Ignorant-Ability-Youth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$62

Hit rate

87.5%

Resolved

170

Trades

303

lifetime

Volume

$39.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$551

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-28

last 11-06 18:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

64% 83% +$8,351

Tech

29% 90% +$3,221

Crypto

7% 100% +$294

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+448	$200	77¢	$346	+$146	11-05 17:47
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	+412	$200	31¢	$126	-$74	11-06 18:45
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+392	$200	16¢	$63	-$137	11-06 18:46
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	+20	$10	66¢	$13	+$3	11-06 18:45
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+7	$3	46¢	$3	+$0	11-06 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	3	$1.5K	1,537	1,537	+0	Yes	+$1,120	09-03 02:33
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	6	$1.2K	1,330	0	+1,330	Yes	+$82	10-13 22:47
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	5	$1.2K	1,350	0	+1,350	Yes	+$107	10-13 22:49
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	2	$1.0K	741	574	+167	Yes	+$206	06-11 00:16
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	2	$1.0K	1,095	0	+1,095	Yes	+$62	10-13 22:46
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	2	$983	1,054	0	+1,054	Yes	+$71	10-13 22:44
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	3	$962	8,252	8,252	+0	open	—	09-18 21:15
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	1	$803	830	0	+830	Yes	+$27	10-13 22:46
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	2	$787	807	0	+807	No	+$20	10-22 23:31
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	1	$678	886	0	+886	No	+$207	10-22 23:29
will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500	2	$647	452	452	+0	No	+$256	06-06 15:41
will lambdas valuation hit high 8b by august 31 20260730182857552	2	$641	333	333	+0	Yes	+$11	08-20 19:20
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	22	$634	443	443	+0	No	+$244	08-22 20:46
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$590	445	445	+0	Yes	+$190	08-24 21:02
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	4	$565	427	427	+0	Yes	+$89	06-15 08:03
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	6	$546	839	839	+0	No	-$18	08-19 20:02
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$514	453	230	+223	No	-$53	08-07 03:23
will revoluts valuation hit high 115b by august 31 20260731174621601	1	$500	560	0	+560	Yes	+$60	08-20 18:16
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?	1	$500	601	0	+601	Yes	+$101	10-13 13:00
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	1	$500	647	0	+647	Yes	+$147	10-28 17:06
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut as #1? (Text Arena)	1	$500	626	0	+626	Yes	+$126	09-02 23:24
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by October 31?	1	$465	478	0	+478	No	+$13	11-02 18:00
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	1	$457	533	0	+533	No	+$76	10-26 19:06
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	2	$436	300	300	+0	No	+$103	08-27 18:19
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	5	$425	397	348	+50	Yes	-$58	08-07 03:23
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?	4	$408	213	213	+0	Yes	+$8	08-23 06:37
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	3	$405	461	289	+172	Yes	-$18	06-06 07:07
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	3	$403	226	226	+0	Yes	+$3	06-10 23:31
Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$396	392	392	+0	Yes	+$27	08-13 17:16
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	1	$391	448	0	+448	Yes	+$56	11-03 17:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 18:46:43	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	392	51¢	$200	0x80b19d…
11-06 18:45:43	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	412	49¢	$200	0x8359d6…
11-06 18:45:42	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xf6bcb9…
11-06 18:45:42	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc9e73c…
11-05 17:47:40	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	448	45¢	$200	0xf0caf4…
11-03 17:19:03	Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	448	87¢	$391	0x5c8596…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $31B by October 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xff9cd3…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $115B by October 31?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0xfee98a…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfc9206…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by October 31?	No	BUY	478	97¢	$465	0xf37f55…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xea8023…
11-02 18:00:09	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation at the end of October?	Yes	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xdb8da9…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xd7ca57…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $28B by October 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xd0036c…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $55B by October 31?	No	BUY	292	99¢	$288	0xa47be0…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	98¢	$144	0x983e93…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	191	98¢	$188	0x93843d…
11-02 18:00:09	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $562.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	111	95¢	$106	0x730853…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7B by October 31?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0x6abba3…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	138	99¢	$137	0x64d25c…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.5B by October 31?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x5dde4b…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20B by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3f5040…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $32B by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x21eb23…
11-02 18:00:09	Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0663ec…
10-28 17:06:43	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	366	7¢	$25	0x7d0f1c…
10-28 17:06:43	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	401	8¢	$34	0x43dccb…
10-28 17:06:40	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	93	79¢	$73	0xc49bba…
10-28 17:06:40	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	227	69¢	$157	0xb898d8…
10-28 17:06:25	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	647	77¢	$500	0xd66ce7…
10-26 19:06:33	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	174	93¢	$161	0xd2340f…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	BUY	533	86¢	$457	0xd016d6…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	No	BUY	409	73¢	$298	0x97d6f5…
10-26 19:06:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	295	83¢	$245	0x6586e3…
10-23 13:25:20	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	145	92¢	$134	0x0d5d94…
10-23 00:50:20	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	23¢	$15	0x3fc2ff…
10-23 00:50:18	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	85	14¢	$12	0x6f4e15…
10-23 00:49:38	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	252	38¢	$97	0x62fd63…
10-23 00:49:38	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	159	67¢	$106	0x5363c4…
10-23 00:49:38	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	193	42¢	$81	0x4b05c1…
10-23 00:49:38	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x4814ba…
10-23 00:49:36	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	57¢	$20	0x7ebc8d…
10-23 00:49:36	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	65	32¢	$21	0x7aa924…
10-23 00:49:36	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0x0ab4f4…
10-22 23:31:50	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	564	99¢	$558	0x28ca43…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	243	94¢	$229	0xc4b1fe…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	203	91¢	$185	0x86a749…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	886	77¢	$678	0x77295f…
10-22 23:29:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	94¢	$81	0x2f90a0…
10-22 17:00:09	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.25B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x657f5c…
10-22 17:00:08	Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	81	52¢	$42	0x37dbcd…
10-22 17:00:08	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x204456…
10-21 17:00:09	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.2T by October 31?	Yes	BUY	176	95¢	$166	0xa3400d…
10-19 15:38:32	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	401	44¢	$175	0xbb942b…
10-19 15:38:30	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	6¢	$23	0xa07a56…
10-14 04:29:59	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	234	87¢	$203	0xee7343…
10-14 04:29:59	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	465	76¢	$351	0xeafbf6…
10-14 04:29:59	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	377	76¢	$288	0xd3ccd0…
10-14 04:29:59	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$9	0x2d7e7e…
10-13 22:49:22	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	94	98¢	$92	0xb7fd20…
10-13 22:47:55	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	57	97¢	$55	0x2b8f50…
10-13 22:47:51	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	60	97¢	$59	0x196439…
10-13 22:47:39	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	362	97¢	$351	0x99e481…
10-13 22:47:33	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	381	96¢	$365	0x5450b7…
10-13 22:46:55	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	900	97¢	$873	0xa40d77…
10-13 22:46:36	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	830	97¢	$803	0x262b06…
10-13 22:46:03	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	126	96¢	$121	0x8a2908…
10-13 22:45:24	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xc4c543…
10-13 22:45:19	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	74	93¢	$69	0x3cb320…
10-13 22:44:34	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	546	96¢	$526	0x98d572…
10-13 22:43:39	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	183	94¢	$172	0xfb292b…
10-13 22:43:33	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	176	92¢	$161	0xd5e593…
10-13 22:42:34	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	545	95¢	$518	0xfce4e5…
10-13 22:42:28	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	236	93¢	$219	0xf8562c…
10-13 22:42:28	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	596	93¢	$557	0xdc9e7b…
10-13 22:42:28	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x3b60a5…
10-13 22:34:42	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	241	78¢	$189	0xfced09…
10-13 22:34:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	266	67¢	$177	0xc8c8d8…
10-13 22:34:40	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0xf44d98…
10-13 22:34:40	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	195	82¢	$160	0xe35615…
10-13 22:34:40	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	508	90¢	$456	0xcae252…
10-13 22:34:40	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	354	70¢	$249	0xa8c70b…
10-13 18:40:18	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xcba50a…
10-13 18:40:06	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	193	45¢	$87	0x90d7d5…
10-13 18:40:06	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x5bbd11…
10-13 18:40:06	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	128	59¢	$75	0x44a794…
10-13 18:40:06	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	252	71¢	$179	0x1eaa15…
10-13 13:00:32	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	601	83¢	$500	0x50a6b9…
10-08 17:43:18	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	215	99¢	$213	0x8f0802…
10-08 17:42:59	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0xc717de…
10-08 17:27:26	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	85	62¢	$52	0xd00ff5…
10-08 17:27:26	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	251	26¢	$66	0x7f80e7…
10-08 17:27:20	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	402	50¢	$200	0x2adf28…
10-08 17:27:18	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	70	88¢	$62	0xd5566b…
10-08 17:27:18	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	67	90¢	$61	0x3c095d…
10-08 17:27:18	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	893	20¢	$178	0x29bda3…
10-07 17:00:04	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by October 31?	Yes	BUY	168	95¢	$160	0xb611b4…
10-07 17:00:04	Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x68ea33…
10-01 17:00:36	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by September 30?	No	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0xf5b9c5…
10-01 17:00:26	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by September 30?	No	BUY	68	98¢	$66	0x3384b9…
10-01 17:00:26	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $195B by September 30?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0x103edc…