Dense-Standoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$113.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

13,508

Trades

134,218

lifetime

Volume

$1.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$30

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 02:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 277 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 55% +$117,906

Other

12% 36% -$1,601

Sports

5% 58% -$2,766

Politics

1% 48% +$133

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 4606 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-20	-$19	97¢	$-20	-$1	06-22 20:01
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-10	-$10	99¢	$-10	$0	06-22 20:01
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	+10	$4	1¢	$0	-$4	08-21 08:05
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+5	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	08-20 15:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	112	$7.4K	13,044	288	+12,756	Up	+$2,057	09-11 03:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 23:55 UTC	207	$5.9K	11,234	0	+11,234	Up	-$56	09-29 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	64	$5.5K	10,498	0	+10,498	Up	-$528	09-12 04:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 21:25 UTC	167	$5.3K	9,940	0	+9,940	Up	-$366	09-24 21:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 01:25 UTC	168	$5.3K	9,881	0	+9,881	Down	-$231	09-29 01:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 21:15 UTC	143	$5.2K	10,226	0	+10,226	Up	+$84	09-24 21:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	77	$4.8K	3,376	3,211	+165	Down	+$1,475	10-03 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 10:00 UTC	84	$4.8K	3,426	3,422	+3	Up	+$702	09-27 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	72	$4.4K	9,552	0	+9,552	Up	-$999	09-07 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	136	$4.3K	8,702	0	+8,702	Down	-$26	09-29 01:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-01 01:20 UTC	204	$4.3K	8,092	0	+8,092	Up	-$255	10-01 01:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 20:10 UTC	131	$4.1K	8,326	0	+8,326	Down	+$12	09-24 20:12
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	256	$3.9K	4,829	4,524	+305	Yes	+$1,060	05-22 15:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	100	$3.8K	7,184	0	+7,184	Up	+$674	09-05 23:44
nba okc phx 2026 01 04	18	$3.7K	4,407	525	+3,882	Suns	-$3,567	01-05 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	108	$3.6K	7,146	0	+7,146	Up	-$70	09-24 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	60	$3.6K	8,049	0	+8,049	Down	-$855	09-08 00:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 04:15 UTC	113	$3.6K	3,456	1,779	+1,677	Down	-$55	08-27 04:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-27 18:45 UTC	52	$3.5K	6,019	0	+6,019	Up	+$2,503	09-27 18:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 05:00 UTC	42	$3.5K	6,314	608	+5,706	Up	+$209	08-31 05:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-25 05:10 UTC	171	$3.3K	5,656	969	+4,687	Down	+$48	08-25 05:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 23:55 UTC	115	$3.2K	6,136	0	+6,136	Down	-$56	09-28 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	96	$3.2K	6,134	0	+6,134	Up	-$966	09-05 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	113	$3.2K	6,224	0	+6,224	Down	-$93	09-29 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	102	$3.1K	5,245	918	+4,327	Down	+$1,299	09-09 01:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 00:15 UTC	114	$3.0K	8,209	0	+8,209	Down	+$5,160	10-04 00:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	254	$3.0K	6,117	0	+6,117	Up	+$120	10-02 02:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-24 21:20 UTC	109	$3.0K	5,958	0	+5,958	Down	+$72	09-24 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	79	$2.9K	4,500	0	+4,500	Up	+$405	10-25 21:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 07:55 UTC	132	$2.9K	5,650	0	+5,650	Up	+$416	09-18 07:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	170	41¢	$70	0x9350ea…
10-27 02:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	117	42¢	$49	0x593a45…
10-27 02:36:39	Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)	Nuggets	BUY	132	50¢	$66	0xf4043b…
10-27 02:21:27	Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	41	46¢	$19	0xa37b8b…
10-27 02:21:12	Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	88	46¢	$41	0x9b1504…
10-27 02:20:57	Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5	Under	BUY	88	46¢	$41	0x12490b…
10-27 02:15:47	Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd57ea6…
10-27 02:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	62	33¢	$20	0x1de1db…
10-27 02:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xf6e3ac…
10-27 02:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0xdd7a03…
10-27 02:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0xbb40bf…
10-27 02:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	74	36¢	$27	0x49ac20…
10-27 02:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$5	0x129dd3…
10-27 02:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x861ecb…
10-27 02:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	85	32¢	$27	0x24f319…
10-27 02:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	37¢	$9	0xe48170…
10-27 02:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	77	36¢	$28	0x413935…
10-27 02:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0x59d606…
10-27 02:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	53	30¢	$16	0x84e43d…
10-27 02:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	178	31¢	$55	0xc7c496…
10-27 01:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	426	28¢	$119	0x14f102…
10-27 01:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	392	33¢	$131	0x8bb2a9…
10-27 01:09:59	Spread: Rockets (-6.5)	Rockets	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xb996bc…
10-27 01:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	240	22¢	$53	0x6391ae…
10-27 01:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	250	16¢	$41	0x8ad560…
10-27 00:50:20	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Atlanta Dream	BUY	53	46¢	$24	0x458a25…
10-27 00:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	250	39¢	$97	0x18b038…
10-27 00:28:39	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 244.5	Over	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x4bed7f…
10-27 00:28:39	Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 242.5	Over	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x201d26…
10-27 00:23:33	Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 229.5	Under	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x489ce9…
10-27 00:17:39	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	110	56¢	$61	0x88ba05…
10-27 00:05:06	Spread: Heat (-8.5)	Heat	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0x4bc6c6…
10-26 23:58:53	Mavericks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x710901…
10-26 23:57:18	Spread: Hornets (-4.5)	Hornets	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0xad23d9…
10-26 23:56:33	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5	Under	BUY	68	46¢	$31	0x838e0f…
10-26 23:56:18	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5	Under	BUY	144	46¢	$66	0xd2e27e…
10-26 23:55:41	Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Timberwolves	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xc3c3bb…
10-26 23:54:27	Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5	Under	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x9bec28…
10-26 23:52:05	Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 207.5	Under	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x15873b…
10-26 23:46:56	Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 207.5	Under	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x7bac41…
10-26 23:44:15	Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x52d78e…
10-26 22:47:36	Counter-Strike: gotei 5 vs underw0rld (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group C	gotei 5	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xba6103…
10-26 21:54:47	Counter-Strike: gotei 5 vs underw0rld - Map 2 Winner	gotei 5	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x265404…
10-26 21:51:29	Counter-Strike: gotei 5 vs underw0rld (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group C	gotei 5	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x8def8e…
10-26 20:53:06	Counter-Strike: gotei 5 vs underw0rld - Map 1 Winner	gotei 5	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x5f5bdd…
10-26 20:25:39	Counter-Strike: gotei 5 vs underw0rld - Map 1 Winner	underw0rld	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x682b6c…
10-26 16:55:48	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Natus Vincere	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x462a03…
10-26 13:19:23	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xb9deef…
10-26 13:15:21	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Vitality	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0xee716a…
10-26 11:50:59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Vitality	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x1e05aa…
10-26 11:08:03	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0x12f2ee…
10-26 10:42:09	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xf18bc4…
10-26 01:47:39	Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x8dd4e9…
10-26 01:43:54	Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x47b2f2…
10-26 01:43:20	Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x5fd77b…
10-26 01:32:17	Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x3a1e00…
10-26 01:23:53	Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	101	51¢	$51	0x3fd8a2…
10-26 00:23:14	Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5	Under	BUY	0	66¢	$0	0x01c157…
10-26 00:02:38	Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xa3e315…
10-26 00:01:21	Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5	Over	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x9fbae5…
10-25 23:58:48	Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5	Over	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x15ead9…
10-25 23:56:21	Pistons vs. 76ers	Pistons	BUY	115	76¢	$87	0x58d924…
10-25 23:53:12	Pistons vs. 76ers	Pistons	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0xcea353…
10-25 23:52:54	Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xfd8994…
10-25 23:52:47	Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x485063…
10-25 23:50:50	Spread: Pistons (-8.5)	Pistons	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x583c49…
10-25 23:49:29	Magic vs. Knicks	Magic	BUY	64	24¢	$15	0x8c5946…
10-25 23:49:08	Magic vs. Knicks	Magic	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x6b1d22…
10-25 23:48:45	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	Magic	BUY	73	53¢	$39	0x49682c…
10-25 23:34:30	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Raptors	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x1c42fa…
10-25 23:31:26	Spread: Thunder (-13.5)	Clippers	BUY	88	43¢	$38	0x1d1d3b…
10-25 23:29:39	Spread: Knicks (-12.5)	Magic	BUY	68	51¢	$35	0xac25b5…
10-25 23:28:42	Spread: Thunder (-22.5)	Clippers	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xa69f64…
10-25 23:24:48	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	Magic	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x03d9de…
10-25 23:17:29	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Clippers	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0x4fd09d…
10-25 23:13:21	Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5	Over	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xed18e6…
10-25 22:52:59	Spread: Pacers (-4.5)	Pacers	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0x249095…
10-25 22:52:44	Spread: Pacers (-4.5)	Pacers	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0xb6eff1…
10-25 22:52:06	Pacers vs. Nets	Pacers	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x5f18a2…
10-25 22:49:24	Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 227.5	Under	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x22fcf5…
10-25 22:48:29	Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5	Over	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x1bb861…
10-25 22:47:50	Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5	Over	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x35bb50…
10-25 22:37:03	Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x357360…
10-25 22:32:53	Spread: Pacers (-6.5)	Pacers	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xd64990…
10-25 21:49:21	Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 251.5	Over	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x25fcbc…
10-25 21:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x9585f2…
10-25 21:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	139	86¢	$119	0xeb977a…
10-25 21:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	38	76¢	$29	0x6fac4a…
10-25 21:32:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x468c28…
10-25 21:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	200	72¢	$143	0x862411…
10-25 21:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	55	80¢	$44	0x9a38ee…
10-25 21:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	58	78¢	$46	0x11c2ea…
10-25 21:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x2db978…
10-25 21:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	56	73¢	$41	0x4e016b…
10-25 21:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	57	73¢	$42	0x7651ab…
10-25 21:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	52	71¢	$37	0x1893df…
10-25 21:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	54	71¢	$38	0x12e2b8…
10-25 21:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	53	71¢	$38	0xf6e953…
10-25 21:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	58	65¢	$38	0x682560…
10-25 21:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	200	60¢	$121	0x5e4e6e…