Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$376

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

314

Trades

1,586

lifetime

Volume

$148.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

$170

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-29 15:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

95% 53% +$973

Sports

3% 70% -$297

Politics

1% 38% -$265

Tech

0% 60% +$6

Crypto

0% 59% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	+52	$31	66¢	$35	+$4	10-29 15:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+69	$33	44¢	$31	-$2	10-28 10:31
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+52	$32	57¢	$30	-$3	10-29 15:48
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	+107	$43	20¢	$22	-$21	10-29 15:48
another fed rate hike in 2026	No	+62	$11	28¢	$17	+$6	10-16 06:33
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	+148	$11	12¢	$17	+$6	10-06 16:24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+63	$30	18¢	$11	-$19	10-29 15:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$14	42¢	$5	-$9	10-06 19:41
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+4	$2	57¢	$2	+$0	10-28 20:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	3	$23.3K	13,507	13,507	+0	Spain	+$3,613	07-10 21:02
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	5	$21.8K	12,275	12,275	+0	France	+$2,701	07-09 22:02
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	13	$10.6K	5,486	5,486	+0	Argentina	+$370	07-04 00:52
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	4	$9.9K	10,713	10,713	+0	England	-$5,049	07-18 22:49
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	16	$9.5K	15,519	0	+15,519	Spain	+$6,047	07-19 19:44
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	7	$5.9K	5,812	5,812	+0	Argentina	-$4,060	07-07 17:31
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	9	$5.7K	3,327	3,327	+0	Morocco	+$995	07-04 19:09
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	3	$5.3K	3,968	2,930	+1,038	England	+$591	07-11 23:48
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	7	$5.0K	5,427	0	+5,427	France	+$380	07-04 22:46
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	14	$4.8K	3,968	3,968	+0	England	+$657	07-06 02:30
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	12	$4.0K	6,152	4,914	+1,238	Norway	-$3,862	07-05 22:03
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	4	$3.2K	1,867	1,867	+0	Argentina	+$439	07-12 03:46
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	4	$3.1K	1,649	1,649	+0	England	+$191	07-01 18:01
fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	3	$2.9K	4,315	0	+4,315	Spain	+$1,424	07-06 13:40
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	8	$2.4K	1,709	1,342	+367	Yes	+$255	06-29 19:09
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	4	$2.2K	3,294	3,294	+0	No	-$1,491	07-18 22:25
fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 team to advance	5	$2.0K	2,493	30	+2,463	Colombia	+$471	07-04 01:50
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	8	$2.0K	1,246	1,246	+0	Yes	+$518	07-06 03:17
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	6	$1.9K	1,665	1,665	+0	Egypt	-$142	07-03 20:52
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	3	$1.6K	1,893	0	+1,893	Spain	+$260	07-02 18:51
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	3	$1.6K	1,874	0	+1,874	Paraguay	-$1,630	06-29 19:29
fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team to advance	1	$1.4K	1,714	0	+1,714	United States	+$274	07-01 23:15
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	4	$1.2K	1,322	0	+1,322	France	+$145	06-30 19:02
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	4	$1.1K	1,877	1,835	+43	Belgium	-$876	07-07 01:27
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.0K	854	854	+0	Yes	+$7	07-18 23:05
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	3	$892	1,459	2	+1,457	Switzerland	-$887	07-07 22:53
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	2	$752	459	459	+0	Norway	+$165	06-30 19:01
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31?	5	$505	275	275	+0	Yes	+$27	08-31 21:08
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	61	$483	912	905	+7	No	-$282	09-16 17:17
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-30?	4	$453	241	241	+0	Yes	+$29	08-30 16:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 15:49:50	Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x98f9a6…
10-29 15:49:07	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x796fee…
10-29 15:48:52	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x47fa5e…
10-29 15:48:34	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0a253b…
10-29 15:47:28	Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x2181f5…
10-29 15:46:59	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	62	19¢	$12	0x4e7277…
10-28 20:53:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x223c32…
10-28 20:51:01	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xee6b5c…
10-28 20:50:40	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xbea830…
10-28 20:49:59	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xe44fe6…
10-28 20:49:37	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x76ba1e…
10-28 20:47:37	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf0f1c4…
10-28 20:46:37	Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x673c41…
10-28 20:45:59	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0xc13f9f…
10-28 20:44:58	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xff4060…
10-28 20:44:31	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x2d929e…
10-28 20:44:10	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x8854cd…
10-28 14:06:41	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xc711cf…
10-28 14:06:16	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x31bcec…
10-28 14:05:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	44	23¢	$10	0x8b1332…
10-28 14:02:29	Will Warsh say "Unchanged" or "Dissent" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x03c510…
10-28 13:58:52	Will Warsh say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x18db0f…
10-28 13:58:25	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	84¢	$12	0x20e561…
10-28 13:54:56	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xc79ee1…
10-28 13:50:13	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x1179d1…
10-28 13:49:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	85¢	$18	0x9c74db…
10-28 10:32:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x0d9000…
10-28 10:32:20	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xeb7f45…
10-28 10:31:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x53eb18…
10-28 10:31:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x583dba…
10-28 10:30:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x6f7183…
10-28 10:30:13	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$21	0x809bda…
10-27 08:57:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0x0c8930…
10-27 08:54:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5e4dc0…
10-26 15:57:59	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x52f75b…
10-26 15:56:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x9796e3…
10-25 22:13:18	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xa94bdd…
10-25 22:11:44	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x577821…
10-25 22:11:20	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x72f5b3…
10-25 22:11:00	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x279d76…
10-25 22:09:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x67ef5d…
10-25 22:08:33	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xed1776…
10-25 22:07:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$17	0x7f7e8f…
10-25 22:07:30	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc4f9b7…
10-25 22:06:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x25f5a0…
10-25 22:06:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xe47098…
10-25 22:03:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x85ce7d…
10-25 07:38:08	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$15	0x20d870…
10-25 07:37:59	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	26	59¢	$15	0x6dbd95…
10-22 12:06:35	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x79631f…
10-22 12:05:56	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6675bc…
10-22 12:05:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0x23e3d3…
10-22 12:04:42	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x48d273…
10-22 12:04:29	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x7e15c8…
10-22 12:04:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	86¢	$56	0xc6182b…
10-22 12:03:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	103	89¢	$92	0x2f0bca…
10-19 10:27:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0xbb8ea3…
10-19 10:27:08	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x0b8bde…
10-18 04:04:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x0c388f…
10-18 04:03:17	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xebfb81…
10-18 03:57:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xe613c3…
10-16 06:39:45	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x49a08c…
10-16 06:37:00	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x9a6815…
10-16 06:36:46	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x430ae4…
10-16 06:33:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x5e3fe2…
10-16 06:33:00	another fed rate hike in 2026	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xad213c…
10-16 06:32:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xcdf59e…
10-16 06:32:04	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x8faec1…
10-16 06:31:48	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0xe55280…
10-16 06:31:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x7068cc…
10-16 06:30:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xbe2735…
10-16 04:15:54	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd18033…
10-16 03:51:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xca102b…
10-16 03:51:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x019ad5…
10-16 03:51:18	another fed rate hike in 2026	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x3f0311…
10-16 03:50:40	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xbd434f…
10-16 03:49:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x929f66…
10-16 03:48:42	another fed rate hike in 2026	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe51416…
10-16 03:48:18	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	78¢	$51	0xf4946f…
10-15 13:51:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0xa6bb02…
10-15 13:50:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	29	32¢	$9	0x4b3a99…
10-15 13:48:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x629e09…
10-15 13:32:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	73¢	$33	0x18db81…
10-15 13:32:13	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	180	74¢	$133	0xf28815…
10-15 08:25:22	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	89¢	$80	0x751b4f…
10-15 08:24:46	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	34	76¢	$26	0x3e9c76…
10-15 08:24:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	80¢	$8	0x7c5851…
10-15 08:23:43	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0x60fcb3…
10-15 08:23:23	trump publicly insults warsh by november 30	No	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x95ec2a…
10-15 08:23:10	Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x230646…
10-15 08:22:40	will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 23 2026	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x4c5c08…
10-15 08:21:50	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	204	91¢	$185	0xf2808d…
10-14 12:58:57	another fed rate hike in 2026	No	SELL	47	12¢	$6	0x472057…
10-13 22:09:09	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x323a54…
10-13 22:08:18	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x236e5b…
10-13 22:07:58	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x138f44…
10-13 22:07:46	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x105e9a…
10-13 22:07:31	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xb5883d…
10-13 22:07:16	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x4da1fb…
10-13 22:05:58	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x869919…