Soft-Flugelhorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.48K

Unrealized P&L

+$46

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,919

lifetime

Volume

$1.78M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$454

Open exposure

$849

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-01 08:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

67% 100% +$2,480

Other

32% 0% $-0

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 251 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes		+949	$802	90¢	$849	+$46	06-01 08:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	135	$113.1K	57,586	60,091	-2,505	open	—	01-23 07:02
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	27	$98.7K	50,052	50,052	+0	open	—	02-10 03:50
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	26	$96.7K	49,322	49,422	-100	open	—	02-08 16:06
Iran leadership change by March 13?	14	$75.3K	37,785	37,785	+0	open	—	03-14 11:27
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$61.4K	31,341	31,341	+0	open	—	02-22 13:55
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	7	$59.9K	46,092	15,000	+31,092	open	—	02-21 04:44
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	6	$50.2K	25,370	25,370	+0	open	—	01-19 04:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$48.0K	49,022	0	+49,022	open	—	03-31 06:05
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	2	$47.8K	47,000	1,000	+46,000	open	—	02-15 00:46
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	1	$43.4K	43,500	0	+43,500	open	—	02-16 10:03
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	38	$43.2K	32,413	31,972	+440	open	—	02-26 23:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	40	$42.5K	83,098	9,160	+73,938	open	—	02-28 07:11
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	15	$40.9K	25,434	25,434	+0	open	—	04-07 23:08
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	17	$38.3K	38,966	0	+38,966	open	—	01-17 11:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$37.1K	32,931	32,931	+0	open	—	04-08 00:38
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 90 114	10	$35.1K	37,867	0	+37,867	open	—	01-19 16:50
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	67	$33.6K	17,922	18,349	-427	open	—	01-29 00:32
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	35	$32.7K	33,010	0	+33,010	open	—	04-13 05:39
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	13	$31.1K	15,612	15,917	-305	open	—	01-17 06:20
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	25	$30.1K	16,085	16,085	+0	open	—	01-17 06:24
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	2	$28.7K	28,886	0	+28,886	open	—	02-18 22:59
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	63	$24.6K	8,614	16,721	-8,107	open	—	01-09 23:44
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	20	$23.8K	24,177	0	+24,177	open	—	02-19 15:41
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 180 199	24	$23.6K	12,172	12,172	+0	open	—	03-03 14:17
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	35	$21.3K	12,360	11,260	+1,100	open	—	02-24 21:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	17	$21.1K	10,632	10,632	+0	open	—	03-15 13:13
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$19.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	01-16 05:58
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	4	$19.2K	9,748	9,748	+0	open	—	02-23 20:16
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	7	$18.3K	18,765	0	+18,765	open	—	02-21 07:16
Iran leadership change by April 30?	34	$17.3K	9,399	9,399	+0	open	—	04-20 03:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 08:41:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe62239…
06-01 08:41:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd93750…
06-01 08:41:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xcd9251…
06-01 08:41:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xa3c88f…
06-01 08:41:38	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x976b10…
06-01 08:40:33	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0f4405…
06-01 08:21:13	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe309a9…
06-01 08:07:55	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd7fdc8…
06-01 08:01:12	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x55f55f…
06-01 07:45:48	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x7013b5…
06-01 07:45:48	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x190423…
06-01 07:41:52	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xdd7276…
06-01 07:09:17	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x18fadf…
06-01 06:04:22	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xee26f2…
06-01 04:11:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xdcbd30…
05-31 15:30:21	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x35be72…
05-31 14:54:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	1¢	$16	0x1656d1…
05-31 14:53:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	20,138	0¢	$20	0xf1f848…
05-30 15:01:08	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xbe10fd…
05-30 14:59:30	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8517a3…
05-30 14:59:30	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x23028d…
05-30 14:59:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xcc1d15…
05-30 14:59:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xb8a8eb…
05-30 14:59:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x63b78b…
05-30 14:59:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5ff036…
05-30 14:59:29	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x259af0…
05-30 14:59:27	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xb4e760…
05-30 14:59:27	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xa51870…
05-30 14:59:27	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8155dc…
05-30 14:59:27	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2cb941…
05-30 14:59:27	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x15e960…
05-30 13:59:31	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x13d184…
05-30 13:58:26	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x184d4f…
05-30 13:07:58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe1d834…
05-30 13:07:58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$7	0xb5991d…
05-30 13:07:58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x541dad…
05-30 12:29:13	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xef43ba…
05-30 12:19:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x8d601c…
05-30 12:19:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x71795f…
05-30 12:19:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x2515e4…
05-30 12:19:09	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0d535e…
05-30 12:19:07	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xf5c863…
05-30 12:19:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x4b679d…
05-30 12:19:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x1012c0…
05-30 12:18:08	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x3b7c91…
05-29 15:24:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	2,666	1¢	$19	0x4793bb…
05-29 15:24:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	437	1¢	$3	0xceb185…
05-29 15:16:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0x8049be…
05-29 15:12:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	272	1¢	$3	0x114705…
05-29 15:12:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	317	1¢	$4	0x955172…
05-28 19:30:50	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x988356…
05-28 18:51:17	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc36747…
05-28 14:48:41	Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	133	96¢	$128	0xaff3fc…
05-28 12:49:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xbfa83a…
05-28 12:49:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb0ef6c…
05-28 12:49:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8f21ea…
05-28 12:49:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x74ad71…
05-28 12:49:51	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x26f4da…
05-28 12:44:56	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xdfba92…
05-28 12:44:50	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xcda550…
05-22 16:51:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	1,084	6¢	$65	0x59f60b…
05-20 15:13:34	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	230	47¢	$109	0x9fb995…
05-20 15:12:38	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	122	47¢	$57	0x0cd56e…
05-19 05:09:06	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	1,984	6¢	$119	0x84efa9…
05-19 02:22:05	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x228004…
05-18 21:53:29	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,026	0¢	$1	0x516dbf…
05-18 21:03:12	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xb990d9…
05-18 20:14:42	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xa5c232…
05-18 17:04:25	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xc624a2…
05-18 16:26:20	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,460	0¢	$1	0x0c315c…
05-18 16:23:32	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,329	0¢	$1	0xa9270d…
05-18 16:04:34	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	796	99¢	$788	0xf0e25a…
05-18 15:47:08	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	672	0¢	$1	0x00322c…
05-18 10:58:10	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	4,622	0¢	$9	0xabf87d…
05-18 10:50:56	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x1fd717…
05-18 10:17:48	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	338	0¢	$1	0x8272fd…
05-18 03:41:38	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	11¢	$134	0x6a0d8c…
05-17 15:50:35	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,474	9¢	$127	0x2a637d…
05-15 15:09:57	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15,661	100¢	$15,629	0xf620e8…
05-15 15:09:53	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	646	100¢	$645	0xa245dc…
05-13 14:51:41	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	423	40¢	$169	0xb5e97d…
05-12 23:43:21	Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0xdfb5c8…
05-11 16:42:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	7¢	$210	0x2a1b88…
05-11 15:00:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	795	99¢	$787	0x19ee16…
05-10 23:05:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10,000	14¢	$1,400	0xc462a6…
05-10 17:22:10	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	400	87¢	$347	0xefeb19…
05-10 16:47:10	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xf4064a…
05-10 16:45:06	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x4ce0af…
05-10 16:44:29	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	151	87¢	$130	0xb77e15…
05-10 09:35:54	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	405	5¢	$19	0x5de888…
05-10 09:35:49	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	405	5¢	$19	0xc0b164…
05-10 09:35:39	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	405	5¢	$19	0xfe9ab2…
05-10 09:35:33	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	207	5¢	$11	0xacf3ec…
05-09 15:33:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5,000	21¢	$1,050	0x20550d…
05-09 15:32:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10,000	21¢	$2,100	0x5072cb…
05-08 15:31:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	30¢	$15	0x74f4ad…
05-08 13:09:41	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0d951c…
05-08 13:09:20	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x151c9f…
05-08 13:08:55	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd967b6…
05-08 13:08:03	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,585	99¢	$1,570	0x1cef9f…