Organic-Fly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.7%

Resolved

1,231

Trades

3,234

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-30 13:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 213 days

Categories

Other

99% 51% +$50

Politics

1% 20% -$75

Crypto

0% 60% -$1

Sports

0% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$161	222	222	+0	Yes	+$21	01-29 22:01
highest temperature in london on february 5 2026 8c	3	$145	220	0	+220	Yes	+$75	02-05 16:55
highest temperature in ankara on march 29 2026 10c	7	$142	91	91	+0	Yes	+$35	03-29 13:02
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$141	80	80	+0	Yes	+$18	09-21 06:18
highest temperature in toronto on march 7 2026 16corhigher	8	$133	132	102	+30	Yes	-$17	03-07 17:37
highest temperature in moscow on april 2 2026 11c	4	$108	65	65	+0	Yes	+$22	04-02 12:50
highest temperature in ankara on march 12 2026 15corhigher	8	$107	139	139	-0	No	+$27	03-12 11:34
highest temperature in ankara on march 7 2026 7c	7	$106	95	95	+0	Yes	+$55	03-07 12:34
highest temperature in ankara on march 12 2026 14c	7	$101	72	72	+0	Yes	+$35	03-12 12:34
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 15?	2	$91	50	50	+0	No	+$6	07-15 14:41
highest temperature in nyc on february 3 2026 34 35f	3	$84	100	100	+0	No	-$28	02-03 19:30
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?	2	$75	50	50	+0	No	+$9	05-08 14:32
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 11?	2	$74	40	40	+0	Yes	+$4	08-11 16:57
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 11?	6	$73	40	40	+0	Yes	+$5	09-11 14:22
highest temperature in paris on february 25 2026 22corhigher	17	$73	461	0	+461	No	-$73	02-25 14:54
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 12?	5	$72	45	45	+0	No	+$0	07-12 14:30
highest temperature in paris on february 16 2026 10c	5	$72	95	25	+70	No	-$51	02-16 13:47
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 14?	2	$72	40	36	+4	Yes	+$2	08-14 13:08
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 15?	3	$72	50	50	+0	No	-$7	07-15 12:48
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 27?	3	$71	40	40	+0	No	+$6	08-27 15:13
highest temperature in sao paulo on february 24 2026 28corhigher	5	$69	50	50	+0	Yes	+$30	02-25 05:21
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$66	42	42	+0	Yes	+$16	02-01 09:53
highest temperature in seoul on february 20 2026 11corhigher	6	$66	276	0	+276	Yes	+$210	02-19 20:27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?	8	$64	75	0	+75	Yes	-$64	05-28 11:42
highest temperature in london on february 5 2026 9c	1	$64	100	0	+100	No	+$36	02-05 13:03
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?	2	$64	40	40	+0	No	+$16	08-27 17:33
highest temperature in ankara on march 28 2026 18corhigher	7	$64	60	60	+0	No	-$14	03-28 10:59
highest temperature in toronto on march 9 2026 17corhigher	8	$64	114	0	+114	Yes	+$50	03-09 10:55
highest temperature in moscow on april 1 2026 16c	6	$63	40	50	-10	Yes	+$1	04-01 14:20
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5?	6	$62	70	30	+40	Yes	-$5	08-05 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 13:07:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x73e5f6…
10-30 12:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 30?	No	SELL	35	83¢	$29	0x97e93d…
10-30 11:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x051f3b…
10-28 13:21:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x37bdbe…
10-28 11:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x070d5e…
10-27 13:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x732fb6…
10-27 13:26:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 27?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9e30fa…
10-26 10:32:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 26?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x494be1…
10-26 10:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x98d716…
10-23 21:19:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xc7cea9…
10-20 11:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x5199c7…
10-19 14:28:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 19?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x950853…
10-15 13:17:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x1f8bcf…
10-15 13:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 15?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xec5bac…
10-15 12:13:53	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 15?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x93d8f0…
10-14 20:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x1ccb09…
10-12 21:40:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8409d4…
10-12 11:48:38	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x711bc9…
10-12 11:38:32	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xd453c4…
10-12 10:03:47	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x14d885…
10-12 09:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x128111…
10-12 08:57:07	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xeb110b…
10-11 10:40:32	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on October 11?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3fc5df…
10-11 10:24:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 11?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x9fbe2e…
10-11 10:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 11?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xc0f16c…
10-10 20:27:51	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 11?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xf4828a…
10-10 12:46:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on October 10?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x8d23af…
10-10 11:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 10?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x16dc54…
10-10 10:56:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 10?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0x21d18d…
10-10 10:55:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 10?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x14f829…
10-10 10:53:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 10?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x47f15f…
10-10 10:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 10?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$1	0x4dcc0c…
10-10 10:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on October 10?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xab911b…
10-08 12:28:50	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 8?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x5ff4bc…
10-08 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 8?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x6321d8…
10-08 11:47:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 8?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe53fe9…
10-08 11:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x59924f…
10-08 10:57:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x056a92…
10-08 10:53:27	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7fcde9…
10-08 10:40:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 8?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x485714…
10-08 10:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xec3514…
10-08 09:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x7d3db2…
10-08 09:15:30	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xfd6332…
10-08 08:52:08	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xec9698…
10-08 08:37:41	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 8?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$17	0x997cef…
10-08 08:35:05	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 8?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0x198fb0…
10-07 18:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x19c055…
10-01 12:37:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 1?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x80a1b9…
10-01 12:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x070dc9…
10-01 12:23:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xacd559…
10-01 12:23:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x3dbf35…
09-29 20:47:32	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd501e6…
09-29 13:19:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	SELL	39	37¢	$14	0xc013fc…
09-29 12:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on September 29?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xb3d331…
09-29 12:15:41	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xc6ed1c…
09-29 12:14:11	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x3c7051…
09-29 12:14:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5c71a1…
09-29 12:14:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xcbf411…
09-29 12:14:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x4a2aa4…
09-29 12:13:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x85b365…
09-29 09:57:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x045c76…
09-29 09:46:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x52ecf3…
09-29 09:33:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6dcd2c…
09-29 09:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 29?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd4ff66…
09-28 10:52:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 28?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x10e78f…
09-28 10:40:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 28?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xfe88b1…
09-28 09:12:29	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x4c1725…
09-27 10:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 27?	No	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0xef5935…
09-27 10:51:47	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 27?	No	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x41bcb6…
09-27 10:50:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 27?	No	BUY	13	66¢	$8	0x91be58…
09-27 10:49:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 27?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xdf29e4…
09-27 10:48:41	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 27?	No	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0x02d842…
09-22 10:04:01	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on September 22?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0x20388e…
09-21 06:18:47	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xfac5a5…
09-18 14:04:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 18?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x15e520…
09-18 13:18:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x902ec1…
09-18 13:17:53	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 18?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x0a6fbc…
09-18 12:01:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0x6a9390…
09-18 09:16:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0xfb8140…
09-18 09:06:45	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x55e820…
09-16 10:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 16?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x24a907…
09-16 10:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xfdccdc…
09-16 09:53:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x6e5cf6…
09-15 17:06:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x012ca2…
09-15 07:17:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x68756f…
09-15 01:44:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 15?	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x0169ce…
09-15 01:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 15?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x92ef11…
09-14 18:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 14?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xbe407d…
09-14 18:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 14?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x775fc2…
09-14 18:42:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 14?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x1d724d…
09-14 13:59:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	17¢	$7	0x6a0736…
09-14 13:20:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 14?	No	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0x5002ef…
09-14 13:14:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 14?	No	BUY	27	82¢	$22	0xd018b0…
09-14 11:58:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x1a84fe…
09-14 11:29:36	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 14?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa07047…
09-14 11:25:49	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 14?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$15	0x3a1c4a…
09-14 08:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on September 14?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xf9aa88…
09-13 20:51:58	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x1b9179…
09-13 17:40:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x10a120…
09-13 17:36:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xabd30f…