04 19:40:32	Greece vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x4ce495…
10-04 19:16:55	Greece vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	60	40¢	$24	0x9b0181…
10-04 19:12:59	Portugal vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	70	55¢	$38	0xa82c3f…
10-04 19:12:19	Greece vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x2762be…
10-04 19:00:08	Greece vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	80	55¢	$44	0x2f46e7…
10-04 19:00:01	Wales vs. Denmark: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xc05783…
10-04 18:56:46	Greece vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x679437…
10-04 16:32:59	Malta vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0x5be95a…
10-04 16:29:32	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x5a78ed…
10-04 16:27:08	Kosovo vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0xa76acf…
10-04 16:15:07	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xd0c7c4…
10-04 16:15:02	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x830b60…
10-04 16:14:58	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xed2764…
10-04 16:14:44	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x748fdb…
10-04 16:14:41	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb600a0…
10-04 16:14:41	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	55	44¢	$24	0xa00d5f…
10-04 16:14:41	Kosovo vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1759ce…
10-04 16:13:29	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8fdedc…
10-04 16:13:16	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xbf6a42…
10-04 16:13:04	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x0437f6…
10-04 16:13:02	Kosovo vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x70beef…
10-04 12:15:31	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	122	45¢	$55	0xb89503…
10-03 20:27:05	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x272bbb…
10-03 19:43:42	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	60	40¢	$24	0x97713c…
10-03 19:31:09	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xcd4442…
10-03 19:12:37	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5f1770…
10-03 19:12:19	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	78	60¢	$47	0x85cfb0…
10-03 17:11:32	Croatia vs. England: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	45	50¢	$23	0x664556…
10-03 17:11:24	Croatia vs. England: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	45	50¢	$22	0x9b38e9…
10-03 00:52:06	Colombia vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xe590c4…
10-03 00:52:06	Colombia vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	18	30¢	$6	0x21e04a…
10-03 00:52:05	Colombia vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	77	30¢	$23	0x3e4f50…
10-03 00:39:11	Colombia vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	40¢	$28	0xb62610…
10-03 00:04:11	Colombia vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	90	43¢	$39	0xd6d5a2…
10-02 20:10:17	Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)	Ukraine	BUY	68	38¢	$26	0x3b56ef…
10-02 20:10:15	Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)	Ukraine	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x6b706a…
10-02 20:09:09	Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	58	45¢	$26	0xebbac2…
10-02 20:08:47	Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)	Ukraine	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xa52ef3…
10-02 20:08:33	Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xd78cd2…
10-02 20:08:12	Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbd2ed0…
10-02 20:07:45	Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xa37b79…
10-02 19:54:02	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	48	60¢	$29	0x539834…
10-02 19:53:59	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xcac1b1…
10-02 19:53:57	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	47	60¢	$28	0x9109b6…
10-02 19:53:56	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	47	60¢	$28	0xe2ebda…
10-02 19:53:50	Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	4	60¢	$3	0x4c212b…
10-02 19:34:30	Spread: Northern Ireland (-1.5)	Ukraine	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0x9a48d6…
10-02 19:15:03	Faroe Islands vs. Slovakia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x98ebd4…
10-02 19:15:00	Faroe Islands vs. Slovakia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	53¢	$37	0x0325b9…
10-02 14:38:56	Kazakhstan vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	55	50¢	$28	0x619b19…
10-02 14:25:08	Kazakhstan vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	70	58¢	$41	0xfe7e52…
10-02 12:28:12	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x54065f…
10-02 12:27:53	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x907c6f…
10-02 12:27:38	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x902a49…
10-02 12:27:18	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x3bae62…
10-02 12:27:17	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	42	55¢	$23	0x7c3ff0…
10-02 12:09:53	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x10896a…
10-02 12:09:47	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb2b783…
10-02 12:09:47	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa45fc0…
10-02 12:09:47	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x5a6936…
10-02 12:09:30	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x802b5b…
10-02 12:09:27	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xf90816…
10-02 12:09:27	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe53898…
10-02 12:09:27	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2b82f0…
10-02 12:09:27	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x2305b5…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xd80493…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb3da8c…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa7364e…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x994ebc…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x8b993c…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x6235a7…
10-02 12:09:26	Korea Republic vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1e9f60…