Glum-Contrast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$829

Unrealized P&L

-$53

Hit rate

47.0%

Resolved

379

Trades

772

lifetime

Volume

$5.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$162

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 11-05 02:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 135 days

Categories

Other

54% 26% -$398

Sports

33% 38% -$98

Politics

11% 0% -$332

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+120	$30	52¢	$63	+$33	08-06 16:25
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Yes	+950	$100	4¢	$34	-$66	07-20 16:31
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	-550	-$23	4¢	$-21	+$2	11-03 21:41
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+83	$10	24¢	$20	+$10	08-06 23:22
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+292	$20	4¢	$11	-$9	10-19 15:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+214	$15	4¢	$9	-$6	11-02 18:28
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+77	$10	6¢	$4	-$6	08-10 15:13
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+91	$10	1¢	$1	-$9	08-10 15:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	3	$412	2,196	1,857	+339	No	+$2	02-09 12:28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$399	0	547	-547	Yes	-$148	06-14 22:50
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$203	163	163	+0	Yes	+$123	07-19 22:28
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	3	$150	1,076	0	+1,076	No	-$150	02-28 10:17
epl liv mac 2026 02 08 mac	3	$150	141	141	+0	Yes	+$130	02-08 18:32
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	2	$134	526	526	+0	open	—	11-03 21:40
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	2	$119	465	465	+0	No	-$81	03-14 14:53
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	1	$100	950	0	+950	open	—	07-20 16:31
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$92	211	211	+0	No	-$7	06-06 03:48
crint lka zwe 2026 02 19	7	$81	67	67	+0	Zimbabwe	+$53	02-19 13:13
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$72	66	66	+0	Yes	+$38	06-14 03:35
will west indies win the 2026 icc mens t20 world cup	17	$68	1,483	0	+1,483	No	-$68	02-16 17:26
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$68	58	58	+0	Yes	+$48	07-19 22:42
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$64	385	385	+0	open	—	11-03 21:40
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	2	$63	55	55	+0	Knicks	+$47	06-14 03:34
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$63	300	300	+0	No	-$16	07-07 17:26
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$60	419	0	+419	No	-$60	07-11 23:35
crint nld pak 2026 02 07	2	$60	125	125	+0	Pakistan	+$40	02-07 08:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	2	$57	227	227	+0	No	-$43	09-06 15:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$52	764	764	+0	No	-$48	08-31 03:00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$51	1,792	0	+1,792	No	-$51	07-05 21:48
crint nzl zaf 2026 02 14	10	$50	1,055	0	+1,055	South Africa	-$50	02-14 16:27
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	3	$50	700	700	+0	No	-$9	03-09 22:14
crint ind zaf 2026 02 22	5	$43	1,034	34	+1,000	South Africa	+$23	02-22 16:51
pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	2	$43	868	0	+868	No	-$43	03-14 14:54
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants	4	$42	31	31	+0	Rajasthan Royals	+$2	05-19 17:58
crint afg zaf 2026 02 11	6	$41	109	46	+63	South Africa	+$1	02-11 09:51
crint ind pak 2026 02 15	11	$40	265	0	+265	India	-$40	02-15 15:31
will sri lanka win the 2026 icc mens t20 world cup	9	$39	1,040	0	+1,040	No	-$39	02-22 11:17
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 4pt5	2	$39	30	30	+0	Knicks	+$21	06-14 03:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 02:54:37	Spread: Thunder (-7.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x1a243b…
11-03 21:41:03	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	550	4¢	$23	0x33f744…
11-03 21:40:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	385	4¢	$14	0x709536…
11-03 21:40:03	Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	526	6¢	$34	0x8e8f49…
11-02 18:28:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0x6ed0db…
11-01 02:51:40	Spread: Rockets (-18.5)	Rockets	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0x576401…
11-01 02:27:16	Spread: Rockets (-10.5)	Thunder	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x5bf8ea…
11-01 02:26:01	Spread: Rockets (-18.5)	Rockets	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xee94be…
11-01 00:34:15	Spread: Hornets (-3.5)	76ers	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb6d69f…
11-01 00:34:07	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb82539…
11-01 00:05:10	Spread: Hornets (-3.5)	76ers	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x4b9e71…
11-01 00:04:34	Spread: Hornets (-6.5)	Hornets	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x48f021…
11-01 00:00:48	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0xc6c578…
11-01 00:00:48	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x814fd8…
11-01 00:00:48	76ers vs. Hornets	76ers	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x259314…
10-31 23:59:24	Spread: Hornets (-6.5)	Hornets	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9c922f…
10-31 09:57:48	Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xf86f63…
10-31 09:57:42	Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa93456…
10-31 01:57:03	Spread: 76ers (-1.5)	Knicks	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x89aafd…
10-26 21:35:17	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x1e821f…
10-26 01:57:03	Spread: Pistons (-6.5)	76ers	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5e1a16…
10-26 01:50:24	Pistons vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xcce2af…
10-26 01:50:11	Spread: Pistons (-4.5)	76ers	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x39ee10…
10-26 01:42:53	Pistons vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc7ece9…
10-25 23:24:51	Lakers vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x44d06d…
10-24 01:47:51	Spread: Celtics (-5.5)	Knicks	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xf2b75e…
10-24 01:25:50	Pistons vs. Heat	Heat	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x849d59…
10-24 00:48:48	Spread: Celtics (-5.5)	Knicks	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xe3455e…
10-24 00:09:59	Knicks vs. Celtics	Knicks	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x6b712e…
10-23 02:21:09	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x3fbf63…
10-23 02:20:06	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xaee3d6…
10-23 02:20:06	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x39a64e…
10-23 00:24:23	Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)	76ers	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x069d5c…
10-22 19:42:54	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0x92b10d…
10-22 19:13:32	Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xddc49b…
10-22 17:42:39	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd88989…
10-22 16:11:50	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x491b3a…
10-21 02:13:24	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x67cfa9…
10-21 01:09:36	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x3dca21…
10-20 21:43:36	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)	Pistons	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe8af9f…
10-20 21:43:29	Celtics vs. Pistons	Pistons	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0724ec…
10-20 21:02:02	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)	Pistons	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x745cf7…
10-20 21:00:36	Celtics vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x749a7a…
10-19 15:47:50	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	149	7¢	$10	0xacdb3c…
10-17 17:14:02	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x28cbba…
10-17 16:55:17	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3094fb…
10-17 13:35:41	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	142	7¢	$10	0xc4724a…
10-14 20:57:40	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x490f7c…
10-14 20:44:09	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xbb0d4f…
10-14 20:41:00	Will Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x8362fd…
10-14 20:11:10	Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xf5eda2…
10-13 19:51:37	Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x39f3c1…
10-13 19:46:15	Galatasaray SK vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x4a4b71…
10-13 13:00:07	Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0x524fa0…
09-06 23:16:13	Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xb64c80…
09-06 15:59:12	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x94b3fd…
09-06 15:38:51	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x0855a8…
09-06 15:37:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	227	3¢	$7	0x7333f3…
09-06 13:38:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	214	1¢	$1	0x5a9521…
09-01 16:05:09	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	141	1¢	$2	0xda73c8…
08-31 03:00:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	764	0¢	$2	0x09da77…
08-30 14:24:13	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	55	18¢	$10	0x3b45a3…
08-29 17:49:55	Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 - 1 Newcastle United FC?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xd64e53…
08-29 15:03:25	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 0 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x97567a…
08-29 14:34:33	Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 0 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb2b801…
08-29 14:18:09	Everton FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x2aab33…
08-29 13:26:42	Will Liverpool FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x0c61f1…
08-29 13:24:06	Will Liverpool FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xec7a49…
08-29 10:46:15	Liverpool FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd0603c…
08-29 10:45:04	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xeb14a0…
08-28 14:42:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	143	4¢	$5	0x417aba…
08-28 14:41:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,214	1¢	$11	0x6e2472…
08-27 15:23:40	Will Pakistan win?	Yes	SELL	29	21¢	$6	0x82e9e7…
08-27 11:08:51	Will Pakistan win?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x5c64c6…
08-27 04:02:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by August 31?	Yes	SELL	124	1¢	$1	0xa72f40…
08-25 23:20:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 14 2026	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0x794460…
08-25 23:20:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	306	10¢	$30	0x63cdc3…
08-25 09:36:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	187	5¢	$10	0xe621f8…
08-25 09:36:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0xbd9113…
08-23 21:29:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	270	4¢	$10	0x4ca0da…
08-23 17:18:39	Will Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x054e3b…
08-23 16:35:21	Exact Score: Newcastle United FC 1 - 0 Liverpool FC?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x265d82…
08-22 21:13:57	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$5	0x0c2f5b…
08-22 11:54:30	Will Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xffd0f0…
08-12 14:50:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x638489…
08-11 19:52:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x9af8be…
08-11 19:52:09	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in July?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xdf8b69…
08-11 16:24:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$10	0x385e24…
08-10 15:13:25	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x52aad3…
08-10 15:13:15	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x4dec5e…
08-07 23:35:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x4418d5…
08-06 23:22:59	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xac196a…
08-06 16:26:17	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by august 31 20260730185522346	Yes	BUY	124	8¢	$10	0xd10344…
08-06 16:25:47	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x7599ee…
08-03 00:45:38	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	352	3¢	$10	0x8890a6…
07-20 16:31:04	Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	950	11¢	$100	0xb2c3b3…
07-19 22:42:49	Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	58	100¢	$58	0xac4172…
07-19 22:28:09	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	163	100¢	$163	0xa15229…
07-19 21:57:39	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x682ef9…
07-19 21:47:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	78	9¢	$7	0xd8cda8…