Unwritten-Quiet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.99K

Unrealized P&L

-$12.5K

Hit rate

90.6%

Resolved

124

Trades

749

lifetime

Volume

$703.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$939

Open exposure

$32.2K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-16 10:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

55% 95% +$11,956

Politics

35% 85% -$9,797

Tech

6% 73% +$2,222

Sports

4% 100% +$610

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	+9,189	$8,344	99¢	$9.1K	+$725	10-02 09:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+8,948	$7,119	94¢	$8.5K	+$1,337	10-16 10:00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+5,759	$5,299	99¢	$5.7K	+$420	09-28 21:38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+5,190	$4,825	92¢	$4.7K	-$76	09-28 21:41
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	+3,028	$2,953	99¢	$3.0K	+$58	09-09 21:32
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+18,296	$16,140	6¢	$1.2K	-$14,951	07-31 09:34
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$4	94¢	$5	+$0	10-02 13:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	41	$34.1K	37,312	0	+37,312	Yes	+$3,209	07-07 11:07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	4	$30.9K	25,755	9,840	+15,915	Yes	-$14,399	02-22 15:20
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	27	$26.5K	13,603	13,603	+0	No	+$654	07-31 09:28
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$22.0K	22,665	0	+22,665	No	+$680	02-10 23:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	7	$21.6K	11,266	11,266	-0	No	+$620	09-19 06:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	12	$20.8K	15,324	5,831	+9,493	No	+$294	05-28 14:38
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$19.5K	15,000	5,000	+10,000	Yes	+$426	06-20 09:54
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	12	$19.0K	20,012	0	+20,012	Yes	+$971	05-31 08:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$18.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	-$350	04-09 21:10
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$18.8K	19,210	0	+19,210	No	+$403	02-08 21:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	7	$17.0K	17,923	0	+17,923	No	+$918	04-13 06:02
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	30	$16.9K	17,326	0	+17,326	Yes	+$450	04-01 22:19
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	4	$16.9K	17,391	0	+17,391	No	+$522	09-20 13:34
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	5	$16.3K	12,183	4,449	+7,734	No	+$239	07-31 07:41
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	23	$16.1K	18,296	0	+18,296	open	—	07-31 09:34
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	2	$15.1K	15,751	0	+15,751	No	+$685	08-02 20:52
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	51	$14.7K	11,136	4,100	+7,036	Yes	+$261	07-08 20:39
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	1	$14.6K	14,980	0	+14,980	Yes	+$419	06-01 19:53
will artemis ii launch by february 7	1	$14.5K	14,559	0	+14,559	No	+$15	02-01 09:20
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	8	$14.1K	8,619	7,424	+1,195	No	+$124	04-13 07:28
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	3	$13.4K	13,783	0	+13,783	No	+$378	06-26 22:47
pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	13	$11.4K	6,504	5,030	+1,473	No	+$164	07-31 08:44
will google have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	20	$11.0K	12,048	0	+12,048	Yes	+$1,002	01-04 22:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	5	$10.5K	11,379	2,431	+8,948	open	—	10-16 10:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$9.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$500	05-06 07:47
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	2	$9.3K	9,402	0	+9,402	No	+$59	02-28 17:38
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	21	$8.8K	10,291	0	+10,291	Yes	+$1,515	05-21 06:21
trump out as president by march 31	2	$8.6K	8,850	0	+8,850	No	+$232	02-23 21:24
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	12	$8.3K	9,189	0	+9,189	open	—	10-02 09:48
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	6	$8.2K	8,906	0	+8,906	No	+$716	07-27 05:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 10:00:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	8,948	82¢	$7,337	0xfddb8b…
10-08 22:21:51	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	7,324	94¢	$6,885	0x695225…
10-08 10:18:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	294	69¢	$203	0xe12d2f…
10-08 10:14:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xe389ba…
10-08 10:12:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,130	69¢	$1,470	0x250894…
10-02 13:59:44	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe13c3e…
10-02 09:48:45	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	1,631	91¢	$1,484	0xd86946…
10-02 08:53:27	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x876c57…
10-02 08:10:32	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	177	91¢	$161	0x25e3ca…
10-02 07:19:54	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x451f4d…
10-02 07:19:53	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xa1ac7e…
10-02 07:19:51	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	24	91¢	$22	0x49ba4b…
10-02 07:19:50	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xa43e12…
10-02 05:30:27	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x7fcef7…
10-02 05:30:26	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xad5153…
10-02 05:30:26	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	5,461	91¢	$4,970	0x9f2ff3…
10-01 21:44:12	Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x9a3445…
10-01 20:52:59	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	396	90¢	$356	0xec0d2c…
10-01 20:50:00	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	BUY	1,391	90¢	$1,252	0x0d1ffc…
10-01 14:28:17	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	BUY	2,431	60¢	$1,459	0xc7a58d…
09-29 15:21:24	will spacex starship flight test 15 launch by october 31	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x52148b…
09-28 21:52:56	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	No	BUY	5,828	98¢	$5,685	0xc42efb…
09-28 21:45:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,492	97¢	$3,383	0x5622b2…
09-28 21:41:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5,000	93¢	$4,650	0x794927…
09-28 21:39:54	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x878009…
09-28 21:38:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	5,759	92¢	$5,299	0x72485f…
09-21 08:34:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	190	92¢	$175	0xc1c517…
09-21 00:48:41	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	163	98¢	$161	0x0ab3c8…
09-20 13:34:57	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	11,000	97¢	$10,670	0x413ed7…
09-20 13:34:07	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	441	97¢	$427	0x28de24…
09-19 06:17:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	SELL	11,266	98¢	$11,097	0xc9ba3d…
09-17 16:51:13	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by september 30 226	Yes	BUY	569	90¢	$512	0x3cbf50…
09-17 16:48:19	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by september 30 226	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0xd87733…
09-17 09:18:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x48859e…
09-17 09:17:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	66	90¢	$60	0x31b9b4…
09-17 09:17:07	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x999182…
09-17 09:17:03	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x0b445f…
09-16 08:03:18	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by september 30 226	Yes	BUY	140	90¢	$126	0x9fec64…
09-16 01:07:13	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by september 30 226	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x5e9254…
09-15 20:49:49	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	950	97¢	$922	0x6955ff…
09-15 20:49:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	874	95¢	$830	0xf63a4d…
09-15 20:47:25	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	5,000	97¢	$4,850	0xc9a605…
09-15 20:46:21	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by september 30 226	Yes	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0x06c101…
09-14 08:00:12	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,703	95¢	$1,624	0xd28d89…
09-12 04:05:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xc0146f…
09-10 15:36:24	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$78	0x8ee9ea…
09-10 14:42:07	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x52f94e…
09-10 14:41:54	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	93¢	$44	0xed0af9…
09-10 14:41:52	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	161	93¢	$149	0xcb1d03…
09-10 14:41:52	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	93¢	$34	0x9e8904…
09-10 14:41:52	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	93¢	$31	0x9e0fc3…
09-10 14:41:52	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	128	93¢	$119	0x795278…
09-10 14:41:51	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	851	94¢	$799	0x282cd1…
09-10 09:43:39	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x90a07e…
09-10 09:43:31	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	194	97¢	$188	0x7a399d…
09-10 05:37:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x4a68b1…
09-10 02:41:00	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xe41fee…
09-10 02:39:43	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0xd0b128…
09-09 21:50:58	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	93¢	$15	0x3ea85e…
09-09 21:50:55	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xc58513…
09-09 21:50:54	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xe33182…
09-09 21:32:03	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,028	98¢	$2,953	0x5f02f2…
09-09 21:30:34	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	157	93¢	$146	0x3638f4…
09-09 21:29:52	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	74	93¢	$69	0x114996…
09-09 21:28:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	566	97¢	$548	0x29614e…
09-09 21:25:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	497	90¢	$447	0x46fbb5…
09-09 21:25:31	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	560	92¢	$515	0x18cc1f…
09-09 11:37:06	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xaee2c2…
09-07 18:39:03	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	1¢	$2	0x6159fa…
09-07 15:39:30	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x03042d…
09-07 15:38:55	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	No	BUY	250	98¢	$244	0x957b36…
09-07 15:36:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xc30f86…
09-07 15:01:28	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$2	0xfb1a23…
09-06 12:52:28	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	2¢	$3	0x021cdd…
09-03 05:27:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	5,713	93¢	$5,313	0x8fb1b1…
09-03 04:21:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0x5fe761…
09-03 01:48:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	196	93¢	$182	0xdc90ec…
09-02 19:19:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xf0a2ea…
09-02 19:18:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	2,553	93¢	$2,374	0x5eea4b…
09-02 17:04:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	2,602	93¢	$2,419	0x1abf54…
08-30 20:55:54	Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	272	2¢	$7	0x8b72c4…
08-17 04:10:43	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	636	11¢	$70	0x0dfcfe…
08-16 21:17:31	will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by august 31	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x946d1d…
08-07 08:15:22	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	21	65¢	$13	0x56a7a7…
08-07 08:14:33	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xa0fbd7…
08-07 08:01:46	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	19	65¢	$12	0x0250a7…
08-07 07:20:34	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	143	65¢	$93	0xa7c5a7…
08-07 07:11:27	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	260	65¢	$169	0x581534…
08-07 04:05:06	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	314	65¢	$204	0x31f4e6…
08-07 04:01:24	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x2f0a1b…
08-07 02:00:55	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x3e00ba…
08-06 23:15:21	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0xcb09ac…
08-06 23:14:35	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	1,500	65¢	$975	0xcd4b33…
08-06 13:14:12	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	980	95¢	$933	0x19e829…
08-06 09:30:36	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	140	65¢	$91	0xa15b39…
08-06 03:41:41	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741052	Yes	BUY	53	65¢	$34	0x6afa76…
08-05 22:07:21	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	6,000	94¢	$5,663	0x78752e…
08-05 21:24:03	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7f60db…
08-05 21:23:57	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x35046d…
08-05 21:23:26	will wti dip to 60 in august 2026	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x541e3b…