Realistic-Fulfillment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$172

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.1%

Resolved

109

Trades

515

lifetime

Volume

$6.94K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 05-15 17:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 49% +$164

Politics

16% — —

Other

10% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	19	$489	272	272	+0	open	—	05-15 09:21
btc updown 5m 1773027600	5	$215	308	211	+97	open	—	03-09 03:44
btc updown 5m 1773028200	2	$214	167	165	+2	open	—	03-09 03:55
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$173	100	100	+0	open	—	03-05 22:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	2	$151	164	164	+0	Up	+$54	05-10 03:33
btc updown 5m 1773027000	2	$138	91	90	+1	open	—	03-09 03:34
will iran strike israel on march 6	8	$135	383	222	+162	open	—	03-08 23:28
btc updown 5m 1773176700	2	$129	217	215	+2	open	—	03-10 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$127	115	115	+0	Up	+$34	05-10 04:14
btc updown 5m 1773026700	3	$121	131	75	+57	open	—	03-09 03:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	3	$114	363	363	+0	Down	+$21	05-10 04:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$114	119	119	+0	open	—	03-06 04:46
btc updown 5m 1773027900	3	$113	216	57	+159	open	—	03-09 03:49
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	3	$111	65	65	+0	open	—	03-11 02:30
will angeliki stogia win the gorton and denton by election	6	$110	80	37	+43	open	—	02-27 04:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	2	$97	110	110	+0	open	—	05-15 17:37
btc updown 5m 1773026100	2	$93	54	54	+1	open	—	03-09 03:19
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$85	43	43	+0	Yes	+$0	05-10 02:59
btc updown 5m 1773025200	2	$80	42	42	+0	open	—	03-09 03:04
btc updown 5m 1773027300	4	$79	157	154	+2	open	—	03-09 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	7	$78	98	72	+26	Down	$-2	05-10 01:38
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	5	$73	81	15	+66	open	—	03-08 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$71	76	76	+0	open	—	05-15 17:12
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	3	$66	99	99	+0	open	—	03-08 21:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	6	$65	95	90	+5	Up	+$20	05-09 23:14
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	3	$62	70	10	+60	open	—	03-06 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	3	$56	179	134	+44	Down	+$12	05-10 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	4	$54	74	74	+0	open	—	05-14 21:31
btc updown 5m 1773196200	1	$53	214	0	+214	open	—	03-11 02:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	4	$52	88	70	+18	Up	+$20	05-10 01:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 17:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	132	37¢	$48	0x37300f…
05-15 17:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	SELL	110	48¢	$53	0x7bebae…
05-15 17:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	110	40¢	$44	0xc1bb49…
05-15 17:35:05	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	42¢	$11	0x0c0d37…
05-15 17:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	93	53¢	$49	0x215f95…
05-15 17:31:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x223249…
05-15 17:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x4ae922…
05-15 17:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0x4a0ab0…
05-15 17:22:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	81	48¢	$39	0x7baf82…
05-15 17:22:15	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x981bf8…
05-15 17:15:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	87	45¢	$39	0x9d947a…
05-15 17:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	76	55¢	$42	0xa4b712…
05-15 17:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	76	38¢	$29	0x8a5fc7…
05-15 17:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xdc2d0b…
05-15 17:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x19df9c…
05-15 09:24:09	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x5f556c…
05-15 09:21:10	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xe0affc…
05-15 03:30:30	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xc52e1c…
05-15 01:02:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xf64962…
05-15 00:53:25	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb8f6b4…
05-15 00:51:54	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x4537a7…
05-15 00:51:10	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x24ebc9…
05-14 23:49:01	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xc9ad47…
05-14 23:00:15	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x8e1b98…
05-14 21:36:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0xdb3ebe…
05-14 21:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x6d571d…
05-14 21:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x5c3e7a…
05-14 21:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x861b90…
05-14 21:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	24	50¢	$12	0x1c9603…
05-14 21:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x80c7ff…
05-14 21:28:22	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xda6fa5…
05-14 20:58:55	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x965108…
05-14 20:06:42	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	83	11¢	$9	0x5220ec…
05-14 04:26:27	Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31?	No	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0x9ec009…
05-14 04:26:15	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xfaffb0…
05-14 04:25:47	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x7b6adc…
05-14 03:27:25	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x3e264d…
05-14 03:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x7a51aa…
05-14 03:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x6eba8d…
05-14 03:19:26	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x9c6f27…
05-14 02:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	127	15¢	$20	0x836837…
05-14 01:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	15	77¢	$12	0xe2fb11…
05-14 01:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x762a22…
05-14 01:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x427e5c…
05-14 01:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	56	45¢	$25	0x26e0b3…
05-14 01:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x2ae281…
05-14 01:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	40	41¢	$16	0x624596…
05-14 01:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x4b2c2b…
05-14 01:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xff8c44…
05-14 01:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe9aaf7…
05-14 01:25:22	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf7a50f…
05-14 01:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	37	49¢	$18	0x92f6d2…
05-14 01:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x3d3d70…
05-14 01:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	93	17¢	$16	0xb794ce…
05-14 01:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	93	10¢	$9	0x44ee7b…
05-14 01:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x98fee4…
05-14 01:10:52	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$2	0xb60feb…
05-13 03:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x2faba2…
05-13 03:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x0579b6…
05-13 03:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x586a74…
05-13 03:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0xd8dbed…
05-13 03:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x97964a…
05-13 03:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xa2428a…
05-13 03:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x306017…
05-13 03:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	27	54¢	$15	0xd0a2bb…
05-13 03:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x1aca7d…
05-13 03:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xfd6cce…
05-13 03:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x951636…
05-13 03:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	26	48¢	$13	0x68dc85…
05-13 03:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x8c4c81…
05-13 02:51:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	56	42¢	$23	0x363953…
05-13 02:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xffb79c…
05-13 02:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa629b9…
05-13 02:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xee2ad5…
05-13 02:21:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0xa8610b…
05-13 02:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xca5bac…
05-13 02:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0x6fdcb3…
05-13 02:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0xf828be…
05-13 02:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xcf76a0…
05-13 02:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x654751…
05-13 02:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x9d97ac…
05-13 02:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x190617…
05-13 02:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0x5da15b…
05-13 01:54:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xcbed38…
05-13 01:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	36	62¢	$22	0x052ceb…
05-13 01:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xcfe7f0…
05-13 01:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	31	56¢	$18	0xadee9f…
05-13 01:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x7957da…
05-13 01:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x26b50b…
05-13 01:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	125	12¢	$15	0x26b363…
05-13 01:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xec7c47…
05-13 01:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x32a3c3…
05-13 01:21:49	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xc7b6ce…
05-13 01:21:19	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xc190ec…
05-13 01:18:03	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x871047…
05-13 01:18:03	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x34d081…
05-11 18:22:14	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x43a55c…
05-11 18:20:05	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	81	77¢	$62	0xf18cd6…
05-11 06:34:55	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	27	92¢	$25	0xcd9418…
05-10 17:41:48	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x7d9954…