Paltry-Fortress — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.23K

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

47.6%

Resolved

1,432

Trades

4,437

lifetime

Volume

$90.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$40

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 19:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 167 days

Categories

Other

61% 30% -$1,364

Politics

26% 39% -$8

Sports

9% 45% +$572

Tech

2% 38% -$269

Crypto

2% 37% -$39

Pop-Culture

2% 40% -$120

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes		+62	$50	42¢	$26	-$24	08-12 01:23
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes		+156	$36	8¢	$13	-$23	08-09 02:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$2.2K	2,490	2,490	+0	Yes	-$530	06-15 16:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$1.2K	669	669	+0	No	+$73	05-11 02:32
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	5	$1.2K	709	709	+0	No	+$10	01-03 17:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$1.2K	793	658	+135	No	+$270	04-28 18:57
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	11	$1.2K	615	1,045	-430	Yes	+$362	02-15 01:33
judy shelton fed chair nomination odds 10 by feb 20	3	$1.1K	400	775	-375	No	-$16	02-13 11:24
nba bos sas 2026 03 10	2	$900	1,526	0	+1,526	Spurs	+$626	03-10 21:23
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 12 million 218	24	$805	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	-$5	02-16 04:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$794	922	0	+922	No	+$128	05-23 21:36
will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	9	$765	400	400	+0	open	—	08-04 22:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$736	501	501	+0	No	+$105	05-30 17:52
another us bank failure by march 31	16	$668	617	246	+371	No	+$63	03-18 03:16
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$656	411	411	+0	No	-$14	04-15 00:08
will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255	5	$641	585	922	-337	No	-$252	01-05 02:05
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	8	$625	369	369	+0	Yes	+$83	04-02 23:19
cs2 furia pain 2026 03 09	3	$584	344	344	+0	FURIA	+$84	03-09 19:07
will paradex launch a token on march 5	3	$582	305	305	+0	Yes	-$18	03-05 14:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$562	549	200	+349	No	+$31	06-19 00:38
nhl nyr min 2026 03 14	2	$560	300	300	+0	Rangers	-$4	03-15 00:25
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22	4	$502	472	206	+267	Bilibili Gaming	+$69	03-22 16:27
cs2 g2 hero 2026 02 17	5	$475	299	299	+0	G2	-$3	02-17 16:09
megaeth fdv above 1pt4b one day after launch	4	$461	309	309	+0	Yes	-$39	04-30 16:34
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	8	$441	1,150	1,073	+77	Yes	-$39	08-12 01:19
us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	4	$433	250	250	+0	Yes	+$4	06-14 21:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$432	415	415	+0	No	-$28	06-19 01:43
lol th g2 2026 02 17	2	$420	220	220	+0	G2 Esports	+$20	02-17 19:17
will the state of the union address be delayed	7	$412	220	260	-40	No	+$4	02-18 23:00
will the dhs shutdown end between february 28 march 3 2026	7	$404	220	220	+0	No	-$6	02-15 21:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	8	$403	300	300	+0	Yes	-$10	04-06 02:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$400	690	0	+690	No	-$400	09-04 03:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 19:38:51	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	98¢	$112	0x18ebd3…
10-31 16:59:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	87¢	$100	0x222668…
09-10 01:49:30	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	43	26¢	$11	0xe81384…
09-04 03:16:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	690	58¢	$400	0xae79c5…
08-29 22:30:25	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x16333a…
08-21 20:24:48	nick fuentes federally charged	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0df41c…
08-14 12:22:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	145	21¢	$31	0xe89141…
08-14 12:14:16	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	SELL	67	90¢	$60	0xdc6c8e…
08-12 04:20:27	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	117	11¢	$13	0x8cb5fb…
08-12 02:47:24	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	52	60¢	$31	0xda2492…
08-12 02:43:07	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	65	55¢	$36	0xe6192e…
08-12 02:26:18	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	39	24¢	$9	0x12d65a…
08-12 02:11:27	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	52	39¢	$20	0xddc6b8…
08-12 01:50:13	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	35	58¢	$20	0x139daf…
08-12 01:49:06	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	34	63¢	$21	0x8f6a0f…
08-12 01:40:27	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xeb0d3a…
08-12 01:38:40	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xec4192…
08-12 01:38:30	Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xda61e8…
08-12 01:34:15	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x5cfc07…
08-12 01:33:30	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15	Islam Makhachev	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0x3d4658…
08-12 01:28:52	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x330b30…
08-12 01:25:43	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	63	47¢	$30	0xe0c65e…
08-12 01:25:12	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	SELL	48	61¢	$29	0x26acfb…
08-12 01:23:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x2c90a1…
08-12 01:19:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	77	78¢	$60	0x2d9fd0…
08-12 01:18:43	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x9fe30d…
08-11 04:39:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	73	81¢	$59	0x51ab24…
08-11 03:58:22	iran oman hormuz agreement by september 30	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x8b0688…
08-11 03:56:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	73	82¢	$60	0x1dcdb7…
08-11 00:14:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	130	15¢	$19	0x543643…
08-11 00:14:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	369	15¢	$55	0x917b96…
08-11 00:12:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	361	14¢	$51	0xf33ea9…
08-10 23:54:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	140	12¢	$17	0x74127e…
08-10 23:46:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x849221…
08-09 03:47:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	318	0¢	$1	0x06116b…
08-09 02:48:46	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	136	22¢	$30	0xc0b123…
08-09 02:48:12	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xf9e418…
08-08 23:53:12	Will "The Odyssey" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 32m?	No	SELL	38	76¢	$29	0xc8e138…
08-08 15:31:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	46	17¢	$8	0xc9d761…
08-08 15:31:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xa1e67b…
08-08 15:30:22	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	99	91¢	$90	0xf96b49…
08-08 15:29:30	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	42	15¢	$6	0xb39e18…
08-08 15:28:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x6e6be3…
08-08 15:26:01	Will "The Odyssey" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 32m?	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x5e7f1e…
08-08 15:25:03	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 160m?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x02b5ce…
08-08 15:23:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x38ff82…
08-08 15:21:49	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 140m and 150m?	Yes	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0xded396…
08-08 15:19:43	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	72	42¢	$30	0x88bc4a…
08-06 21:35:08	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	94	72¢	$67	0x00dd4c…
08-06 20:01:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	65	15¢	$10	0x56eefa…
08-06 20:01:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	222	50¢	$111	0x4433a7…
08-05 17:30:38	atp brooksb shelton 2026 08 06	Ben Shelton	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0xb87bdd…
08-05 16:53:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	101	69¢	$70	0x84bca0…
08-05 16:41:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x1b9f69…
08-05 12:41:27	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0xb3b211…
08-05 04:47:14	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	70	70¢	$49	0x610c1b…
08-05 04:19:59	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	SELL	57	2¢	$1	0x71f299…
08-05 04:17:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x3c86f8…
08-05 04:17:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x639ec7…
08-05 04:15:15	Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xf613ca…
08-05 04:13:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	108	65¢	$70	0xd7f2a0…
08-05 02:27:18	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	57	18¢	$10	0x238e77…
08-05 02:08:09	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	50	85¢	$43	0x31cc20…
08-04 22:13:54	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd38aa1…
08-04 22:12:42	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	145	29¢	$41	0x3aca21…
08-04 22:11:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x639343…
08-04 22:06:14	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	400	96¢	$384	0x86ff1a…
08-04 15:01:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	357	18¢	$64	0xad5c89…
08-04 12:38:29	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	94	64¢	$60	0xfdacaf…
08-04 12:37:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x7cb715…
08-04 12:37:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x5d8e8d…
08-04 02:51:02	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	35¢	$50	0xe1287d…
08-04 02:15:24	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	76	75¢	$57	0x4f577c…
08-04 01:53:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	357	14¢	$50	0x2d13dc…
08-04 01:42:05	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x716ba7…
08-04 01:40:41	will iran target a arab country on august 4 2026 20260801004719121	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x1bbfdb…
08-04 00:53:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	83	41¢	$34	0x37e59c…
08-03 19:46:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	152	3¢	$5	0x919d66…
08-03 19:44:09	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x0aff65…
08-02 16:01:36	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0xe606b4…
08-02 15:58:54	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xe4a7d1…
08-02 15:08:51	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	Yes	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x76806e…
08-02 05:14:54	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	SELL	103	95¢	$97	0x32eb6d…
08-02 03:42:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0x39a5ba…
08-02 03:42:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	32	86¢	$27	0xb60400…
08-01 17:30:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0x12e92c…
08-01 17:29:30	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?	No	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x162dd5…
08-01 11:40:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xdae3ee…
08-01 11:38:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xc994fa…
07-31 16:39:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xbe0291…
07-31 16:38:06	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x4c1f92…
07-31 14:28:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xe0ff51…
07-31 12:08:14	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xdf92f8…
07-31 12:07:02	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x8e44d6…
07-31 12:05:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	107	75¢	$80	0x3c3ac8…
07-31 12:05:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0x7a378c…
07-31 04:31:24	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0xb92f39…
07-31 04:30:05	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	No	SELL	57	61¢	$35	0xe64f98…
07-31 01:08:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x0d6e35…
07-31 01:03:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x52e74a…