Bumpy-Conscience — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

+$340

Unrealized P&L

+$88

Hit rate

83.4%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

2,978 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$830

$108.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$594

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 17:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 218 days

Categories

Crypto

65% 47% -$2,021

Other

23% 64% +$3,522

Politics

11% 52% +$668

Tech

1% 71% +$389

Sports

0% 75% +$50

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+111	$72	80¢	$89	+$17	10-05 09:41
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	+92	$71	94¢	$86	+$15	10-28 09:08
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+120	$36	62¢	$74	+$38	09-28 06:19
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+80	$65	81¢	$65	$0	11-02 17:20
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+62	$50	99¢	$61	+$11	10-02 07:00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	+105	$58	53¢	$56	-$2	10-26 10:15
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+48	$34	86¢	$42	+$8	09-27 18:38
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	+66	$35	62¢	$41	+$6	10-30 16:37
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?	Yes	+135	$23	24¢	$32	+$9	09-19 06:35
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	+34	$22	66¢	$23	+$1	10-25 21:17
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+51	$30	28¢	$14	-$16	09-07 20:56
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+16	$10	72¢	$12	+$2	10-11 17:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:55 UTC	2	$1.8K	2,015	+2,015	Up	-$1,796	04-06 19:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:25 UTC	1	$1.5K	3,095	+3,095	Down	-$1,530	04-01 11:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:50 UTC	3	$1.4K	2,989	+2,989	Up	-$1,361	04-01 11:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 14:35 UTC	3	$1.3K	3,117	+3,117	Down	+$1,832	04-06 14:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 15:45 UTC	3	$1.3K	3,037	+3,037	Down	-$1,280	04-14 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:15 UTC	3	$1.3K	2,683	+2,683	Up	-$1,280	04-06 19:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 17:15 UTC	2	$1.3K	3,100	+3,100	Down	+$1,831	04-01 17:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:25 UTC	3	$1.2K	2,491	+2,491	Up	+$1,311	04-06 19:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 11:15 UTC	1	$1.0K	2,179	+2,179	Up	+$1,155	03-12 11:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:05 UTC	2	$1.0K	2,388	+2,388	Down	-$1,024	04-01 11:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 13:30 UTC	2	$800	1,777	+1,777	Up	+$977	04-01 13:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 17:10 UTC	1	$800	1,902	+1,902	Down	-$800	04-01 17:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 15:05 UTC	1	$800	1,765	+1,765	Down	+$965	04-01 15:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 15:25 UTC	2	$800	2,019	+2,019	Down	+$1,219	04-01 15:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 16:10 UTC	2	$800	1,935	+1,935	Down	+$1,135	04-01 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 20:10 UTC	2	$800	1,948	+1,948	Down	+$1,148	04-01 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 19:30 UTC	2	$800	1,803	+1,803	Down	+$1,003	04-01 19:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 13:35 UTC	2	$640	1,638	+1,638	Down	+$998	04-03 13:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 08:20 UTC	1	$640	1,382	+1,382	Down	+$742	04-02 08:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 05:55 UTC	2	$640	1,320	+1,320	Up	-$640	04-04 05:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:10 UTC	2	$640	1,314	+1,314	Up	-$640	04-06 19:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 15:30 UTC	1	$640	1,818	+1,818	Up	-$640	04-14 15:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 14:30 UTC	1	$640	1,602	+1,602	Up	-$640	04-06 14:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 19:50 UTC	1	$640	1,521	+1,521	Down	+$881	04-03 19:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 08:55 UTC	3	$640	1,795	+1,795	Up	-$640	04-04 08:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:20 UTC	1	$589	1,421	+1,421	Up	+$831	04-01 11:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:35 UTC	1	$512	1,055	+1,055	Up	+$543	03-11 12:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 11:00 UTC	1	$512	1,253	+1,253	Down	-$512	04-01 11:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 15:10 UTC	1	$512	1,228	+1,228	Up	+$716	03-10 15:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 11:00 UTC	1	$512	1,159	+1,159	Up	-$512	03-12 11:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 17:20:40	Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	80	81¢	$65	0xb77c0b…
11-02 17:15:16	Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	63¢	$61	0xcce385…
11-02 16:31:25	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	71	68¢	$49	0xbe99b7…
11-02 15:28:48	Will Democrats win 21 or more House seats in New York in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	52	22¢	$11	0xcf5faa…
11-02 15:25:51	Will Democrats win 21 or more House seats in New York in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	84	20¢	$17	0x7d0c03…
11-02 13:32:30	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	70¢	$66	0x1cbf4d…
11-02 09:39:15	Houthis seize an oil tanker by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	78¢	$73	0xff9748…
11-02 09:38:31	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	Yes	BUY	393	35¢	$139	0x40213e…
11-02 09:12:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-34 House election by 12% or more?	No	BUY	65	59¢	$38	0x81b353…
11-02 08:57:54	Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?	Yes	BUY	105	67¢	$71	0x6a576a…
11-02 08:50:48	Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	24	65¢	$16	0x82c4f2…
11-02 08:49:57	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 750,000 and 800,000?	Yes	SELL	131	36¢	$47	0x24da7c…
11-02 08:49:10	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	87	51¢	$44	0x555fef…
11-02 08:10:43	California Tax Spend Audit Proposition	No	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0xb5646b…
11-02 06:36:13	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	72¢	$30	0x3081f2…
11-01 22:04:12	Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	No	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x7d970c…
11-01 18:47:22	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?	No	BUY	148	25¢	$37	0x3350b0…
11-01 18:16:25	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	Yes	BUY	54	16¢	$9	0x4bec78…
11-01 18:01:42	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?	Yes	BUY	51	17¢	$9	0xbb4ef4…
11-01 18:00:21	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more?	No	BUY	22	81¢	$18	0xad973b…
11-01 15:17:07	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	36¢	$49	0x5d2776…
11-01 14:48:27	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	55	64¢	$35	0xaa3ab5…
11-01 14:21:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	40	46¢	$19	0xfb549f…
11-01 14:20:22	Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	44	58¢	$26	0xf5e958…
11-01 13:31:01	Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	51	65¢	$33	0xc84034…
11-01 10:42:39	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	27	44¢	$12	0x41ed8f…
11-01 09:40:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	71	55¢	$39	0x4f554f…
11-01 09:38:12	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	61	88¢	$54	0x27519d…
11-01 09:35:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x5bb2ca…
11-01 07:35:07	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	88	82¢	$72	0xbd6fef…
10-31 18:50:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	42	64¢	$27	0xaff253…
10-31 18:49:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	81	22¢	$18	0xcdab26…
10-31 17:10:16	Will PNV win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	57	47¢	$27	0x8ed06a…
10-31 16:54:06	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	158	24¢	$38	0x97ce6f…
10-31 16:42:21	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0x9cd50c…
10-31 16:34:31	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	67	21¢	$14	0xd87189…
10-31 16:26:39	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-05 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	65	61¢	$40	0xf25c3c…
10-31 16:17:19	Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0x3b658f…
10-31 16:08:25	Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x735e22…
10-31 15:40:10	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	BUY	75	24¢	$18	0x3d9f5d…
10-31 15:13:22	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	56	48¢	$27	0xd11b01…
10-31 09:55:55	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1?	Yes	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0xcd104a…
10-31 09:54:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-02 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	70	23¢	$16	0x88a1c2…
10-31 09:54:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 5%-10%?	No	BUY	27	59¢	$16	0x4b9dcb…
10-31 09:53:03	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?	Yes	BUY	74	71¢	$52	0xe6609a…
10-31 09:50:57	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	261	28¢	$73	0x5c392c…
10-31 08:40:31	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	No	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0x146e56…
10-31 08:39:31	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	143	24¢	$34	0x9a3f46…
10-30 16:37:24	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	66	53¢	$35	0xe9c8bd…
10-30 16:36:49	Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between November 2-November 8?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$11	0xd126d2…
10-30 16:36:12	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	137	49¢	$67	0xd79552…
10-30 14:52:04	Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	95	28¢	$27	0x1613f1…
10-30 14:51:25	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	98	52¢	$51	0xb81d97…
10-30 14:26:22	Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?	No	SELL	240	61¢	$147	0xba71ec…
10-30 12:23:31	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x1ad68d…
10-30 11:45:01	Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of November 2?	No	BUY	82	58¢	$47	0xa7eb08…
10-30 11:18:33	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x4bb94f…
10-30 10:52:39	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 1?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0xa189c5…
10-30 10:27:43	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	31¢	$29	0x7dfe6b…
10-30 10:27:21	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	94	46¢	$43	0x023cee…
10-30 09:21:16	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by November 30?	No	BUY	104	70¢	$73	0xe92d2f…
10-30 09:13:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	26	66¢	$17	0x04ea0e…
10-30 09:01:19	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000?	Yes	BUY	92	28¢	$26	0x143018…
10-30 08:57:10	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 700,000 and 750,000?	Yes	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xfa1584…
10-30 08:53:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	47	49¢	$23	0xc445bb…
10-30 08:29:25	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	77	40¢	$31	0xece61e…
10-30 08:29:00	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?	No	SELL	222	78¢	$173	0x368946…
10-30 08:26:52	Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	86	31¢	$27	0x64fa66…
10-30 08:01:10	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	61	51¢	$31	0x18f0fa…
10-29 22:21:15	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	36	20¢	$7	0x8d4025…
10-29 14:47:10	Democratic Senate odds <60% on October 31?	No	BUY	95	56¢	$53	0x1503fc…
10-29 12:56:53	Will Vox win 76 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0x708809…
10-29 10:56:46	Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xc6046d…
10-29 10:20:43	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	13	58¢	$7	0x2d6eca…
10-29 09:54:28	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 1?	No	BUY	65	84¢	$55	0x26625e…
10-29 09:27:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	96	19¢	$18	0xdbed15…
10-29 09:26:43	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	67	58¢	$39	0xcbee8f…
10-29 09:24:29	Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	36	39¢	$14	0x536572…
10-29 09:24:10	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x804768…
10-29 09:05:07	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x96b0a0…
10-29 08:47:08	Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	92	19¢	$17	0x2ad88b…
10-29 08:31:38	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be 2,200,000 or more?	No	BUY	36	73¢	$26	0x1d10c8…
10-29 08:30:32	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,900,000 and 3,050,000?	No	SELL	54	87¢	$47	0xff20c4…
10-29 08:17:56	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 290,000 and 305,000?	No	BUY	52	44¢	$23	0x7be1f0…
10-29 07:51:46	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	196	19¢	$37	0xa4f665…
10-29 07:40:29	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	107	61¢	$65	0x398757…
10-29 07:09:08	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	42¢	$32	0xa32c9c…
10-28 18:49:07	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	124	30¢	$37	0xcee1cf…
10-28 16:47:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-01 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	41	70¢	$29	0x6f605f…
10-28 14:55:07	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	71¢	$31	0xf6c85b…
10-28 11:06:25	Will Deadlock win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	86	82¢	$71	0x3c0b59…
10-28 10:49:14	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	95	22¢	$21	0x8262ba…
10-28 10:42:32	Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	318	5¢	$16	0x0744b5…
10-28 10:28:29	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	39	72¢	$28	0x49d426…
10-28 10:24:32	Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?	Yes	BUY	196	36¢	$71	0xf784ed…
10-28 10:07:56	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	27¢	$18	0xf3ea40…
10-28 10:03:35	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 750,000 and 800,000?	Yes	BUY	131	18¢	$24	0x4f200e…
10-28 09:48:07	Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	No	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0xb158a4…
10-28 09:21:05	Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	75	52¢	$39	0x58f08a…
10-28 09:08:47	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	92	77¢	$71	0xc63d23…