Actual-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$477

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,443

lifetime

Volume

$67.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-08 03:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

58% 43% $-396

Other

41% — —

Crypto

1% 33% $-81

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	103	$4.3K	11,618	11,618	+0	open	—	03-13 12:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	67	$4.0K	5,912	4,538	+1,374	open	—	04-17 18:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	9	$3.1K	1,752	1,752	+0	open	—	04-21 17:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	43	$2.8K	4,311	4,470	-158	open	—	04-19 22:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	10	$2.5K	1,718	1,718	+0	open	—	04-07 00:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	15	$2.2K	1,396	1,384	+12	open	—	04-19 22:27
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	23	$2.2K	1,482	1,482	+0	open	—	03-08 21:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	34	$2.1K	20,485	18,787	+1,698	open	—	03-07 09:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.7K	1,320	820	+500	Yes	$-513	05-08 18:32
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	63	$1.5K	7,981	9,081	-1,100	open	—	03-20 21:16
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	6	$1.5K	1,948	448	+1,500	open	—	04-07 18:51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	3	$1.3K	1,022	692	+330	open	—	04-17 15:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	19	$1.0K	4,020	743	+3,277	open	—	03-03 22:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$1.0K	556	553	+2	open	—	04-25 10:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	14	$1.0K	1,433	988	+445	open	—	04-16 21:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	3	$1.0K	557	555	+2	open	—	04-14 15:00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	4	$909	500	500	+0	open	—	02-28 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$897	585	585	+0	open	—	03-29 13:00
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	29	$894	1,073	473	+600	open	—	02-27 16:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$816	608	608	+0	open	—	03-20 13:40
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	31	$779	1,277	1,277	+0	open	—	01-21 16:10
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	8	$767	420	420	+0	open	—	06-20 13:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	12	$744	539	534	+5	open	—	04-12 15:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	3	$708	450	450	+0	open	—	04-09 07:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$678	950	50	+900	open	—	04-07 18:51
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	31	$677	821	722	+99	open	—	03-06 08:32
israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	10	$668	400	400	+0	open	—	02-28 10:41
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	23	$666	501	501	+0	open	—	01-31 19:10
will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	14	$662	1,765	1,491	+274	open	—	03-23 16:29
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	5	$640	400	400	+0	open	—	06-20 11:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 03:10:28	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x8f6ece…
07-08 02:26:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	54	33¢	$18	0x751128…
07-08 02:26:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xcc08ce…
07-08 02:13:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	22	33¢	$7	0xa82641…
07-08 02:07:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x18229f…
07-08 00:43:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x15a22f…
06-25 15:54:05	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x297600…
06-25 15:52:08	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	54	1¢	$1	0x55318f…
06-25 15:13:07	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x08a912…
06-24 01:18:52	will wti reach 80 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xcdf379…
06-23 03:07:04	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x2e0611…
06-20 13:18:38	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	210	91¢	$191	0x5b9e7d…
06-20 11:41:25	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0xdb89b1…
06-20 03:19:19	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x80a074…
06-19 22:03:41	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	72	88¢	$64	0xa5424e…
06-19 21:58:26	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x2425f5…
06-19 21:24:17	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x4dd3d0…
06-19 21:10:11	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x92def1…
06-19 17:52:47	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	110	88¢	$97	0x0e5058…
06-17 14:47:29	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x49a015…
06-17 05:32:28	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x5adc44…
06-16 18:22:34	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x45391a…
06-16 10:56:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	180	98¢	$177	0xe8ed91…
06-15 22:21:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	180	94¢	$170	0x92bbb3…
06-14 09:19:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x368a18…
06-13 06:53:09	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	220	92¢	$203	0xc0d23f…
06-12 15:19:45	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xe4eb55…
06-12 13:14:58	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	70	80¢	$56	0xee99dc…
06-12 09:40:49	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x1bb9b9…
06-12 08:19:12	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x8a6874…
06-11 20:09:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xda95fe…
06-11 19:30:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x6a4356…
06-11 01:03:37	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	75	56¢	$42	0x178121…
06-10 23:16:43	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x6c5001…
06-10 06:53:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x0ef1e8…
06-09 21:14:30	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x35e3ff…
06-09 15:56:15	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xaecce8…
06-09 14:30:06	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x67ff67…
06-08 17:07:00	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4faa4d…
06-08 05:41:18	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x324e29…
06-08 03:33:18	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x8e0b4d…
06-08 03:31:27	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xb15b1a…
06-08 03:31:19	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x094348…
06-08 03:30:52	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0x71ac97…
06-08 03:23:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xb0f23e…
06-07 21:34:09	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x0ac719…
06-05 23:23:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	75	56¢	$42	0x684200…
06-05 15:26:19	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	SELL	22	25¢	$5	0xf9f483…
06-05 14:38:49	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	SELL	18	25¢	$5	0x9cf635…
06-04 09:29:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x7868ed…
06-03 08:13:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x289970…
06-01 15:17:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x238622…
06-01 14:02:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	SELL	25	48¢	$12	0x34d125…
06-01 14:01:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x050ed6…
05-31 15:05:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	400	63¢	$252	0x90d02c…
05-31 06:57:47	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	No	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x5936eb…
05-31 03:56:32	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x39523e…
05-30 14:27:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	84¢	$37	0x11c829…
05-29 22:59:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x18016d…
05-29 15:27:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0x4faaaa…
05-29 14:20:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	SELL	19	70¢	$13	0x15362a…
05-29 04:04:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	SELL	19	69¢	$13	0xde7e25…
05-28 21:42:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xef9c48…
05-28 16:52:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	303	37¢	$112	0x7a6ffe…
05-27 18:03:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x99a2a7…
05-25 16:54:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x81266c…
05-25 10:17:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x19b8ba…
05-24 22:39:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0xfbe5cf…
05-22 00:16:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$42	0xf94eb2…
05-22 00:14:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x609df6…
05-22 00:11:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$4	0x450748…
05-21 23:10:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0xe634f5…
05-21 17:50:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0xe01c2c…
05-21 17:50:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	62	89¢	$56	0x140622…
05-21 17:49:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xedb848…
05-20 15:18:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0x96c653…
05-19 05:26:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x72a730…
05-18 19:01:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x5fb5e4…
05-18 06:53:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xc613b9…
05-17 17:09:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0x757389…
05-17 16:04:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x57563a…
05-17 15:00:25	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x0a940a…
05-17 14:59:18	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x6c6746…
05-17 14:57:53	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x7787b2…
05-17 14:57:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x61d299…
05-17 14:57:14	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xae963e…
05-17 14:56:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xe8887f…
05-17 14:56:48	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x100607…
05-17 14:56:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x23d68f…
05-17 14:56:36	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x47a937…
05-16 01:50:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x949b46…
05-15 22:19:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x382eb2…
05-15 22:19:20	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x543fb7…
05-14 18:51:10	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	8	45¢	$3	0x32d524…
05-14 18:50:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x03eb02…
05-14 18:48:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x813e93…
05-14 11:38:58	Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0x2eb53c…
05-14 09:55:54	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x8d90c9…
05-14 09:14:04	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$3	0x59fc1e…
05-14 09:12:47	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x170487…