Conventional-Bonfire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$129

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.0%

Resolved

696

Trades

1,327

lifetime

Volume

$2.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 06-09 10:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

75% 39% -$133

Politics

11% 45% -$9

Sports

10% 57% +$7

Crypto

3% 82% +$5

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-09).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	11	$82	45	45	-0	No	+$3	06-06 15:00
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	8	$27	20	20	+0	No	+$2	06-06 15:00
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	11	$25	41	41	+0	Yes	-$12	06-06 15:00
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	19	$23	80	0	+80	No	-$13	04-25 17:12
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?	9	$19	30	35	-5	No	$0	04-25 17:59
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?	13	$17	60	0	+60	No	-$12	04-26 21:17
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	3	$17	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-23 23:01
nhl dal bos 2026 03 31 total 6pt5	5	$16	15	15	+0	Over	+$3	04-01 01:45
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	3	$14	10	5	+5	No	+$0	04-16 23:53
nhl ott fla 2026 03 31 total 5pt5	4	$13	10	10	+0	Over	+$2	04-01 00:59
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	5	$13	21	5	+16	Yes	-$9	05-16 06:07
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 280 299	3	$13	10	5	+5	No	+$1	04-16 22:48
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$1	05-25 03:17
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	3	$13	10	5	+5	No	+$0	04-16 23:51
highest temperature in toronto on april 1 2026 10c	3	$12	11	11	+0	Yes	+$8	04-01 05:14
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?	4	$12	10	10	+0	No	$0	05-24 23:49
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on May 28?	2	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$0	05-27 03:24
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26?	3	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$0	05-25 22:16
highest temperature in dallas on april 3 2026 84 85f	3	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	04-04 07:13
highest temperature in toronto on april 7 2026 neg 4corbelow	2	$10	833	0	+833	No	-$10	04-05 08:43
highest temperature in london on april 7 2026 19c	10	$10	38	0	+38	No	-$10	04-05 23:45
highest temperature in london on april 8 2026 23c	9	$10	49	0	+49	No	-$10	04-06 14:05
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	05-23 23:01
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	05-23 23:01
mlb phi sf 2026 04 08	2	$10	19	0	+19	San Francisco Giants	+$9	04-08 21:13
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	05-23 23:01
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 440 459	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-14 03:58
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-16 13:37
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	05-23 23:01
gpt 5pt5 released by april 22 2026	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	04-18 17:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 10:37:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5759bd…
06-09 00:26:09	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	4	10¢	$0	0x7f48d3…
06-09 00:25:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x1e516a…
06-09 00:25:55	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x5c8e20…
06-09 00:24:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x876723…
06-09 00:24:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xe8487b…
06-09 00:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x41ad93…
06-09 00:02:39	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x05d2c1…
06-08 15:24:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x4ca597…
06-08 15:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x1063d2…
06-08 08:52:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xa837da…
06-08 08:52:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xf0c9cb…
06-08 08:28:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x7ee2fa…
06-08 07:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x36a09b…
06-07 23:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x262ff4…
06-07 23:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x02e547…
06-07 23:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x0563f8…
06-07 23:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xa2db47…
06-07 20:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x7ce9c2…
06-07 20:34:31	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xefc999…
06-07 20:34:31	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xe8ab74…
06-07 18:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xb06dd0…
06-07 17:52:36	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0de0cb…
06-07 16:48:37	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x2571d0…
06-07 16:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x314462…
06-07 16:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xff78f7…
06-07 15:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x8e5c79…
06-07 12:04:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x8dcbc9…
06-07 11:44:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcc359c…
06-07 11:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 9?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdca509…
06-06 22:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xf9ef3a…
06-06 22:34:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0x947791…
06-06 22:23:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x889fd8…
06-06 22:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xc7af8d…
06-06 22:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x6772a4…
06-06 22:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xd0cdb3…
06-06 22:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x6b5c46…
06-06 15:24:10	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 7?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x046768…
06-06 15:01:00	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x09ded1…
06-06 15:00:57	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x82acc6…
06-06 15:00:54	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0f368a…
06-06 15:00:48	Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x797964…
06-06 15:00:43	Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ac332…
06-06 15:00:40	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	41	16¢	$7	0xc7b21a…
06-06 15:00:33	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x14d9e0…
06-06 15:00:30	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x96dce1…
06-05 05:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x1a6449…
06-05 05:21:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8b9489…
06-04 19:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x853d20…
06-04 15:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x85b40d…
06-04 08:15:16	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x8f2843…
06-04 03:21:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xc90673…
06-03 23:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4bf7bc…
06-03 23:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x34ea90…
06-03 19:25:55	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdb2f1c…
06-03 19:17:01	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xadbc06…
06-03 18:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x79edf9…
06-03 18:00:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0x868b46…
06-03 17:40:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe9394a…
06-03 17:29:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfe6282…
06-03 17:23:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x13864b…
06-03 14:19:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0xf1712b…
06-03 12:04:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xcebb97…
06-03 11:37:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xb37e5b…
06-03 11:37:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x9a9367…
06-03 11:37:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x6f29bb…
06-03 11:37:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x49ecf8…
06-03 10:01:35	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x2e0c9a…
06-03 10:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x2e3768…
06-03 08:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x72dc63…
06-03 06:47:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x2287ae…
06-03 06:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on June 4?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x38b35a…
06-03 01:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0x0f67c1…
06-02 21:38:16	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xc37681…
06-02 21:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x4beff9…
06-02 21:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x0190d1…
06-02 21:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xb8aec3…
06-02 19:45:20	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x7941c7…
06-02 19:24:41	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xcc3242…
06-02 18:38:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xd45b6d…
06-02 07:57:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x575e4d…
06-02 07:57:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x0a6559…
06-01 18:16:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x80b4b9…
06-01 14:49:53	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x022497…
06-01 04:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xc29b0b…
05-31 18:55:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x781a87…
05-31 18:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0xa6e96f…
05-31 18:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xa02889…
05-31 17:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x945ee1…
05-31 16:00:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xe20d78…
05-31 14:18:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xf13542…
05-31 13:08:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xa06479…
05-31 12:26:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x736dbe…
05-31 12:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x85ed6f…
05-31 05:02:38	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf77aa6…
05-31 00:03:26	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x89cb28…
05-30 23:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x734ca3…
05-30 23:20:41	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa81543…
05-30 23:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1f5ff1…
05-30 23:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 1?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x03d691…