Actual-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$71

Unrealized P&L

-$30

Hit rate

65.8%

Resolved

238

Trades

1,586

lifetime

Volume

$73.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$476

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-24 16:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Politics

57% 61% -$212

Other

42% 47% +$112

Crypto

1% 33% +$11

Sports

0% 50% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 25% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes		+400	$300	68¢	$274	-$26	09-29 06:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+300	$207	68¢	$202	-$4	09-30 09:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	103	$4.3K	11,618	11,618	+0	Yes	+$35	03-13 12:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	67	$4.0K	5,912	4,538	+1,374	Yes	-$404	04-17 18:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	9	$3.1K	1,752	1,752	+0	Yes	+$181	04-21 17:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	43	$2.8K	4,311	4,470	-158	Yes	-$616	04-19 22:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	10	$2.5K	1,718	1,718	+0	Yes	+$195	04-07 00:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	15	$2.2K	1,396	1,384	+12	No	+$163	04-19 22:27
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	23	$2.2K	1,482	1,482	+0	Yes	+$100	03-08 21:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	34	$2.1K	20,485	18,787	+1,698	Yes	-$257	03-07 09:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	7	$1.7K	1,320	820	+500	Yes	-$513	05-08 18:32
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	63	$1.5K	7,981	9,081	-1,100	No	-$6	03-20 21:16
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	6	$1.5K	1,948	448	+1,500	Yes	+$551	04-07 18:51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	3	$1.3K	1,022	692	+330	Yes	+$57	04-17 15:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	19	$1.0K	4,020	743	+3,277	Yes	-$133	03-03 22:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	2	$1.0K	556	553	+2	No	+$40	04-25 10:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	14	$1.0K	1,433	988	+445	Yes	+$132	04-16 21:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	3	$1.0K	557	555	+2	No	+$32	04-14 15:00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	4	$909	500	500	+0	Yes	+$61	02-28 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	5	$897	585	585	+0	Yes	+$87	03-29 13:00
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	29	$894	1,073	473	+600	Yes	+$262	02-27 16:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	22	$820	800	800	+0	open	—	05-09 16:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$816	608	608	+0	No	+$71	03-20 13:40
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	31	$779	1,277	1,277	+0	No	-$34	01-21 16:10
will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	8	$767	420	420	+0	No	-$13	06-20 13:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	12	$744	539	534	+5	Yes	+$80	04-12 15:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	3	$708	450	450	+0	Yes	+$48	04-09 07:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$678	950	50	+900	Yes	-$608	04-07 18:51
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	31	$677	821	722	+99	No	+$286	03-06 08:32
israel x iran ceasefire broken by june 30 2026 438 193	10	$668	400	400	+0	Yes	+$130	02-28 10:41
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	23	$666	501	501	+0	No	+$56	01-31 19:10
will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	14	$662	1,765	1,491	+274	Yes	-$137	03-23 16:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:11:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5cb61e…
10-01 04:47:09	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	150	18¢	$27	0xd55a8e…
09-30 19:33:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	170	60¢	$102	0x97ee2a…
09-30 16:38:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	38¢	$95	0xce2f04…
09-30 09:25:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	300	69¢	$207	0x423097…
09-29 06:58:23	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x9568fe…
09-29 06:13:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x70c7d2…
09-29 06:13:20	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6ef53a…
09-29 05:37:36	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	347	75¢	$261	0x34e07d…
09-29 04:43:17	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	31	75¢	$23	0x0ede87…
09-16 12:20:37	Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	349	100¢	$348	0x010f0b…
09-15 10:18:52	Will the Liberals (L) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	188	100¢	$188	0x96e094…
09-15 05:27:10	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0xac4e1c…
09-15 02:56:03	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	175	71¢	$125	0x8026fd…
09-13 11:39:25	Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	86	90¢	$77	0x560701…
09-12 07:58:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x295da1…
09-12 07:58:10	Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	97	88¢	$85	0x4a7cfd…
09-12 07:50:55	Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	167	89¢	$148	0x192c1b…
09-12 07:13:16	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	51	69¢	$35	0x13bd51…
09-12 07:00:42	Will the Liberals (L) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	120	78¢	$93	0x241e72…
09-12 06:59:55	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x6ad4d6…
09-12 06:59:00	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0xa31bee…
09-12 06:57:13	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	26	70¢	$18	0xb768ba…
09-12 06:55:40	Will the Liberals (L) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	68	78¢	$53	0x8a6d84…
09-12 06:54:34	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0xe99fa7…
09-02 14:17:09	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	29	73¢	$21	0x6f662d…
09-02 14:13:42	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x7496a1…
09-02 14:12:25	Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x8acee4…
08-03 16:10:42	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0xf4b733…
08-03 15:55:05	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x80abbc…
08-03 14:36:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	28	63¢	$18	0x6b7a8d…
08-03 14:26:44	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x018258…
08-03 13:39:36	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x2e8420…
08-03 12:57:54	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0x43f049…
08-03 11:48:59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	255	63¢	$160	0x01e4ed…
07-31 20:40:11	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xbaab23…
07-27 13:41:31	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x2f0008…
07-08 03:10:28	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0x8f6ece…
07-08 02:26:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	54	33¢	$18	0x751128…
07-08 02:26:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xcc08ce…
07-08 02:13:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	22	33¢	$7	0xa82641…
07-08 02:07:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x18229f…
07-08 00:43:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x15a22f…
06-29 21:12:47	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$18	0xf11bb3…
06-26 00:26:40	Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x8e7332…
06-25 15:54:05	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x297600…
06-25 15:52:08	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	54	1¢	$1	0x55318f…
06-25 15:13:07	will wti dip to 65 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x08a912…
06-24 01:18:52	will wti reach 80 by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xcdf379…
06-23 03:07:04	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x2e0611…
06-20 13:18:38	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	210	91¢	$191	0x5b9e7d…
06-20 11:41:25	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0xdb89b1…
06-20 03:19:19	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x80a074…
06-19 22:03:41	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	72	88¢	$64	0xa5424e…
06-19 21:58:26	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x2425f5…
06-19 21:24:17	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x4dd3d0…
06-19 21:10:11	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x92def1…
06-19 17:52:47	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	SELL	110	88¢	$97	0x0e5058…
06-18 15:22:49	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	22	30¢	$7	0x007f37…
06-17 14:47:29	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x49a015…
06-17 05:32:28	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x5adc44…
06-17 04:02:31	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0x71cee3…
06-16 18:22:34	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x45391a…
06-16 10:56:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	180	98¢	$177	0xe8ed91…
06-15 22:21:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	180	94¢	$170	0x92bbb3…
06-14 12:26:37	Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x447334…
06-14 09:19:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x368a18…
06-13 06:53:09	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	220	92¢	$203	0xc0d23f…
06-12 23:56:43	Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x07400a…
06-12 15:19:45	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xe4eb55…
06-12 13:14:58	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	70	80¢	$56	0xee99dc…
06-12 09:40:49	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x1bb9b9…
06-12 08:19:12	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x8a6874…
06-11 20:09:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xda95fe…
06-11 19:30:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x6a4356…
06-11 18:50:42	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x68b5c5…
06-11 11:39:51	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x91ef02…
06-11 11:27:51	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$1	0xfba9a8…
06-11 11:25:36	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	68	2¢	$2	0x4a2bba…
06-11 01:03:37	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	SELL	75	56¢	$42	0x178121…
06-10 23:16:43	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x6c5001…
06-10 06:53:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x0ef1e8…
06-09 21:14:30	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x35e3ff…
06-09 15:56:15	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xaecce8…
06-09 14:30:06	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x67ff67…
06-09 09:48:30	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	152	94¢	$142	0xaef35e…
06-08 17:07:00	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4faa4d…
06-08 05:41:18	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x324e29…
06-08 03:33:18	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x8e0b4d…
06-08 03:31:27	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xb15b1a…
06-08 03:31:19	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x094348…
06-08 03:30:52	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0x71ac97…
06-08 03:23:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xb0f23e…
06-07 21:34:09	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x0ac719…
06-05 23:23:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	75	56¢	$42	0x684200…
06-05 15:26:19	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	SELL	22	25¢	$5	0xf9f483…
06-05 14:38:49	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 30	No	SELL	18	25¢	$5	0x9cf635…
06-04 09:29:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x7868ed…
06-03 08:13:34	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x289970…
06-01 15:17:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x238622…