Last-Cocktail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.35K

Unrealized P&L

-$55

Hit rate

67.1%

Resolved

503

Trades

1,908

lifetime

Volume

$105.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$49

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 21:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 165 days

Categories

Other

49% 43% -$1,507

Politics

33% 31% +$2,131

Sports

7% 38% +$1,522

Crypto

6% 62% -$690

Tech

5% 67% +$892

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+230	$68	20¢	$45	-$23	10-05 07:39
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+540	$33	0¢	$2	-$31	09-29 15:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4	$3	41¢	$2	-$1	08-28 11:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	30	$4.8K	2,895	2,895	+0	Yes	+$995	07-31 17:23
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	48	$4.7K	2,995	2,995	+0	No	+$918	06-27 10:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	8	$3.9K	2,193	2,193	+0	Yes	+$506	07-29 18:08
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	6	$3.9K	2,106	2,106	+0	Yes	+$269	07-04 23:03
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	9	$3.4K	1,986	1,986	+0	No	+$402	07-28 07:15
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	10	$3.0K	1,770	1,770	+0	No	+$384	06-24 12:06
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	40	$3.0K	4,537	4,537	+0	Yes	-$142	07-10 18:35
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	6	$2.8K	1,590	1,590	+0	Yes	+$319	08-02 05:51
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	25	$2.6K	1,609	1,609	+0	Yes	+$506	08-06 16:28
israel closes its airspace by august 15	18	$2.3K	1,463	1,463	+0	No	+$342	08-05 10:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	33	$2.3K	2,870	2,190	+680	No	-$1,076	08-09 15:31
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	42	$2.3K	2,372	1,707	+665	No	-$502	08-07 09:55
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	25	$2.0K	3,034	80	+2,954	Yes	+$991	07-19 21:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$2.0K	1,720	1,720	+0	No	-$290	09-04 22:49
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	8	$1.9K	1,125	1,125	+0	Yes	+$297	07-12 18:52
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	11	$1.8K	1,834	1,834	+0	Yes	-$530	09-08 10:46
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	23	$1.6K	930	930	+0	Yes	+$171	08-20 01:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	8	$1.4K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$200	05-28 10:38
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	6	$1.3K	1,260	1,260	+0	No	-$691	07-30 21:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	1,110	1,110	+0	Yes	+$799	06-14 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	7	$1.2K	637	637	+0	Up	+$24	09-04 21:34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$1.2K	920	920	+0	Yes	-$30	03-25 20:07
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	16	$1.2K	959	959	+0	Yes	+$180	10-26 23:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	770	770	+0	Yes	+$439	06-14 23:00
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud	3	$985	535	535	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$65	05-17 16:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	5	$912	1,370	1,370	+0	No	-$5	03-26 18:02
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	8	$892	480	480	+0	Down	+$57	03-02 11:52
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	14	$865	901	901	+0	Yes	-$236	07-27 15:33
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	2	$854	555	555	+0	Yes	+$252	07-12 03:01
will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	5	$827	647	490	+156	No	+$7	08-05 20:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 21:46:26	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	188	63¢	$119	0x6904dd…
10-27 19:26:00	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x6beb87…
10-27 04:41:08	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0xc808f7…
10-27 04:36:47	Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0x86cb43…
10-27 04:35:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x2bb3d6…
10-27 04:35:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x277834…
10-27 04:34:50	Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0xbf6561…
10-27 04:32:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	63	67¢	$42	0x3923e2…
10-27 04:19:26	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	90	72¢	$65	0x735742…
10-27 04:18:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	85	67¢	$57	0x2be384…
10-27 04:17:53	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x64d553…
10-27 04:13:35	Will Amcha Yisrael win 2.5-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x15f752…
10-27 04:11:18	Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xc9525d…
10-27 04:10:48	Will Amcha Yisrael win 2.5-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x5fdbc8…
10-27 04:10:26	Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x71607a…
10-27 03:58:41	Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x0e5663…
10-27 03:58:36	Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x430985…
10-27 03:57:05	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xd93401…
10-26 23:50:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	159	100¢	$159	0x60f0e9…
10-26 18:53:45	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	110	73¢	$80	0xaf6d9b…
10-26 18:52:57	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x0a4658…
10-26 18:52:45	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x8271f6…
10-26 18:52:26	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	690	6¢	$39	0x1bc2b2…
10-26 18:51:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?	No	SELL	32	32¢	$10	0x59d5d9…
10-26 13:43:06	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$2	0xe1576b…
10-26 13:37:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x785701…
10-25 18:00:12	Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xaa510e…
10-25 17:57:47	Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x2af2b2…
10-25 14:26:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0x0f177b…
10-25 13:56:27	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	90	62¢	$56	0xad8e4a…
10-24 00:23:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	74	97¢	$72	0x640aa7…
10-21 23:40:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x3318cf…
10-21 22:25:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x71b66a…
10-21 22:25:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	53	84¢	$44	0x095127…
10-21 14:01:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0xb1b018…
10-20 20:35:51	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	No	SELL	147	33¢	$49	0xf9ac87…
10-20 20:35:21	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xdded7a…
10-15 18:26:34	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	SELL	88	94¢	$83	0x0ea4d9…
10-11 21:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x5c24ad…
10-11 21:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2a4105…
10-11 21:44:34	Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x24bf7d…
10-11 21:44:13	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0xabe5bd…
10-11 16:33:24	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x6833f6…
10-11 16:33:03	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x8d9fef…
10-11 16:32:48	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xe46d24…
10-11 08:44:19	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	SELL	25	94¢	$23	0x1fd9b0…
10-10 16:02:43	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x77536b…
10-10 16:02:27	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x35ec56…
10-09 20:07:32	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x1e6ec7…
10-09 07:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x377738…
10-09 07:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xa15f21…
10-09 07:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x4e5e1b…
10-09 07:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xabd3da…
10-09 07:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x4e4b0e…
10-09 07:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe4d5eb…
10-09 07:12:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x5ba84d…
10-09 07:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x7b1678…
10-09 07:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x2c1efd…
10-09 07:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf1e0cb…
10-09 06:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xae2eba…
10-09 06:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x961bac…
10-09 06:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x3fcfcd…
10-09 06:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb1f098…
10-09 06:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xc0495b…
10-09 06:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x67e0ff…
10-09 06:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xbd43a0…
10-09 06:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xda7577…
10-09 06:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	17¢	$1	0x70d1b4…
10-09 06:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x45653d…
10-09 06:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x195e1b…
10-09 06:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3c302b…
10-09 06:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7b7ea0…
10-09 06:53:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xcc1c29…
10-09 06:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x9b6ac8…
10-09 06:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xd43f86…
10-09 06:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x4bd5f9…
10-09 06:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xcbf2db…
10-09 06:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x87ab62…
10-09 06:51:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 27, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xa94da3…
10-09 06:47:30	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x1550e4…
10-08 11:23:41	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x751d86…
10-08 11:22:45	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x52e732…
10-08 11:22:18	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	28	63¢	$18	0x92385c…
10-08 11:21:48	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x683b4e…
10-08 11:21:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xc31ca7…
10-08 11:20:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x1aad28…
10-08 11:20:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x6e903e…
10-08 11:18:47	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x6d3c97…
10-08 04:47:56	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0x915653…
10-08 04:47:19	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x9f5156…
10-08 04:47:13	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 15?	No	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0x0d165f…
10-08 04:46:01	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xfe326e…
10-08 04:45:58	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0xfc5561…
10-08 04:45:40	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x464edb…
10-08 04:45:19	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x1c6ad3…
10-07 17:14:44	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	36	79¢	$28	0xae089e…
10-07 17:14:32	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0x64abca…
10-07 17:14:32	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x5f9084…
10-07 17:14:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xeb4f87…
10-07 11:06:38	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xda4cff…