Bumpy-Conscience — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$3.43K

Unrealized P&L

+$29

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved (90d)

421

Trades (90d)

935

2,890 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$30.7K

$105.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$315

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 213 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 47% -$2,021

Other

22% 60% +$2,649

Politics

10% 51% +$568

Tech

1% 69% +$340

Sports

0% 75% +$50

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+111	$72	82¢	$91	+$19	10-05 09:41
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+62	$50	96¢	$59	+$9	10-02 07:00
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+120	$36	40¢	$47	+$11	09-28 06:19
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+38	$27	96¢	$36	+$9	09-30 09:55
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+77	$39	44¢	$33	-$6	10-10 16:27
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	+34	$22	66¢	$22	+$0	10-25 21:17
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+51	$30	29¢	$15	-$15	09-07 20:56
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+16	$10	66¢	$11	+$1	10-11 17:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:55 UTC	2	$1.8K	2,015	+2,015	Up	-$1,796	04-06 19:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:25 UTC	1	$1.5K	3,095	+3,095	Down	-$1,530	04-01 11:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:50 UTC	3	$1.4K	2,989	+2,989	Up	-$1,361	04-01 11:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 14:35 UTC	3	$1.3K	3,117	+3,117	Down	+$1,832	04-06 14:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 15:45 UTC	3	$1.3K	3,037	+3,037	Down	-$1,280	04-14 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:15 UTC	3	$1.3K	2,683	+2,683	Up	-$1,280	04-06 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 17:15 UTC	2	$1.3K	3,100	+3,100	Down	+$1,831	04-01 17:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:25 UTC	3	$1.2K	2,491	+2,491	Up	+$1,311	04-06 19:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 11:15 UTC	1	$1.0K	2,179	+2,179	Up	+$1,155	03-12 11:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:05 UTC	2	$1.0K	2,388	+2,388	Down	-$1,024	04-01 11:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 13:30 UTC	2	$800	1,777	+1,777	Up	+$977	04-01 13:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 17:10 UTC	1	$800	1,902	+1,902	Down	-$800	04-01 17:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 15:05 UTC	1	$800	1,765	+1,765	Down	+$965	04-01 15:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 15:25 UTC	2	$800	2,019	+2,019	Down	+$1,219	04-01 15:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 16:10 UTC	2	$800	1,935	+1,935	Down	+$1,135	04-01 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 20:10 UTC	2	$800	1,948	+1,948	Down	+$1,148	04-01 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 19:30 UTC	2	$800	1,803	+1,803	Down	+$1,003	04-01 19:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 13:35 UTC	2	$640	1,638	+1,638	Down	+$998	04-03 13:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 08:20 UTC	1	$640	1,382	+1,382	Down	+$742	04-02 08:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 05:55 UTC	2	$640	1,320	+1,320	Up	-$640	04-04 05:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:10 UTC	2	$640	1,314	+1,314	Up	-$640	04-06 19:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 15:30 UTC	1	$640	1,818	+1,818	Up	-$640	04-14 15:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 14:30 UTC	1	$640	1,602	+1,602	Up	-$640	04-06 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 19:50 UTC	1	$640	1,521	+1,521	Down	+$881	04-03 19:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 08:55 UTC	3	$640	1,795	+1,795	Up	-$640	04-04 08:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:20 UTC	1	$589	1,421	+1,421	Up	+$831	04-01 11:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:35 UTC	1	$512	1,055	+1,055	Up	+$543	03-11 12:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:00 UTC	1	$512	1,253	+1,253	Down	-$512	04-01 11:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 15:10 UTC	1	$512	1,228	+1,228	Up	+$716	03-10 15:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 11:00 UTC	1	$512	1,159	+1,159	Up	-$512	03-12 11:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:47:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-01 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	41	70¢	$29	0x6f605f…
10-28 14:55:07	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	71¢	$31	0xf6c85b…
10-28 11:06:25	Will Deadlock win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	86	82¢	$71	0x3c0b59…
10-28 10:49:14	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	95	22¢	$21	0x8262ba…
10-28 10:42:32	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	318	5¢	$16	0x0744b5…
10-28 10:28:29	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	39	72¢	$28	0x49d426…
10-28 10:24:32	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?	Yes	BUY	196	36¢	$71	0xf784ed…
10-28 10:07:56	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	27¢	$18	0xf3ea40…
10-28 10:03:35	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 750,000 and 800,000?	Yes	BUY	131	18¢	$24	0x4f200e…
10-28 09:48:07	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xb158a4…
10-28 09:21:05	Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	75	52¢	$39	0x58f08a…
10-28 09:08:47	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	92	77¢	$71	0xc63d23…
10-28 08:49:44	Manchester City punishment announced by December 18?	No	BUY	26	79¢	$20	0x198bf5…
10-28 08:29:05	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	68	53¢	$36	0xe14a7a…
10-28 08:27:19	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	SELL	116	73¢	$85	0x52ca26…
10-28 08:23:37	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xf21930…
10-28 08:17:23	Will Tradeweb (TW) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	94	52¢	$49	0xcf1904…
10-27 21:44:12	Colorado passes ballot measure banning underage transgender surgeries?	Yes	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x80dee1…
10-27 20:49:44	Will PSOE win the most seats in Badajoz in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	42	62¢	$26	0x8b1c71…
10-27 19:37:53	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0x26db99…
10-27 17:58:32	Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0x70def9…
10-27 17:58:08	Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	54	35¢	$19	0x703f22…
10-27 16:42:18	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdf5383…
10-27 16:38:30	Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	76	39¢	$30	0x44b1f2…
10-27 14:49:21	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0xdc1198…
10-27 14:46:29	Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	32¢	$49	0x557e98…
10-27 14:46:05	Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0xed6d96…
10-27 14:45:11	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	44	50¢	$22	0x46fb74…
10-27 14:44:53	Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	38	34¢	$13	0x3fd405…
10-27 13:56:12	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be above 5%?	Yes	BUY	103	21¢	$22	0x120457…
10-27 13:49:09	Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?	No	BUY	117	34¢	$40	0x58d44e…
10-27 13:34:44	Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	80	73¢	$59	0x90b796…
10-27 13:06:33	Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	61	54¢	$33	0x09836c…
10-27 12:44:39	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xc5052e…
10-27 12:05:15	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x46f729…
10-27 11:18:35	Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdacdd9…
10-27 10:56:21	Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x534258…
10-27 10:51:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 60%-65%?	Yes	BUY	162	20¢	$33	0x9ef99d…
10-27 09:20:50	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	86	28¢	$24	0x101b30…
10-27 09:13:51	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	151	85¢	$128	0x9ad784…
10-27 09:13:08	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	151	4¢	$6	0xf4de90…
10-27 08:24:17	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	7¢	$6	0x295e29…
10-27 08:23:33	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	80¢	$101	0x072c46…
10-26 19:32:12	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0xa0888d…
10-26 14:51:48	Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	62	58¢	$36	0xbe444c…
10-26 13:58:08	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 6.5% to 8%?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xc2913c…
10-26 13:56:39	Will Intel (INTC) Q3 Foundry revenue be above $7.5B?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x798bdf…
10-26 13:56:00	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be 850,000 or more?	No	BUY	56	83¢	$47	0xb7902c…
10-26 13:55:27	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 600,000 and 650,000?	No	BUY	62	83¢	$52	0xbd33d4…
10-26 10:15:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	105	55¢	$58	0xe74c15…
10-26 09:20:32	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x7451ac…
10-26 09:20:06	Will DICK'S Sporting Goods Q3 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 3% and 4%?	No	BUY	77	30¢	$23	0xbcfe3c…
10-26 09:17:47	Will Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	77	43¢	$33	0xd39f05…
10-26 08:35:29	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	214	57¢	$123	0x31e136…
10-25 21:17:44	Will The Joint List win 4.5-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0xf7e800…
10-25 21:17:06	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0x7efea1…
10-25 19:26:02	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	77	71¢	$54	0x15b68d…
10-25 17:20:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	286	13¢	$37	0x0eb875…
10-25 17:19:48	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be 3,050,000 or more?	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x4068a9…
10-25 17:19:11	Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $4B?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x3ca63a…
10-25 09:20:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-03 House election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	38	74¢	$28	0xebcb5e…
10-25 09:18:30	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 28?	No	BUY	87	81¢	$70	0x4d3766…
10-25 08:49:36	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	BUY	119	47¢	$56	0xccbb61…
10-25 08:40:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	No	BUY	96	50¢	$48	0x7bb4a7…
10-25 08:21:18	Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 19-October 25?	Yes	SELL	226	7¢	$16	0x8c395a…
10-25 08:03:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	67	24¢	$16	0xc571c6…
10-24 15:36:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	41	69¢	$28	0x45965a…
10-24 15:19:15	Will Synopsys Q4 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B?	Yes	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0x735708…
10-24 15:18:53	Will Synopsys Q4 Design Automation revenue be above $2.0B?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x00383f…
10-24 14:50:41	Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be above 1%?	No	BUY	129	65¢	$84	0x6355d1…
10-24 11:35:09	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	88	57¢	$50	0xb79896…
10-24 10:34:38	Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xf67f04…
10-24 10:20:11	Will Harj Dhaliwal win the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	111	60¢	$67	0x166673…
10-24 09:30:45	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $8.75B?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5fdb18…
10-24 09:29:03	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	SELL	638	12¢	$78	0xfb75bf…
10-24 09:25:24	Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $55B?	No	BUY	41	79¢	$32	0x6bddb6…
10-24 09:24:36	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0x0a9bcf…
10-24 09:23:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0xe141d6…
10-24 09:23:23	Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x7f2ff7…
10-24 09:22:54	Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x20e192…
10-24 09:22:32	Will the Iowa Republican perform worst among these tossup Senate races?	No	SELL	170	68¢	$116	0x4e8d0a…
10-24 09:22:06	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?	Yes	SELL	116	45¢	$52	0x0324a2…
10-23 19:25:00	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	291	26¢	$76	0x99cfed…
10-23 19:24:23	Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 18% to 21%?	No	BUY	41	80¢	$33	0xe28b7e…
10-23 19:23:57	Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	BUY	37	65¢	$24	0x6bfb3b…
10-23 19:23:29	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	No	BUY	87	55¢	$48	0x811278…
10-23 13:56:51	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	23¢	$16	0xe92d81…
10-23 13:54:35	Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	17¢	$31	0x75956c…
10-23 13:53:54	Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	36¢	$91	0x3515f9…
10-23 13:53:32	Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	18¢	$45	0x8e6e72…
10-23 13:53:08	Will Marguerite Humeau win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$49	0x34a78c…
10-23 12:28:53	Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	147	75¢	$111	0xbd2c70…
10-23 12:27:06	Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x142c3c…
10-23 08:51:32	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0x078f81…
10-23 08:40:33	Will ERC win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0xd23abd…
10-23 08:33:11	Will PP win the most seats in Córdoba in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0x21a728…
10-23 08:28:38	Will PP win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x0d045f…
10-23 08:22:44	Will PP win the most seats in Cuenca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	56	73¢	$41	0xd9dd41…
10-23 07:48:05	Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 75% by November 2?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xf4dfd5…
10-23 07:47:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	78¢	$28	0x200163…