Fumbling-Lecture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

293

Trades

294

lifetime

Volume

$3.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-03 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 233 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 07:29
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 05:33
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-12 10:08
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:49
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 08:12
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-10 08:19
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 06:48
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-08 15:17
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 06:13
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 01:36
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 16:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 06:21
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 01:45
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 15:21
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:28
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:35
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 12:31
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 15:33
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 04:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:21
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:55
highest temperature in seoul on april 6 2026 14c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-06 09:45
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 21c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-05 08:55
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 3 2026 25corhigher	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-03 15:06
highest temperature in denver on april 2 2026 70 71f	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-03 02:30
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 2 2026 27c	1	$22	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-02 14:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 16:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x34c047…
11-01 17:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa7276f…
10-31 15:53:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x529135…
10-30 14:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6e76d5…
10-29 17:50:52	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd55891…
10-29 09:25:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa0b85d…
10-28 07:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd6da72…
10-27 09:17:26	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x80100f…
10-26 09:31:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3777ec…
10-24 11:47:15	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x46a0cc…
10-22 10:26:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x217539…
10-20 07:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xecc184…
10-19 09:22:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcbb135…
10-18 10:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x43563f…
10-17 15:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4fea05…
10-16 10:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x95fd8c…
10-15 09:38:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbbf0c3…
10-14 09:43:53	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x32637a…
10-13 09:23:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8bbac…
10-12 09:31:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae31d6…
10-11 09:12:39	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x307257…
10-08 12:27:08	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa4b58a…
10-07 15:28:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8e7368…
10-06 15:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9a515f…
10-05 06:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9a1f6f…
10-03 08:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x82c6d6…
10-02 13:13:12	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x94f640…
10-01 08:31:26	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x765e3a…
09-30 02:41:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf37f54…
09-28 09:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xef2709…
09-27 08:56:11	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4155bf…
09-25 16:16:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a1e45…
09-24 08:42:05	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x002861…
09-23 08:33:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x699f4c…
09-22 08:33:42	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89e70f…
09-21 09:32:26	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a2360…
09-20 05:54:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf785f5…
09-19 08:56:13	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbeefaa…
09-18 07:42:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca7ce9…
09-17 04:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf492b2…
09-16 08:54:31	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf31b31…
09-15 10:19:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x439d67…
09-14 09:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x959150…
09-13 02:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x71ea35…
09-11 07:25:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb06afb…
09-10 08:40:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93d92e…
09-09 12:22:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x72eef2…
09-08 15:48:21	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x330166…
09-08 06:13:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac2b57…
09-07 08:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba7e34…
09-06 16:02:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbb6418…
09-06 10:36:31	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30298f…
09-05 01:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f0b15…
09-03 17:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae828c…
09-02 07:53:16	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb343cc…
08-30 09:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73118e…
08-29 09:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x168309…
08-28 08:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf3afac…
08-27 09:01:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4c95f1…
08-26 08:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x67f28c…
08-25 09:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x87c57e…
08-24 14:15:34	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe3b87e…
08-23 15:04:52	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x287c99…
08-22 09:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8c832f…
08-21 07:47:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6adeae…
08-20 09:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ff2c8…
08-18 08:29:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0056a1…
08-17 08:19:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x02e0fe…
08-16 14:22:37	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae4f52…
08-15 10:03:25	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa36495…
08-14 06:56:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8db151…
08-13 08:56:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x911d1b…
08-12 08:57:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x426f0c…
08-11 07:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd66149…
08-10 08:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8bc1aa…
08-09 06:14:04	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad60f6…
08-08 07:40:34	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd18b57…
08-07 07:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a0795…
08-06 06:50:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5c5f09…
08-05 08:02:23	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe1d32f…
08-04 08:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xda0fef…
08-03 07:42:53	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb7b3b9…
08-02 06:32:35	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x623a8a…
08-01 07:11:53	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa62660…
07-31 13:50:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0d31e0…
07-30 07:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb3e944…
07-29 07:13:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x757b1d…
07-28 07:07:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd93d7…
07-27 08:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x177227…
07-26 07:24:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x76860b…
07-25 08:20:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2af9b1…
07-24 13:32:55	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x37fa85…
07-23 08:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4080ab…
07-22 02:09:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x58028a…
07-21 09:19:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x38a8f2…
07-21 00:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x952085…
07-20 08:03:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x796b50…
07-18 23:26:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x64462b…
07-18 00:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe8ab04…
07-17 07:25:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2862b7…