Outlying-Discrimination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$354

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.9%

Resolved

Trades

337

lifetime

Volume

$28.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 07-04 09:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Politics

44% 85% +$194

Other

43% 86% +$167

Sports

13% 25% -$7

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	17	$8.1K	4,092	4,092	+0	No	+$85	06-20 19:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	19	$3.3K	1,858	1,858	+0	No	+$52	06-23 17:45
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	74	$3.0K	2,805	296	+2,510	No	+$69	07-01 01:20
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	15	$1.8K	911	911	+0	No	+$34	07-04 08:58
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	9	$1.6K	959	959	+0	open	—	07-04 08:59
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$1.4K	838	838	+0	No	-$11	07-04 09:00
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$5	07-04 08:59
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$959	519	519	+0	No	-$1	07-04 08:59
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	15	$731	380	380	+0	open	—	06-21 20:50
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$673	677	0	+677	No	+$3	05-31 03:21
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	14	$664	339	339	+0	No	+$10	07-04 08:59
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	13	$648	667	0	+667	Yes	+$19	06-17 23:56
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	5	$523	297	238	+59	No	-$3	06-08 08:17
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	3	$466	471	0	+471	Yes	+$5	06-18 00:08
israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	4	$363	195	195	+0	No	+$7	07-04 09:01
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	2	$323	186	147	+39	Yes	-$2	06-08 08:20
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	3	$297	149	149	+0	open	—	06-04 06:23
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	5	$292	157	157	+0	No	-$12	07-04 09:00
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	5	$289	291	0	+291	Yes	+$2	06-18 00:11
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	6	$263	164	164	+0	open	—	07-04 09:00
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	3	$209	232	0	+232	Yes	+$23	06-01 07:08
starmer out by july 31 2026	9	$202	229	0	+229	Yes	+$27	06-21 20:38
starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	4	$196	210	0	+210	Yes	+$14	06-20 18:43
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	5	$178	151	151	+0	open	—	07-04 09:00
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	4	$102	52	52	+0	Yes	+$0	07-04 09:00
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	10	$102	57	56	+0	No	+$1	06-18 03:23
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	2	$73	38	38	+0	No	+$1	06-18 03:19
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$67	85	85	+0	open	—	07-04 09:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	17	$59	32	32	+0	No	$0	06-12 17:04
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	4	$56	59	0	+59	Yes	+$3	06-03 03:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 09:01:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x453065…
07-04 09:01:11	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x41357f…
07-04 09:01:04	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0x85f060…
07-04 09:00:58	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	27	92¢	$24	0xa3eae1…
07-04 09:00:49	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0xaff11f…
07-04 09:00:43	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	85	40¢	$34	0x44a376…
07-04 09:00:35	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	59	83¢	$49	0x3bf2fc…
07-04 09:00:26	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	51¢	$77	0x35724f…
07-04 09:00:02	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	90¢	$148	0x4a2ac1…
07-04 08:59:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	194	95¢	$185	0x264711…
07-04 08:59:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	314	100¢	$313	0xe8bf65…
07-04 08:59:34	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	519	92¢	$479	0xda1435…
07-04 08:59:23	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	700	98¢	$682	0xb68bb8…
07-04 08:59:02	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	959	83¢	$796	0xa51a9e…
07-04 08:58:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	911	99¢	$902	0x9e59d1…
07-04 08:45:35	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	780	83¢	$645	0x3e9782…
07-04 04:03:01	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0xfb3888…
07-04 00:07:47	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	253	81¢	$206	0x6359b3…
07-04 00:04:25	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	132	86¢	$113	0xeaf4be…
07-04 00:04:25	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x35394d…
07-04 00:04:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	168	86¢	$145	0xba2c32…
07-04 00:04:22	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x2eb657…
07-03 23:31:05	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16	84¢	$13	0x0752ba…
07-03 23:31:04	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$6	0x49ac51…
07-03 23:30:59	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xd17199…
07-03 23:30:44	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x4ac480…
07-03 23:30:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	84¢	$3	0x8f75ba…
07-03 23:30:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	195	84¢	$164	0x357df6…
07-03 23:30:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x09997e…
07-03 09:36:37	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	354	93¢	$329	0x384c68…
07-02 21:11:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xba6acc…
07-02 20:39:46	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x96a7c6…
07-02 20:28:58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x229b49…
07-02 20:26:14	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x2b1cf2…
07-02 20:21:53	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0xd88e75…
07-02 20:11:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x82f36e…
07-02 19:53:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$64	0xfb37df…
07-02 19:32:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x15c2ae…
07-02 18:44:59	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf76340…
07-02 02:26:04	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	165	92¢	$151	0x4026b6…
07-01 01:20:58	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x430d14…
07-01 01:09:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xadd4d2…
07-01 01:02:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0xd51ec5…
07-01 00:51:04	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x67efb8…
07-01 00:21:05	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x22530c…
06-30 23:51:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x46f3a8…
06-30 23:19:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x436f61…
06-30 23:03:13	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x0e0223…
06-30 23:03:11	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xb25663…
06-30 22:56:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xbf9d2e…
06-30 22:31:10	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x22bffd…
06-30 22:04:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8dbc10…
06-30 22:04:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x017f0b…
06-30 22:04:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x88c2c1…
06-30 22:04:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfd6cc0…
06-30 22:04:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9addf6…
06-30 22:04:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x18e9ad…
06-30 22:04:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd0a8c9…
06-30 22:04:32	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x09f5ab…
06-30 22:04:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf91d58…
06-30 22:04:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfba2a9…
06-30 22:04:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x58b6cd…
06-30 22:04:28	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc44df1…
06-30 22:04:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x899448…
06-30 22:04:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0d759f…
06-30 22:04:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0a40bc…
06-30 22:04:23	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x18d93a…
06-30 22:04:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x6d808a…
06-30 22:04:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbfbfe2…
06-30 22:04:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb90d36…
06-30 22:04:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfee0bf…
06-30 22:04:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x813a8d…
06-30 22:04:16	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3c7eda…
06-30 22:04:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbb7bfa…
06-30 22:04:14	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xaf618c…
06-30 22:04:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7b18d1…
06-30 22:04:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x754e47…
06-30 22:04:10	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xfaecb8…
06-30 22:04:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x75de16…
06-30 22:04:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x1e8490…
06-30 22:04:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5e4136…
06-30 22:04:05	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3c15ba…
06-30 22:04:04	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd325d3…
06-30 22:04:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa27708…
06-30 22:04:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x613c7c…
06-30 22:03:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8902fe…
06-30 22:03:44	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x311c65…
06-30 20:53:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$91	0xb6448f…
06-30 20:53:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x318ae6…
06-30 20:53:19	Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x8b1664…
06-30 20:53:14	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x06ebbc…
06-29 03:51:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	73	97¢	$71	0x53f2df…
06-29 03:50:53	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8a71ea…
06-29 03:50:23	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0xb276ad…
06-29 03:40:58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0d9970…
06-28 22:03:04	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x948d84…
06-28 22:02:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xe8b613…
06-25 08:23:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0x6bcd75…
06-25 08:23:10	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x7523ac…
06-25 08:17:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x384f81…