Carefree-Depot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.89K

Unrealized P&L

-$31

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

1,240

Trades

4,781

lifetime

Volume

$109.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$106

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 09:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 272 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 83% -$614

Other

39% 75% -$1,085

Politics

19% 55% -$139

Tech

1% 43% -$27

Sports

1% 30% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	+61	$52	84¢	$51	-$1	10-20 13:57
will oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027	No	+50	$60	82¢	$41	-$19	09-29 20:39
will oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027	Yes	+50	$20	18¢	$9	-$11	09-29 17:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+3	$2	68¢	$2	+$0	10-15 16:28
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	+7	$2	26¢	$2	$0	10-15 16:28
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	83¢	$1	+$0	10-15 16:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	26	$3.2K	2,076	2,076	+0	Yes	+$26	07-24 17:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	39	$2.7K	2,553	2,548	+6	Yes	+$1	07-27 21:21
bitcoin above 90k on january 7	2	$2.3K	1,171	1,171	+0	Yes	+$1	01-07 16:48
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	2	$2.3K	1,167	1,167	+0	No	-$6	01-07 16:25
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	152	$2.1K	2,483	2,321	+162	Yes	-$49	07-13 16:12
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	9	$2.0K	1,832	1,832	+0	Yes	-$12	09-09 07:53
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	8	$1.8K	940	940	+0	open	—	10-01 05:15
bitcoin above 88k on january 6	2	$1.3K	1,349	0	+1,349	Yes	+$1	01-06 13:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 15:30 UTC	26	$1.3K	0	3,276	-3,276	Down	-$334	01-09 15:39
cs2 bbp fal 2026 07 27	15	$1.3K	1,423	1,423	+0	Falcons Force	+$1	07-27 18:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 17:30 UTC	33	$1.3K	0	1,592	-1,592	Down	-$136	01-07 17:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	10	$1.3K	673	673	+0	open	—	10-15 06:16
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?	12	$1.3K	1,085	1,085	+0	Yes	-$44	08-28 16:41
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	15	$1.1K	1,025	1,025	+0	No	-$2	07-21 17:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	25	$1.1K	695	695	+0	Yes	+$53	07-29 18:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 13:30 UTC	22	$1.1K	0	2,632	-2,632	Down	-$181	01-08 13:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 20:45 UTC	62	$1.1K	0	2,523	-2,523	Up	-$164	01-07 20:57
bitcoin above 88k on january 5	1	$1.1K	1,059	0	+1,059	Yes	+$1	01-05 13:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 12:30 UTC	61	$999	0	3,947	-3,947	Up	-$485	01-08 12:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 18:15 UTC	21	$913	0	2,263	-2,263	Up	+$158	01-08 18:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 15:00 UTC	17	$847	0	2,787	-2,787	Up	-$173	01-09 15:14
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	37	$839	1,464	1,464	+0	Yes	-$39	07-22 17:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 19:45 UTC	4	$839	579	1,504	-925	Down	-$746	01-09 19:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 10:00 UTC	15	$794	0	1,902	-1,902	Down	+$160	01-08 10:13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	11	$788	788	788	+0	Yes	+$0	07-21 16:27
will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	8	$777	733	733	+0	Yes	-$103	09-04 18:47
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-08 13:15 UTC	13	$742	0	1,724	-1,724	Up	+$167	01-08 13:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 18:15 UTC	12	$732	0	2,793	-2,793	Up	-$664	01-07 18:28
Valorant: T1 vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	20	$722	519	519	+0	VARREL	-$31	07-23 12:15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	23	$704	460	460	+0	No	+$23	06-15 08:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:47:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 29?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8a21e8…
10-29 09:44:05	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfd6fa4…
10-29 09:15:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd0df42…
10-28 18:57:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf328f5…
10-28 18:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x9ddd67…
10-28 18:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x813e42…
10-28 18:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x992b5f…
10-28 17:06:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb3f266…
10-27 23:04:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x56b75a…
10-27 22:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xbf251b…
10-27 22:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x2503f8…
10-27 22:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc8e8a4…
10-27 22:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe0f094…
10-27 22:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xba2ba3…
10-27 22:15:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5e46bb…
10-26 11:16:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7bb271…
10-26 09:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xfc8f51…
10-25 07:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x0c5700…
10-25 07:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x5361c8…
10-25 07:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x630b2c…
10-25 07:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x63b346…
10-25 07:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4259cc…
10-25 07:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	58¢	$6	0xddc55b…
10-25 07:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x72abc7…
10-24 07:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x420eae…
10-24 01:01:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x01c8cf…
10-23 23:03:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x408db7…
10-22 19:29:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x249ec6…
10-22 16:34:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xe549b8…
10-22 08:00:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x5e3e8b…
10-21 18:39:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x25728e…
10-21 18:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0615b8…
10-21 08:57:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0xc5f17f…
10-20 13:57:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x915213…
10-20 13:57:15	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xb75d18…
10-20 07:08:13	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Yes	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0x227335…
10-20 07:05:13	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	37	85¢	$32	0x1ed465…
10-20 06:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x32d611…
10-20 06:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x68e041…
10-19 16:26:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x049d5e…
10-19 16:22:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x81c752…
10-19 15:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x6138fb…
10-19 15:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x345fb6…
10-18 09:27:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x1d824e…
10-18 09:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xda8d36…
10-17 07:23:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x26373b…
10-17 07:22:54	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	701	5¢	$36	0xa0e535…
10-17 07:22:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	701	6¢	$42	0xc7d655…
10-17 07:22:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	856	5¢	$45	0x4e7ed1…
10-17 07:22:21	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	856	6¢	$49	0xd9b889…
10-17 07:21:23	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0x17acd7…
10-17 07:20:44	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18?	Yes	SELL	2,066	1¢	$23	0xf3cbeb…
10-17 07:18:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,700 October 12-18?	Yes	BUY	2,066	2¢	$43	0x854bc6…
10-17 07:16:21	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	67	44¢	$29	0x640c6c…
10-16 17:26:38	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0xf6e87c…
10-16 17:26:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x3ae180…
10-16 16:39:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	Yes	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x0f8d91…
10-16 16:27:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3e132b…
10-16 16:27:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x486bf4…
10-16 16:23:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x49ebca…
10-16 16:21:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x97a84c…
10-16 16:19:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x4f9e0a…
10-16 16:10:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x27cebf…
10-16 16:10:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x4efb9d…
10-16 16:10:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x6ae472…
10-16 16:10:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0xa2b44c…
10-16 16:09:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x537e72…
10-16 16:09:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x3a87f4…
10-16 16:09:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x1911cf…
10-16 16:09:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x99c798…
10-16 16:08:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x3f399f…
10-16 16:08:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x2f5a79…
10-15 20:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xef1160…
10-15 20:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf62c5b…
10-15 20:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4d4e86…
10-15 20:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xec9a17…
10-15 20:58:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8f6786…
10-15 16:29:08	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xed381b…
10-15 16:28:59	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xb8c919…
10-15 16:28:23	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x94d211…
10-15 16:26:11	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1f124c…
10-15 16:25:55	LoL: FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	FURIA Esports	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xa949a2…
10-15 16:25:41	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	Karmine Corp	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x395449…
10-15 12:35:16	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0xeaa556…
10-15 10:36:02	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0xb46d81…
10-15 10:26:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x92809a…
10-15 10:01:25	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x1cea37…
10-15 09:56:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x57b46b…
10-15 06:18:14	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x2473dc…
10-15 06:16:52	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xe821d5…
10-15 06:10:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x68fa14…
10-14 20:27:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6a4387…
10-13 18:00:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-13 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc7eecc…
10-13 17:59:39	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	No	SELL	23	49¢	$11	0xe94937…
10-13 10:04:46	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	No	SELL	68	48¢	$33	0x7e934a…
10-12 14:44:38	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xb0e246…
10-12 14:44:38	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	No	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x8ebcb0…
10-12 10:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	14	38¢	$5	0x976910…
10-12 10:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x10404c…
10-12 10:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x76bef9…