Portly-Fisherman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

91.0%

Resolved

102

Trades

117

lifetime

Volume

$982

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-15 08:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

53% 95% +$3

Politics

35% 88% -$25

Crypto

12% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	2	$68	34	34	+0	Yes	+$0	08-14 00:47
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$61	32	32	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:38
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	08-31 12:18
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	3	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	09-01 02:36
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:21
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	09-22 14:04
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-15 23:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-14 15:36
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$38	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	09-04 06:16
us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	07-01 01:44
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-05 07:58
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$34	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-15 16:09
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	08-14 02:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$33	35	0	+35	No	+$1	09-29 06:33
us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	09-26 11:38
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	08-20 11:41
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$26	31	0	+31	No	-$26	10-15 08:15
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	07-30 03:33
Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	05-13 03:19
will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	09-01 02:49
meta above 680 on march 31 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	03-31 16:23
will deepseek have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	02-25 13:12
Will Solana reach $190 in October?	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	10-07 13:38
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	05-12 00:14
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	02-25 21:24
tsla above 530 on january 30 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-24 02:27
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 115	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	01-17 13:58
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-26 02:19
will bnb dip to 500 in january	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-13 23:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-28 10:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-15 08:15:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0xd0556b…
10-07 13:38:43	Will Solana reach $190 in October?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x4afd34…
10-05 00:21:41	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4b547e…
09-29 06:33:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0x58b6a3…
09-26 11:38:53	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25 20260917	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xb18f9b…
09-26 02:19:11	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8c1cf3…
09-22 14:04:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xd444b9…
09-15 23:08:00	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x729993…
09-14 15:36:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xf1a5ea…
09-04 06:16:39	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xa21202…
09-01 02:49:51	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x5e00ac…
09-01 02:36:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xee2c7c…
09-01 02:32:52	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xc3fbd1…
09-01 02:13:00	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd200e9…
08-31 13:54:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$30	0x6bcd48…
08-31 12:18:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x3b4588…
08-28 15:58:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in August?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x035381…
08-26 18:19:19	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	0¢	$0	0xdd6afa…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x71f971…
08-25 22:44:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x76fa8a…
08-25 22:28:52	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xb268ad…
08-24 02:53:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf97053…
08-23 21:42:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x948d59…
08-23 15:36:55	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x488197…
08-21 16:35:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xaabad8…
08-20 11:41:03	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xcdeb67…
08-18 19:30:13	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x61601f…
08-16 06:53:00	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd5d4c7…
08-15 21:19:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x85f1e4…
08-15 16:09:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	35	99¢	$34	0xf1560e…
08-14 02:13:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xc299e4…
08-14 00:47:21	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x34b5f2…
08-10 13:26:55	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x535321…
08-10 08:25:37	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2b30da…
08-10 01:57:24	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa9a1ba…
08-05 07:58:27	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x3ec061…
08-05 07:35:57	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcceddd…
07-30 03:33:05	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe9920a…
07-29 19:20:18	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe74bdc…
07-28 13:06:31	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x389102…
07-27 23:45:00	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaf1e31…
07-27 13:33:46	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2f5d1a…
07-26 13:33:15	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b89c6…
07-24 07:03:21	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x002aa3…
07-23 09:50:04	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x263352…
07-23 04:44:18	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4296a5…
07-22 09:55:04	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x66097b…
07-05 05:05:20	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd5c3db…
07-05 01:31:23	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x98643c…
07-01 01:44:22	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0xf27807…
05-19 21:01:35	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x131ea6…
05-13 03:19:44	Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x20b6b5…
05-12 11:42:26	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x787f4a…
05-12 00:14:15	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4bb6ae…
05-10 13:26:07	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x830c9d…
05-09 22:48:45	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x143aa7…
05-08 21:00:06	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd97b4b…
05-08 15:08:00	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x13a66f…
05-08 04:04:56	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x54e3a6…
04-28 10:09:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd69b7d…
04-26 00:31:26	Will Solana reach $120 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xd1204a…
04-22 08:14:02	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9a021a…
04-21 10:29:40	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7fc5aa…
04-20 09:24:56	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd4f6a7…
04-20 00:00:42	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x10ab1c…
04-19 01:14:56	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6978dd…
04-18 11:31:14	Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf97b54…
04-17 18:13:18	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0xc6365b…
04-17 04:15:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x54b7ee…
04-16 09:09:24	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x60eb4f…
04-15 02:05:34	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x526834…
04-14 11:59:45	Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xedd66b…
04-14 06:52:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2f7bbb…
04-05 17:00:57	will the reserve bank of new zealand decrease the official cash rate after the april decision	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd2d068…
03-31 16:23:51	meta above 680 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x20e98b…
03-30 08:40:40	googl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xddf346…
03-29 10:38:02	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa18b22…
03-26 14:16:51	tsla above 450 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbb78ed…
03-26 06:43:51	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf0e567…
03-24 05:17:33	will bnb reach 1000 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4f3334…
03-23 22:08:07	tsla above 470 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd055f3…
03-21 14:03:11	amzn above 150 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ec381…
03-21 05:22:55	will hyperliquid dip to 20 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb6912b…
03-18 04:24:05	will xrp dip to 0pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b7d70…
03-17 20:54:39	will the ecb announce a 25 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb31cec…
03-15 22:23:05	will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba383f…
03-13 17:13:41	will zai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x29a7e3…
03-12 22:27:19	will baidu have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x26203d…
03-12 04:19:35	will chainlink dip to 4 in march	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x24dc8b…
03-10 09:56:37	will ethereum reach 3600 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb671be…
03-08 17:20:23	nflx above 60 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x72a5f3…
03-07 12:00:05	will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x038079…
03-04 09:47:25	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd56612…
03-03 20:42:13	nflx above 200 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf0e05c…
02-25 21:24:06	will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4e20ce…
02-25 13:12:12	will deepseek have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd27950…
02-20 11:27:38	aapl above 200 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc64ca3…
02-15 11:49:49	will dogecoin reach 0pt25 in february 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb2b892…
02-15 04:57:21	msft above 510 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaca057…
02-13 11:31:55	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 189	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb4d45b…