Carefree-Depot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,236

lifetime

Volume

$47.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 00:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 83% +$4

Other

9% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No		-5	$-5	100¢	$-5	$-0	06-01 14:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 90k on january 7	2	$2.3K	1,171	1,171	+0	open	—	01-07 16:48
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	2	$2.3K	1,167	1,167	+0	open	—	01-07 16:25
bitcoin above 88k on january 6	2	$1.3K	1,349	0	+1,349	open	—	01-06 13:49
btc updown 15m 1767972600	26	$1.3K	0	3,276	-3,276	open	—	01-09 15:39
btc updown 15m 1767807000	33	$1.3K	0	1,592	-1,592	open	—	01-07 17:44
btc updown 15m 1767879000	22	$1.1K	0	2,632	-2,632	open	—	01-08 13:43
btc updown 15m 1767818700	62	$1.1K	0	2,523	-2,523	open	—	01-07 20:57
bitcoin above 88k on january 5	1	$1.1K	1,059	0	+1,059	open	—	01-05 13:10
btc updown 15m 1767875400	61	$999	0	3,947	-3,947	open	—	01-08 12:44
btc updown 15m 1767896100	21	$913	0	2,263	-2,263	open	—	01-08 18:28
btc updown 15m 1767970800	17	$847	0	2,787	-2,787	open	—	01-09 15:14
btc updown 15m 1767987900	4	$839	579	1,504	-925	open	—	01-09 19:57
btc updown 15m 1767866400	15	$794	0	1,902	-1,902	open	—	01-08 10:13
btc updown 15m 1767878100	13	$742	0	1,724	-1,724	open	—	01-08 13:25
btc updown 15m 1767809700	12	$732	0	2,793	-2,793	open	—	01-07 18:28
btc updown 15m 1767880800	27	$673	0	1,754	-1,754	open	—	01-08 14:12
btc updown 15m 1769866200	2	$665	334	334	+0	open	—	01-31 13:43
btc updown 15m 1767960000	2	$635	0	1,500	-1,500	open	—	01-09 12:13
btc updown 15m 1767438900	30	$531	0	1,061	-1,061	open	—	01-03 11:29
btc updown 15m 1767962700	20	$527	0	1,285	-1,285	open	—	01-09 12:57
btc updown 15m 1767437100	2	$520	0	1,020	-1,020	open	—	01-03 10:58
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by december 31 983	1	$515	0	515	-515	open	—	01-01 07:31
btc updown 15m 1767444300	6	$479	0	483	-483	open	—	01-03 12:55
btc updown 15m 1767975300	16	$417	0	962	-962	open	—	01-09 16:24
btc updown 15m 1767974400	28	$415	0	1,222	-1,222	open	—	01-09 16:12
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	10	$356	260	260	+0	open	—	06-09 13:34
btc updown 15m 1769868000	2	$323	330	0	+330	open	—	01-31 14:12
btc updown 15m 1768512600	2	$296	0	705	-705	open	—	01-15 21:44
btc updown 15m 1775337300	12	$266	140	139	+1	open	—	04-04 21:29
btc updown 15m 1775338200	2	$256	136	135	+0	open	—	04-04 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 01:14:39	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xf09a94…
06-10 01:06:31	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x6e84bd…
06-10 00:53:10	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	35	82¢	$29	0xb19e5a…
06-10 00:27:42	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x3239bf…
06-09 13:34:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	80	60¢	$48	0xb3338b…
06-09 12:08:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	80	71¢	$57	0x4ccfd2…
06-09 11:13:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0x0f0561…
06-09 11:13:15	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	74	72¢	$53	0x5fb95f…
06-09 10:39:07	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x8c1bd2…
06-09 10:30:51	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	90	70¢	$63	0xa1ccc8…
06-09 09:56:46	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x99106e…
06-09 09:56:43	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0x0beb7a…
06-08 11:15:04	cpb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 08 2026 0pt48	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xc0255f…
06-08 10:55:25	gme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt19	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xa3c773…
06-08 10:48:10	rh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 11 2026 neg2pt05	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x183ec0…
06-07 18:01:00	gme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt19	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x0e48ce…
06-07 16:28:00	btc updown 15m 1780848900	Up	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xc4a329…
06-07 16:27:58	btc updown 15m 1780848900	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0xda57bb…
06-07 16:23:30	cpb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 08 2026 0pt48	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6c411c…
06-03 13:01:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xc64082…
06-03 13:00:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xb85f77…
06-02 16:07:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	SELL	120	41¢	$49	0xff703e…
06-02 15:28:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	115	67¢	$77	0x82a4c7…
06-02 15:28:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x6e1f47…
06-02 14:50:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x85118f…
06-02 14:50:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xe5368a…
06-02 14:50:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xb6b002…
06-02 14:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc629e0…
06-02 14:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4a63dd…
06-02 14:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd88883…
06-02 14:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9a54db…
06-01 16:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x13c428…
06-01 16:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe27c9d…
06-01 14:20:19	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x601f2b…
05-31 17:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xbf1a4b…
05-31 17:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xb19391…
05-31 17:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x06a928…
05-31 17:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc6d05e…
05-31 17:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x4c8391…
05-29 14:54:28	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	SELL	44	16¢	$7	0xb41b05…
05-29 14:39:10	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	SELL	25	16¢	$4	0xc052e2…
05-29 14:29:20	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x352b0f…
05-29 14:29:15	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0x85837a…
05-28 20:30:01	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x10ee82…
05-28 15:02:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	SELL	65	15¢	$9	0x5c9892…
05-28 14:54:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0x7132cd…
05-28 14:26:26	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x7c24a3…
05-28 14:25:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x72dbab…
05-28 14:16:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xde49f8…
05-28 14:13:41	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	SELL	84	12¢	$10	0x746c31…
05-28 07:02:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	SELL	75	7¢	$5	0xada799…
05-28 06:39:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xf1fa52…
05-28 03:00:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xa6302f…
05-28 01:33:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x62b712…
05-28 01:25:07	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x622682…
05-28 01:18:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0x0af5c8…
05-28 01:05:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x74eed6…
05-27 18:27:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x5db8ad…
05-27 18:13:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	93	8¢	$7	0xc97b68…
05-27 17:23:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x30f023…
05-27 16:52:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0x860cd7…
05-27 16:37:31	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x4de911…
05-27 16:06:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xae34d3…
05-27 16:03:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xa8338a…
05-27 14:42:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x34bb4f…
05-27 14:24:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	SELL	60	10¢	$6	0xd86531…
05-27 09:56:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xaebafb…
05-25 17:06:15	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x2aff33…
05-25 16:43:25	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x3e06ca…
05-25 16:43:23	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x9bb5e3…
05-25 16:40:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x59b039…
05-25 16:38:47	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin	Casper Ruud	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x0b17d3…
05-25 16:37:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x275bfb…
05-25 16:27:59	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x84c44b…
05-25 16:24:15	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin	Casper Ruud	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x779563…
05-25 16:23:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	39	3¢	$1	0x2398ad…
05-25 15:59:19	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin	Casper Ruud	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x14d956…
05-25 15:54:46	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin	Casper Ruud	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa2aa2f…
05-24 13:13:42	Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x69a035…
05-24 12:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x618c92…
05-24 12:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x8cffe4…
05-24 12:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x410ad5…
05-24 12:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf2d6ae…
05-23 06:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xea32b3…
05-23 06:14:14	Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xeff61c…
05-22 14:13:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0d967a…
05-22 14:12:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5b77e2…
05-22 14:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x507b9f…
05-22 14:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6272d7…
05-22 14:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb17a64…
05-21 16:46:30	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of May 18 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc56ecb…
05-21 14:51:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9cc702…
05-21 14:49:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc0c90f…
05-21 14:49:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7dd5d1…
05-21 14:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x1e4281…
05-21 14:48:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x8c8eb2…
05-20 20:21:09	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0e48f5…
05-20 11:09:40	LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3fbfed…
05-20 08:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xe13e31…
05-20 08:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x1a484d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xd44e…b15e	466	$909.9K	141,566	06-07 16:29
Unacceptable-Art 0x2bac…f238	429	$12.5K	722	04-25 17:45
Indolent-Classroom 0x0d19…38d1	420	$1.56K	425	04-27 21:07
(anonymous) 0x912a…0f92	418	$77.0K	11,550	06-07 16:25
Leafy-Blackbird 0x3abb…3405	409	$45.5K	3,170	06-07 16:29
(anonymous) 0xa3d0…ec04	406	$23.6K	3,032	06-02 14:02
(anonymous) 0x203f…521e	383	$171.2K	36,794	04-09 14:26
(anonymous) 0x9cc5…c565	382	$10.5K	3,462	04-12 16:43