Rectangular-Past — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.79K

Unrealized P&L

+$243

Hit rate

74.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$85.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$905

Open exposure

$1.24K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-20 19:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Politics

49% 66% -$826

Other

33% 59% +$1,837

Tech

15% 83% +$1,970

Crypto

4% 67% -$189

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		+1,389	$1,000	90¢	$1.2K	+$243	09-20 19:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$7.2K	4,405	4,405	+0	Yes	+$1,203	02-22 13:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$4.6K	3,654	3,654	+0	No	+$645	05-23 20:44
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$3.5K	2,611	2,611	+0	No	+$458	03-21 08:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$3.2K	0	3,279	-3,279	No	-$110	05-23 20:45
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$3.0K	4,054	0	+4,054	Yes	-$3,000	02-19 12:00
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	2	$2.6K	1,621	1,621	+0	No	+$556	02-27 13:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$2.4K	1,587	1,587	+0	No	+$434	05-23 20:45
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.4K	1,429	1,429	+0	No	+$356	06-23 15:20
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	2	$2.3K	1,348	1,348	+0	No	+$321	03-30 21:45
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,236	1,236	+0	No	+$206	04-16 09:06
si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	4	$2.2K	3,707	400	+3,307	Yes	+$1,508	01-12 17:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,551	1,551	+0	Yes	+$133	05-31 06:53
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$2.0K	1,786	1,786	+0	No	+$1,036	07-18 10:39
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	1	$2.0K	6,523	0	+6,523	No	-$2,000	02-24 15:08
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	1	$2.0K	3,064	0	+3,064	No	+$1,064	01-30 11:17
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	2	$1.6K	1,111	1,111	+0	No	+$589	05-23 20:47
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	2	$1.4K	943	943	+0	No	+$377	08-13 10:05
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	2	$1.3K	795	795	+0	No	+$280	05-23 20:47
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$1.2K	1,667	1,667	+0	Yes	+$187	06-12 13:44
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$1.2K	764	764	+0	No	+$167	05-23 20:44
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$1.2K	870	870	+0	No	+$153	08-13 10:03
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$1.1K	3,846	3,846	+0	No	+$141	07-18 10:38
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$1.1K	1,510	1,510	+0	No	+$81	06-05 21:24
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	2	$1.0K	1,615	0	+1,615	No	+$614	02-25 08:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	1	$1.0K	1,433	0	+1,433	Yes	-$1,000	04-05 17:09
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	1	$1.0K	1,343	0	+1,343	Yes	+$343	05-10 14:50
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	1	$1.0K	1,429	0	+1,429	No	+$429	04-08 18:52
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	1	$1.0K	1,586	0	+1,586	No	+$586	03-07 13:30
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,389	0	+1,389	open	—	09-20 19:18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1	$1000	1,750	0	+1,750	Yes	-$1,000	03-18 10:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 19:18:55	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,389	72¢	$1,000	0x5ca7b5…
09-02 12:01:09	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	893	56¢	$500	0xfcb6c9…
08-13 10:05:09	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	943	93¢	$877	0x07dc2b…
08-13 10:03:43	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	870	75¢	$653	0x1e9d82…
07-21 20:58:36	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693 459	No	BUY	822	61¢	$500	0x8cf8f2…
07-18 10:39:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	1,786	86¢	$1,536	0x29c4bc…
07-18 10:38:12	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	3,846	17¢	$641	0x2d7ab8…
07-13 07:26:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	870	57¢	$500	0xbeaea4…
07-10 13:14:34	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	679	74¢	$500	0xafab1c…
07-10 13:14:10	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	665	75¢	$500	0x044adc…
07-06 11:32:56	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	943	53¢	$500	0x737fde…
07-06 11:32:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	1,786	28¢	$500	0xacbfd6…
06-23 15:21:14	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	909	55¢	$500	0x8831cd…
06-23 15:20:38	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,429	95¢	$1,356	0x18dfb6…
06-23 15:20:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	3,846	13¢	$500	0x9a34d9…
06-19 14:08:29	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,368	36¢	$487	0xfdb4c3…
06-19 12:16:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,368	37¢	$500	0x042aac…
06-19 12:15:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	1,613	31¢	$500	0xa8d44f…
06-12 13:44:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,667	41¢	$687	0x0bfa8d…
06-05 21:24:37	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,510	38¢	$581	0xe63dbf…
06-05 21:23:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,667	30¢	$500	0x8dff39…
06-05 21:23:04	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	725	69¢	$500	0x0cefd1…
06-05 21:21:43	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	2,381	21¢	$500	0x2e3e02…
05-31 18:13:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0x05d040…
05-31 10:49:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,190	42¢	$500	0xd731ad…
05-31 06:53:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,551	73¢	$1,133	0x6b378a…
05-23 21:31:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	546	85¢	$464	0x00dce5…
05-23 20:47:20	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	1,111	98¢	$1,089	0xfb69a3…
05-23 20:47:11	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	SELL	795	98¢	$780	0x9d282e…
05-23 20:45:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	3,279	97¢	$3,169	0x91c0fb…
05-23 20:45:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	1,587	90¢	$1,434	0xf665d2…
05-23 20:44:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	764	87¢	$667	0x925067…
05-23 20:44:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1,613	64¢	$1,032	0xc3af36…
05-20 21:00:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	546	67¢	$366	0xa83666…
05-19 18:26:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	764	65¢	$500	0xf5c7d9…
05-15 18:31:40	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0xe89449…
05-14 15:16:33	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,597	63¢	$1,000	0x8b52d0…
05-14 15:16:12	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	BUY	795	63¢	$500	0x661706…
05-14 15:15:46	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	1,111	45¢	$500	0xfac7e6…
05-12 16:10:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	1,587	63¢	$1,000	0x375ca9…
05-11 18:39:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,613	62¢	$1,000	0x84ad03…
05-10 14:50:07	Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	1,343	74¢	$1,000	0xef10ec…
05-09 14:53:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,551	64¢	$1,000	0xbf8054…
05-07 16:12:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2,041	79¢	$1,612	0x9ccc3d…
05-05 04:15:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2,041	49¢	$1,000	0x30d025…
05-04 12:24:22	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,868	27¢	$500	0xeb607e…
05-04 12:23:36	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,510	33¢	$500	0xe42984…
05-04 12:22:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,750	57¢	$1,000	0xdd791b…
04-18 08:33:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2,016	25¢	$500	0xce1dad…
04-16 09:06:06	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,236	98¢	$1,206	0x7b030a…
04-12 16:19:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	393	59¢	$232	0x7127b0…
04-11 06:52:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,676	60¢	$1,000	0xbf5531…
04-09 15:00:43	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,765	57¢	$1,000	0x7c39c1…
04-08 18:52:57	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0x3b6d39…
04-05 17:09:37	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	1,433	70¢	$1,000	0x8b2b47…
04-04 18:33:55	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,384	72¢	$1,000	0x94bc61…
04-03 16:57:31	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	1,418	71¢	$1,000	0x9e079f…
04-03 13:20:03	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,236	81¢	$1,000	0x38921c…
04-02 16:02:19	will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	1,306	77¢	$1,000	0x24c31b…
03-30 21:45:21	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	SELL	1,348	98¢	$1,321	0xf7ed07…
03-30 16:08:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	1,498	66¢	$981	0xe372fa…
03-29 15:45:44	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,686	59¢	$1,000	0x77ec07…
03-29 15:36:58	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	1,419	70¢	$1,000	0xc03397…
03-28 18:16:45	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	1,348	74¢	$1,000	0xf9e9e8…
03-26 13:18:15	will spacex file for an ipo by march 27 2026	No	BUY	1,282	78¢	$1,000	0x5fab50…
03-21 08:12:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	2,611	75¢	$1,958	0x0bdce8…
03-18 10:30:45	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	1,750	57¢	$1,000	0xd356f8…
03-10 18:01:09	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	1,503	67¢	$1,000	0xb040d7…
03-09 12:41:29	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	No	BUY	1,554	64¢	$1,000	0x056705…
03-07 13:30:49	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	1,586	63¢	$1,000	0xd5b8f0…
03-05 11:12:17	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	2,611	57¢	$1,500	0xb5ebf6…
03-05 07:22:31	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	1,555	64¢	$1,000	0x4f0ef9…
03-03 20:46:57	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x067064…
03-03 20:11:31	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xff2b6e…
03-03 20:00:49	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	203	57¢	$116	0xcb9f80…
03-03 18:27:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	2,203	23¢	$500	0x13028f…
03-03 16:40:53	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	1,724	29¢	$500	0xa3252e…
02-27 13:46:31	Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	SELL	1,621	96¢	$1,556	0xa33b63…
02-25 08:44:28	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	No	BUY	788	62¢	$488	0xae021a…
02-25 08:44:16	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	No	BUY	827	62¢	$513	0xc77a6f…
02-24 15:08:30	will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	6,523	31¢	$2,000	0xa53548…
02-22 13:49:16	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	SELL	4,405	95¢	$4,203	0xca4200…
02-19 12:00:42	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	4,054	74¢	$3,000	0x7d1b5a…
02-18 18:43:00	Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	BUY	1,621	62¢	$1,000	0xa02e25…
02-18 12:50:30	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	BUY	1,336	37¢	$500	0x74e6c5…
02-17 09:44:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	1,468	68¢	$1,000	0x601754…
02-17 09:43:53	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	2,937	68¢	$2,000	0xed37db…
01-30 22:15:38	will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	Yes	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0x72d472…
01-30 11:17:10	Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	3,064	65¢	$2,000	0x9a9293…
01-12 17:05:45	si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	Yes	BUY	600	98¢	$588	0xcdc49e…
01-12 17:02:55	si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	Yes	BUY	403	98¢	$395	0x95f4a6…
01-10 08:55:14	si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	Yes	SELL	400	46¢	$184	0xc65f39…
01-01 09:20:11	si hit 85 high jan 2026 851 188 261	Yes	BUY	2,704	37¢	$1,000	0x0b747c…
01-01 09:19:49	si hit 80 high jan 2026 988 594 987	Yes	BUY	639	47¢	$300	0xb1905a…