Obvious-Pit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$900

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,054

lifetime

Volume

$113.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 08-08 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Sports

52% 50% $-284

Other

38% — —

Tech

5% 0% $-616

Politics

3% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	67	$8.5K	6,900	6,900	+0	open	—	01-26 20:05
nfl ne den 2026 01 25	5	$8.0K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	01-25 21:53
cbb uconn mich 2026 04 06	16	$7.3K	6,500	3,500	+3,000	open	—	04-06 21:27
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 500k	5	$4.0K	2,030	2,029	+1	open	—	01-08 07:35
cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	11	$4.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	03-17 09:28
nba min den 2026 04 20	60	$3.8K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	04-20 23:07
nba por sas 2026 04 19	7	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-20 02:49
cbb sfl lou 2026 03 19	22	$2.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-19 07:03
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	15	$2.5K	4,752	3,752	+1,000	open	—	02-08 18:48
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	25	$2.4K	1,287	1,351	-64	open	—	05-19 19:24
nba por sas 2026 04 21	8	$2.4K	2,800	0	+2,800	open	—	04-21 21:21
cbb uconn duke 2026 03 29	2	$2.3K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-29 22:44
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	8	$2.2K	2,300	1,000	+1,300	open	—	04-30 08:58
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	5	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	03-04 05:07
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21	9	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 03:42
cricipl sun raj 2026 04 13	23	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-13 16:13
nba hou lal 2026 04 18	4	$1.7K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	04-19 02:46
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings	16	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-18 16:58
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	18	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-19 17:03
atp alcaraz medvede 2026 03 14	44	$1.5K	1,500	1,000	+500	open	—	03-15 00:01
cbb pur arz 2026 03 28	17	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-29 02:17
nfl la car 2026 01 10	2	$1.2K	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	01-10 21:01
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	1	$1.0K	1,497	0	+1,497	open	—	06-05 23:50
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	11	$1.0K	900	500	+400	open	—	02-12 07:29
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	14	$996	2,000	1,415	+585	open	—	01-25 22:49
Spurs vs. Thunder	2	$980	1,150	0	+1,150	open	—	05-31 02:27
will arizona win the 2026 ncaa tournament	20	$973	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-03 10:13
nba hou lal 2026 04 18 total 207pt5	1	$910	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-19 02:47
nba hou lal 2026 04 18 spread away 5pt5	2	$910	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-19 02:47
spx up or down on january 30 2026	6	$887	700	230	+470	open	—	01-30 19:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 18:33:55	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	186	25¢	$46	0x9ef16c…
08-08 13:55:48	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$4	0x3cde87…
08-07 21:55:51	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x59e784…
08-07 02:20:07	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xf91cb6…
08-06 21:58:57	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xd56df8…
08-06 19:06:38	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x86c57e…
08-06 19:06:38	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0x33c503…
08-06 19:06:36	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x3b7c53…
08-05 14:13:33	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0xd896ef…
08-05 14:11:45	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	71	13¢	$9	0x791c06…
08-05 14:11:42	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	82	13¢	$11	0x398721…
08-05 14:11:41	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	82	13¢	$11	0xf2cc97…
08-05 14:11:35	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xca6e38…
08-05 14:11:32	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x2a1e3f…
08-04 22:32:30	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x1dc37b…
08-03 10:04:36	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x2c5747…
08-03 05:35:50	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x2ba336…
08-03 03:54:36	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xa91c50…
08-02 16:09:21	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	14	82¢	$12	0xa0f53a…
08-02 16:09:20	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	160	82¢	$131	0xf1ad48…
08-02 12:42:26	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xe1daae…
08-02 04:36:48	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xca9e0a…
08-02 00:57:56	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	No	SELL	24	93¢	$22	0x28395d…
08-02 00:42:50	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x70513c…
08-02 00:24:56	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x930c16…
08-02 00:14:56	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xb25183…
08-01 23:08:12	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x210351…
08-01 22:58:12	stripe vs databricks greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801001801595	Databricks	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x2922e2…
08-01 22:57:32	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xea086a…
08-01 13:53:27	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	26	82¢	$21	0x900eeb…
07-30 02:48:17	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xf57687…
07-30 02:47:24	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x126e6b…
07-30 02:45:21	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x557031…
07-30 02:44:42	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xb7fe14…
07-30 02:43:06	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x10a302…
07-30 02:41:32	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xd7ad3b…
07-30 02:34:48	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x0ae6f0…
07-30 02:33:30	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x99952a…
07-30 02:31:51	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xc8341e…
07-30 02:30:36	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xc67375…
07-28 18:46:31	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x754726…
07-28 14:08:22	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x3f09f9…
07-27 07:14:39	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xf48663…
07-27 07:01:57	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	67	10¢	$7	0xfb962e…
07-27 06:18:30	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x760389…
07-27 02:17:54	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x5f1657…
07-26 11:22:48	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	692	25¢	$173	0x5a32d8…
07-26 04:26:37	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe787e9…
07-25 08:39:33	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2197f2…
07-24 16:45:25	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x667fa7…
07-24 05:29:19	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x9d38af…
07-23 22:19:06	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x47c7cb…
07-23 17:03:39	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x820696…
07-23 11:42:45	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x4f0503…
07-23 11:42:45	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x4e98bf…
07-22 23:56:01	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xe13405…
07-19 21:22:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xad055d…
07-19 21:22:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	444	70¢	$310	0x37c32a…
07-18 21:41:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	320	92¢	$294	0x16b893…
07-16 05:43:52	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$25	0xb188b4…
07-16 05:18:11	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	144	84¢	$121	0x4bc2da…
07-16 05:08:31	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	56	84¢	$47	0x03e169…
07-12 01:19:17	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	425	73¢	$311	0x7ee491…
07-12 01:17:28	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0xf9ce51…
07-06 20:22:26	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	72	94¢	$68	0x3f44e4…
07-05 22:00:55	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0xa08c31…
07-05 20:32:32	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	874	71¢	$620	0x125e26…
07-05 20:17:11	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	93	70¢	$65	0xaf2e5a…
07-05 19:20:47	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7e2288…
07-05 06:22:55	will openais valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 538 161	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xa7c379…
07-04 23:00:49	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x39aa07…
07-04 20:11:17	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x7301bb…
07-04 20:11:16	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	609	94¢	$572	0xf127f5…
06-29 23:36:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xf58e71…
06-29 23:05:02	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x76fc39…
06-29 23:05:02	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0x6cb987…
06-29 23:04:59	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x1041f6…
06-29 23:04:59	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x058db2…
06-29 23:04:58	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	70	65¢	$46	0x33871c…
06-29 23:04:56	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x2b4a95…
06-29 23:04:53	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	109	65¢	$71	0x4bf4e6…
06-29 23:04:52	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xa311f4…
06-28 19:29:19	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0x3d721a…
06-22 02:42:11	will anthropics valuation hit low 600b by december 31 732	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x0b8c3a…
06-15 05:00:39	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	220	78¢	$172	0x85fbcb…
06-15 02:12:09	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Sean O'Malley	BUY	195	78¢	$152	0xf53427…
06-14 01:16:15	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	SELL	196	77¢	$151	0x446c88…
06-11 06:12:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	55	77¢	$42	0x1f0743…
06-09 12:52:13	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x2e6d89…
06-05 23:50:52	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	1,497	68¢	$1,018	0xbe3a5e…
06-05 08:28:52	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x031710…
06-04 03:13:09	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x579c34…
06-01 22:59:43	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xb750bf…
06-01 00:51:10	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5d8e48…
05-31 02:27:52	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0xdbeb06…
05-31 02:27:47	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	150	87¢	$130	0x45c9f1…
05-29 00:47:02	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	SELL	500	66¢	$330	0x4d5adb…
05-29 00:07:29	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0x348a40…
05-28 18:45:27	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	43	33¢	$14	0x600cb2…
05-28 17:04:34	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	No	BUY	78	75¢	$59	0xad1fdc…