Soft-Flugelhorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.21K

Unrealized P&L

-$61

Hit rate

91.2%

Resolved

341

Trades

5,032

lifetime

Volume

$1.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$388

Open exposure

$2.69K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-01 08:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Politics

63% 66% -$11,609

Other

35% 70% +$7,089

Tech

2% 42% -$1,352

Crypto

0% 67% -$10

Sports

0% 0% -$324

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	+1,537	$1,296	89¢	$1.4K	+$72	09-23 13:28
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	+1,000	$820	86¢	$855	+$35	09-25 13:04
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	-925	-$96	28¢	$-255	-$159	05-10 09:17
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+10,212	$68	1¢	$148	+$80	09-23 03:25
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$29	29¢	$29	+$0	10-09 00:35
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+5,655	$110	0¢	$25	-$84	06-15 02:39
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	-100	-$16	11¢	$-11	+$5	09-21 14:04
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+348	$10	0¢	$1	-$10	05-10 09:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	135	$113.1K	57,586	60,091	-2,505	Yes	+$4,162	01-23 07:02
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	27	$98.7K	50,052	50,052	+0	No	+$1,141	02-10 03:50
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	26	$96.7K	49,322	49,422	-100	Yes	+$1,854	02-08 16:06
Iran leadership change by March 13?	14	$75.3K	37,785	37,785	+0	No	+$153	03-14 11:27
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	36	$65.7K	33,010	33,010	+0	Yes	+$232	05-08 13:02
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$61.4K	31,341	31,341	+0	No	+$157	02-22 13:55
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$59.9K	46,092	15,000	+31,092	No	+$1,151	02-21 04:44
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	6	$50.2K	25,370	25,370	+0	No	+$488	01-19 04:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$48.0K	49,022	0	+49,022	No	+$884	03-31 06:05
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	2	$47.8K	47,000	1,000	+46,000	No	+$186	02-15 00:46
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	1	$43.4K	43,500	0	+43,500	No	+$130	02-16 10:03
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	38	$43.2K	32,413	31,972	+440	No	+$141	02-26 23:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	40	$42.5K	83,098	9,160	+73,938	Yes	-$28,200	02-28 07:11
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	15	$40.9K	25,434	25,434	+0	Yes	+$8,204	04-07 23:08
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	17	$38.3K	38,966	0	+38,966	No	+$713	01-17 11:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$37.1K	32,931	32,931	+0	Yes	-$7,288	04-08 00:38
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 90 114	10	$35.1K	37,867	0	+37,867	Yes	+$2,788	01-19 16:50
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	67	$33.6K	17,922	18,349	-427	Yes	+$2,116	01-29 00:32
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	13	$31.1K	15,612	15,917	-305	No	+$419	01-17 06:20
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	25	$30.1K	16,085	16,085	+0	No	+$713	01-17 06:24
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	2	$28.7K	28,886	0	+28,886	No	+$189	02-18 22:59
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	63	$24.6K	8,614	16,721	-8,107	No	+$478	01-09 23:44
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	20	$23.8K	24,177	0	+24,177	No	+$427	02-19 15:41
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 180 199	24	$23.6K	12,172	12,172	+0	No	+$681	03-03 14:17
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	94	$23.1K	23,442	0	+23,442	No	+$120	05-19 23:03
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	35	$21.3K	12,360	11,260	+1,100	Yes	+$364	02-24 21:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	17	$21.1K	10,632	10,632	+0	No	+$80	03-15 13:13
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$19.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$40	01-16 05:58
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	4	$19.2K	9,748	9,748	+0	No	+$73	02-23 20:16
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	7	$18.3K	18,765	0	+18,765	No	+$491	02-21 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 08:15:33	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	239	99¢	$236	0xb92672…
11-01 06:56:04	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	826	99¢	$816	0xccd4b0…
10-26 03:06:14	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xbc12f3…
10-26 03:06:00	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x43771e…
10-25 17:06:51	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	69	64¢	$44	0xf57b42…
10-25 17:06:51	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0x32ae5e…
10-14 12:50:59	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x109604…
10-13 14:41:20	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	116	89¢	$103	0x14acac…
10-13 14:41:11	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0x5a4c4a…
10-13 14:41:05	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0x76843f…
10-13 14:02:25	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	849	81¢	$688	0x490771…
10-09 00:35:44	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	29¢	$28	0x0bc738…
10-08 23:34:45	Lai Ching-te visits US by December 31?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xa314ab…
10-08 19:05:23	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xee3f0f…
10-08 13:44:53	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x6a7ef3…
10-08 10:15:38	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x76ba30…
10-08 08:51:11	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	28	78¢	$22	0xf32439…
10-08 08:50:46	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	6	78¢	$4	0x846f7c…
10-08 08:26:25	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x82190b…
10-05 11:28:37	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x589c98…
09-25 16:53:50	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	236	73¢	$173	0xeccb17…
09-25 14:15:56	US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Yes	SELL	124	90¢	$112	0xcb6352…
09-25 13:04:45	Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0xd763ff…
09-25 12:32:11	US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x5fb9c9…
09-25 11:55:18	US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x77b42f…
09-25 11:50:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	69	73¢	$50	0x0e6ccd…
09-25 11:50:18	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	354	73¢	$258	0x41f29a…
09-25 02:00:30	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x12c9dd…
09-24 22:54:41	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x98eefd…
09-24 14:33:38	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb4c3da…
09-24 14:32:09	Will Trump say "Boeing" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x7d6bc3…
09-24 14:28:35	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	SELL	412	1¢	$4	0xa1301c…
09-24 14:28:30	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x56e32f…
09-24 14:07:44	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xdb2da3…
09-24 13:35:29	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	44	79¢	$35	0x753656…
09-24 12:14:30	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xd88e14…
09-24 05:37:56	Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?	No	SELL	79	94¢	$75	0x305bfd…
09-23 23:23:34	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x13a2bc…
09-23 23:11:25	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x06fcbe…
09-23 22:06:58	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x2f54e8…
09-23 20:35:37	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x42a261…
09-23 20:18:14	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	42	33¢	$14	0xf1d81b…
09-23 20:18:14	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x65cc8e…
09-23 20:04:05	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf84a9e…
09-23 19:57:16	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xdfca18…
09-23 19:57:16	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	42	32¢	$13	0x2fa5e9…
09-23 19:51:19	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	24	31¢	$7	0xbd75e2…
09-23 19:46:46	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0x297a66…
09-23 19:26:47	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	42	34¢	$14	0x7c0116…
09-23 19:25:10	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x77ac23…
09-23 19:21:46	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x3c8776…
09-23 19:09:08	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1a349c…
09-23 19:09:07	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x4ef1a9…
09-23 19:09:05	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	36	35¢	$13	0x20017c…
09-23 18:51:31	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x61785b…
09-23 18:28:20	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0xb5be39…
09-23 14:36:44	Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x7ca2e6…
09-23 13:28:46	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xa53d9e…
09-23 11:35:59	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	60	86¢	$52	0x543a9a…
09-23 10:43:49	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x876c32…
09-23 09:43:46	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x1d3cf8…
09-23 08:43:47	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xf7866f…
09-23 08:09:07	will trump say ai during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0xf6118d…
09-23 07:43:44	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x6e9d1b…
09-23 06:28:38	will trump say ai during xi jinpings state arrival	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xf09d9d…
09-23 04:43:16	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x865a75…
09-23 04:28:23	Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xe685f4…
09-23 03:25:32	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,592	1¢	$13	0x7b8f4c…
09-22 14:46:55	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,715	1¢	$26	0x88c835…
09-22 14:46:37	Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,905	1¢	$29	0xf8c718…
09-22 13:50:42	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	55	86¢	$47	0xcf8422…
09-22 12:26:15	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x94b06e…
09-22 06:00:33	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	47	82¢	$39	0xf738a0…
09-22 05:35:28	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	47	82¢	$39	0xeea285…
09-22 05:01:21	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x771e78…
09-21 16:38:00	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	74	82¢	$60	0xf69c01…
09-21 16:38:00	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xba442c…
09-21 14:49:56	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x3cd005…
09-21 14:48:12	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x29974e…
09-21 14:47:59	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x462a78…
09-21 14:20:36	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	167	85¢	$142	0x6dfbf2…
09-21 14:20:29	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	299	85¢	$254	0xf8ad6b…
09-21 14:05:27	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	No	BUY	277	84¢	$233	0xc88b12…
09-21 14:04:17	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xdabb29…
09-21 14:04:03	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	16¢	$2	0xf6cc98…
09-21 14:03:51	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	SELL	84	16¢	$13	0x97f618…
09-19 14:19:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	14¢	$24	0x5540ff…
09-18 14:44:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,659	20¢	$330	0xef4882…
09-18 14:39:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	545	11¢	$61	0xebfb99…
09-18 14:39:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	11¢	$6	0xcd0139…
09-18 14:39:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	11¢	$9	0xbdbdd8…
09-18 14:39:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	11¢	$7	0xffcd52…
09-18 14:28:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	832	1¢	$12	0x896baa…
09-18 14:27:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	436	1¢	$6	0x609236…
09-18 14:27:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	733	1¢	$10	0x5be266…
09-18 14:21:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	187	2¢	$5	0x404989…
09-18 14:19:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4af36f…
09-18 14:17:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x73cda8…
09-18 14:17:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7724a4…
09-18 13:09:47	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	659	70¢	$461	0x901c65…