Sturdy-Methodology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$57

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.0%

Resolved

Trades

710

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 05-06 05:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 50% +$4

Sports

13% 25% +$42

Other

12% 100% +$13

Politics

2% 0% $-3

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 353 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	3	$561	644	0	+644	open	—	04-28 03:45
76ers vs. Celtics	6	$349	237	230	+7	open	—	05-03 02:07
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker	2	$332	233	233	+0	open	—	05-01 00:38
76ers vs. Celtics	9	$318	409	303	+106	open	—	04-29 01:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$296	196	196	+0	open	—	05-02 08:15
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	5	$251	160	160	+0	open	—	04-30 22:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	3	$205	287	0	+287	open	—	04-30 19:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	04-27 12:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	2	$182	124	124	+0	open	—	05-02 08:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	3	$169	140	140	+0	open	—	05-02 08:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$159	208	110	+98	open	—	04-30 23:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	2	$155	106	106	+0	open	—	04-30 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$151	92	92	+0	open	—	05-02 06:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$149	100	100	+0	open	—	04-30 19:00
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 Playoffs	2	$141	91	91	+0	open	—	05-01 02:07
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	3	$139	155	81	+74	open	—	05-02 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$132	242	175	+67	open	—	04-30 13:02
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	3	$131	133	133	+0	Timberwolves	+$91	05-05 04:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$130	344	0	+344	open	—	04-29 20:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$128	79	79	+0	open	—	05-02 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	3	$120	202	0	+202	open	—	04-29 03:10
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$119	186	186	+0	open	—	05-01 11:54
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B	2	$112	62	62	+0	open	—	05-01 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	5	$110	161	0	+161	open	—	04-30 12:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$108	64	64	+0	open	—	04-28 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$102	129	84	+45	open	—	05-02 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	3	$99	101	80	+21	open	—	05-02 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	14	$99	93	93	+0	open	—	04-30 20:08
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	2	$97	66	66	+0	Yes	$-3	04-30 22:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	3	$90	188	0	+188	open	—	04-29 19:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 05:32:50	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0xaf42f8…
05-06 05:32:32	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x58e15a…
05-06 05:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x6e17fc…
05-06 05:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x71bb35…
05-06 05:23:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd19a57…
05-05 22:50:34	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends 1st Division	Aura Farmers	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xf04a30…
05-05 04:18:12	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x3ad82f…
05-05 04:18:08	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa5132c…
05-05 04:13:10	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x134057…
05-05 04:12:28	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	SELL	133	83¢	$110	0xc84bc9…
05-04 09:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xbffc67…
05-04 09:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x8dbdd7…
05-04 09:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x8d4494…
05-04 09:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x4eca56…
05-04 09:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x1b694f…
05-04 09:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3bbf4f…
05-04 09:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xeb5d97…
05-04 09:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xa20da7…
05-04 09:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x4ebdc4…
05-04 09:02:00	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D	HyperSpirit	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6376ac…
05-04 09:01:06	LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Hanwha Life Esports Challengers	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x7bb109…
05-03 12:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xeb6c10…
05-03 12:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0x52942a…
05-03 12:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x054e98…
05-03 12:31:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x798f34…
05-03 12:24:28	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - MLBB Continental Championships Regular Season	Team Yandex	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xc95461…
05-03 12:23:08	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends 1st Division	Aura Farmers	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5628a0…
05-03 12:22:56	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends 1st Division	Aura Farmers	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3f61eb…
05-03 12:22:30	Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Suplex Team (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends 2nd Division	Suplex Team	BUY	55	37¢	$20	0xab23b2…
05-03 12:15:54	Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs The Last Resort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage	The Last Resort	BUY	116	25¢	$29	0x7f619d…
05-03 12:12:06	LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Ninjas in Pyjamas	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x86c6f5…
05-03 12:04:22	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards	Liaoning Flying Leopards	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x5170b2…
05-03 12:02:14	Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Moyuka Uchijima	Moyuka Uchijima	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc4da43…
05-03 11:59:30	LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	HANJIN BRION	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xb21494…
05-03 02:29:54	Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffs	Ground Zero	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x006d47…
05-03 02:29:30	LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	HANJIN BRION	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xcf86e3…
05-03 02:19:06	New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x2ded23…
05-03 02:15:44	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago White Sox	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xb76a94…
05-03 02:15:14	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x3be641…
05-03 02:14:40	Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5	Over	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x915251…
05-03 02:13:26	Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x320141…
05-03 02:10:20	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xd3bc2a…
05-03 02:10:12	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x74efcf…
05-03 02:07:58	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	SELL	230	100¢	$229	0x569bbc…
05-03 01:33:54	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x1ac9a3…
05-03 00:02:12	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x9001a8…
05-02 23:22:58	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xe9f157…
05-02 23:22:20	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x7a8be5…
05-02 23:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x391c19…
05-02 23:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	24	39¢	$10	0x824e2d…
05-02 23:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x2f02c3…
05-02 22:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x3aaa56…
05-02 22:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xac4396…
05-02 22:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	62	49¢	$30	0xb030a5…
05-02 22:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x8352d9…
05-02 22:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xd41bee…
05-02 22:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	80	93¢	$74	0x2f5a5e…
05-02 22:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x9913fe…
05-02 21:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc06e5e…
05-02 21:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x2a2b82…
05-02 21:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xadc924…
05-02 21:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xaefb4d…
05-02 12:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x724632…
05-02 12:02:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x80e764…
05-02 12:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x778dd6…
05-02 12:00:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x356350…
05-02 12:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	69	51¢	$35	0x4e088f…
05-02 11:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	179	11¢	$20	0x279173…
05-02 11:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x414a7c…
05-02 11:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0xba98cc…
05-02 11:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x526db2…
05-02 09:58:08	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3d2b4c…
05-02 09:54:06	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x210f40…
05-02 09:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x234a55…
05-02 08:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0xf3d1b4…
05-02 08:49:46	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	FaZe	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x52e7f2…
05-02 08:45:56	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	SELL	81	73¢	$59	0xa2d134…
05-02 08:45:20	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	BUY	81	74¢	$60	0x954042…
05-02 08:43:16	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0x7e63fd…
05-02 08:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xba098f…
05-02 08:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x29a363…
05-02 08:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xb97aec…
05-02 08:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x39ea85…
05-02 08:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x757a33…
05-02 08:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x686f3e…
05-02 08:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x979e2e…
05-02 08:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xacdce0…
05-02 08:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	140	99¢	$139	0x1f8b1e…
05-02 08:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	66	15¢	$10	0x469f1b…
05-02 08:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x1c6600…
05-02 08:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	196	100¢	$196	0x353708…
05-02 08:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x062d83…
05-02 08:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x138b93…
05-02 08:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	124	99¢	$122	0xc4fce5…
05-02 08:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x6dbe45…
05-02 08:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	124	49¢	$60	0x823bb4…
05-02 07:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xe62ae0…
05-02 07:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x898017…
05-02 07:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x11b41b…
05-02 07:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x59cf2f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	323	$220.6K	7,006	06-01 04:51
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	304	$133.7K	18,297	05-07 01:13
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	289	$113.4K	16,798	05-06 05:34
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	279	$94.6K	26,977	05-06 05:34
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	279	$86.9K	24,447	05-06 05:34
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	278	$216.4K	14,219	05-06 05:34
(anonymous) 0x5e2b…9101	277	$22.2K	2,225	05-06 05:33
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	277	$572	1,308	05-06 16:58