Puzzled-Model — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.8%

Resolved

Trades

110

lifetime

Volume

$1.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 06-04 22:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 33% $-11

Other

10% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	4	$88	215	215	+0	open	—	05-24 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$87	58	58	+0	open	—	05-28 14:50
btc updown 15m 1780561800	2	$82	61	61	+0	open	—	06-04 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	3	$64	54	54	+0	open	—	05-28 14:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	5	$61	42	42	+0	open	—	05-28 14:40
btc updown 15m 1780560900	2	$50	108	0	+108	open	—	06-04 08:17
Will Palermo achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	2	$41	81	80	+2	open	—	05-17 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$40	39	39	+0	open	—	06-02 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	2	$39	54	54	+0	open	—	05-28 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$38	29	29	+0	Down	+$18	05-11 14:33
btc updown 15m 1780562700	1	$31	70	0	+70	open	—	06-04 08:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	1	$30	129	0	+129	open	—	05-28 14:51
btc updown 4h 1780574400	1	$20	65	0	+65	open	—	06-04 13:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25?	1	$20	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	04-25 16:20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27?	1	$20	154	0	+154	open	—	04-26 09:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$20	65	0	+65	open	—	04-26 09:45
btc updown 5m 1780594800	1	$20	48	0	+48	open	—	06-04 17:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET	1	$20	91	0	+91	open	—	06-03 18:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$20	57	0	+57	open	—	04-25 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	04-25 17:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	2	$20	67	0	+67	open	—	04-26 09:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	1	$19	48	0	+48	open	—	04-26 10:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$19	49	0	+49	Up	$-19	05-11 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$18	46	0	+46	open	—	06-02 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$17	95	0	+95	open	—	04-26 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$17	59	0	+59	Down	$-17	05-11 12:26
btc updown 5m 1780560600	1	$15	56	0	+56	open	—	06-04 08:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$15	33	0	+33	Up	+$18	05-11 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$13	41	0	+41	Up	$-13	05-11 13:07
btc updown 5m 1780613100	1	$13	34	0	+34	open	—	06-04 22:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 22:45:21	btc updown 5m 1780613100	Down	BUY	34	37¢	$13	0xb66e1e…
06-04 17:43:49	btc updown 5m 1780594800	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x2444c8…
06-04 17:20:13	btc updown 15m 1780593300	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x6d630c…
06-04 13:20:45	btc updown 4h 1780574400	Down	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x28aad3…
06-04 08:45:48	btc updown 15m 1780562700	Down	BUY	70	44¢	$31	0x35176b…
06-04 08:44:01	btc updown 15m 1780561800	Down	SELL	61	94¢	$57	0xebd303…
06-04 08:30:22	btc updown 15m 1780561800	Down	BUY	61	41¢	$25	0x99ad18…
06-04 08:17:30	btc updown 15m 1780560900	Down	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0x8b9489…
06-04 08:16:31	btc updown 15m 1780560900	Down	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x1103b0…
06-04 08:10:22	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Down	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x7d4ab9…
06-03 18:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xdb86fe…
06-03 15:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc2aea6…
06-03 15:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	28¢	$8	0x54f819…
06-02 21:03:09	Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x699d3e…
06-02 21:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	23	35¢	$8	0xf9f42c…
06-02 20:52:39	Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xda873b…
06-02 20:52:13	Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x1f0756…
06-02 20:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	57	12¢	$7	0xaed50c…
06-02 20:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	46	39¢	$18	0x53f71f…
06-02 20:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	39	84¢	$33	0x75c187…
06-02 20:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0xfd1f2e…
06-02 09:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc6a487…
05-29 11:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x17a1c8…
05-29 11:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x5ed99d…
05-29 11:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x413d14…
05-29 08:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0x5970f2…
05-29 06:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x424c42…
05-28 16:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xc54959…
05-28 15:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x353ac6…
05-28 14:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xa101c1…
05-28 14:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	SELL	54	17¢	$9	0xcbbb96…
05-28 14:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	129	23¢	$30	0x439757…
05-28 14:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0x34a177…
05-28 14:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x8b21aa…
05-28 14:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x22f718…
05-28 14:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xa10606…
05-28 14:41:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x40f768…
05-28 14:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x4b903d…
05-28 14:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0xbea679…
05-28 14:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe029ad…
05-28 14:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x72daea…
05-28 14:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x952b4a…
05-28 14:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x594ff3…
05-28 14:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf7eea3…
05-28 14:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x1f0d74…
05-28 14:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xf02134…
05-28 14:23:59	Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$1	0x1462c4…
05-27 19:15:10	Will Donald Trump dance on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xef85d5…
05-24 14:54:23	Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	62	34¢	$21	0x41669e…
05-21 12:43:01	Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	152	34¢	$52	0x6307fb…
05-17 19:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x8513c2…
05-17 19:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xb07870…
05-17 19:14:27	Will Palermo achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	SELL	80	16¢	$13	0xa50bd8…
05-14 18:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x2205c1…
05-14 15:49:04	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0xcef441…
05-14 15:46:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x15f8c8…
05-14 15:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x884368…
05-13 13:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x9b1661…
05-13 13:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0x24f701…
05-11 15:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x4c4b65…
05-11 15:20:53	Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0xce3918…
05-11 15:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x9d0ec3…
05-11 15:15:08	Will Catanzaro achieve promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026-27 season?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xdea1d1…
05-11 14:51:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?	Yes	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xc66263…
05-11 14:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x200d65…
05-11 14:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x173654…
05-11 14:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	49	38¢	$19	0x751d94…
05-11 14:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$28	0xb6c864…
05-11 14:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xf71f08…
05-11 14:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x7b8a8b…
05-11 14:21:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x041ae1…
05-11 14:19:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	126	3¢	$4	0x59480d…
05-11 13:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x2df706…
05-11 13:16:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	465	1¢	$5	0x0c0378…
05-11 13:10:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x32a0ea…
05-11 13:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	41	32¢	$13	0x9f34c2…
05-11 12:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0x96ae64…
05-11 12:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	59	29¢	$17	0xe8e13c…
05-11 12:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x4e14cb…
05-11 12:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x3e0559…
05-11 12:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xc84860…
05-11 12:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	41	22¢	$9	0xcee2bf…
05-11 12:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x8b306b…
05-03 20:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x67adef…
05-03 20:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x8c96ce…
04-27 22:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x9b9d91…
04-27 22:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x6eb046…
04-26 11:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	49¢	$9	0x6de6cc…
04-26 10:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x84fe85…
04-26 10:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0x8e6ab5…
04-26 10:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xbeeb46…
04-26 10:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xdba1d7…
04-26 10:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0xe3436e…
04-26 10:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0x9958e8…
04-26 10:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x9883ed…
04-26 09:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb4260a…
04-26 09:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x3d177e…
04-26 09:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x2b8034…
04-26 09:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x2c345f…
04-26 09:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0xd9601d…